Workforce analysis using data mining and linear regression to understand HIV/AIDS prevalence patterns

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) depends on sufficient supply of health workforce in each country. Although country-level data support this contention, it has been difficult to evaluate health workforce supply and MDG outcomes at the country level. The purpose of the study was to examine the association between the health workforce, particularly the nursing workforce, and the achievement of the MDGs, taking into account other factors known to influence health status, such as socioeconomic indicators.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A merged data set that includes country-level MDG outcomes, workforce statistics, and general socioeconomic indicators was utilized for the present study. Data were obtained from the Global Human Resources for Health Atlas 2004, the WHO Statistical Information System (WHOSIS) 2000, UN Fund for Development and Population Assistance (UNFDPA) 2000, the International Council of Nurses "Nursing in the World", and the WHO/UNAIDS database.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The main factors in understanding HIV/AIDS prevalence rates are physician density followed by female literacy rates and nursing density in the country. Using general linear model approaches, increased physician and nurse density (number of physicians or nurses per population) was associated with lower adult HIV/AIDS prevalence rate, even when controlling for socioeconomic indicators.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Increased nurse and physician density are associated with improved health outcomes, suggesting that countries aiming to attain the MDGs related to HIV/AIDS would do well to invest in their health workforce. Implications for international and country level policy are discussed.</p

Risk factors for virological failure and subtherapeutic antiretroviral drug concentrations in HIV-positive adults treated in rural northwestern Uganda

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Little is known about immunovirological treatment outcomes and adherence in HIV/AIDS patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) treated using a simplified management approach in rural areas of developing countries, or about the main factors influencing those outcomes in clinical practice. METHODS: Cross-sectional immunovirological, pharmacological, and adherence outcomes were evaluated in all patients alive and on fixed-dose ART combinations for 24 months, and in a random sample of those treated for 12 months. Risk factors for virological failure (>1,000 copies/mL) and subtherapeutic antiretroviral (ARV) concentrations were investigated with multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: At 12 and 24 months of ART, 72% (n=701) and 70% (n=369) of patients, respectively, were alive and in care. About 8% and 38% of patients, respectively, were diagnosed with immunological failure; and 75% and 72% of patients, respectively, had undetectable HIV RNA (<400 copies/mL). Risk factors for virological failure (>1,000 copies/mL) were poor adherence, tuberculosis diagnosed after ART initiation, subtherapeutic NNRTI concentrations, general clinical symptoms, and lower weight than at baseline. About 14% of patients had low ARV plasma concentrations. Digestive symptoms and poor adherence to ART were risk factors for low ARV plasma concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to improve both access to care and patient management to achieve better immunological and virological outcomes on ART are necessary to maximize the duration of first-line therapy

Nurse led, primary care based antiretroviral treatment versus hospital care: a controlled prospective study in Swaziland

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Antiretroviral treatment services delivered in hospital settings in Africa increasingly lack capacity to meet demand and are difficult to access by patients. We evaluate the effectiveness of nurse led primary care based antiretroviral treatment by comparison with usual hospital care in a typical rural sub Saharan African setting.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We undertook a prospective, controlled evaluation of planned service change in Lubombo, Swaziland. Clinically stable adults with a CD4 count > 100 and on antiretroviral treatment for at least four weeks at the district hospital were assigned to either nurse led primary care based antiretroviral treatment care or usual hospital care. Assignment depended on the location of the nearest primary care clinic. The main outcome measures were clinic attendance and patient experience.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Those receiving primary care based treatment were less likely to miss an appointment compared with those continuing to receive hospital care (RR 0·37, <it>p </it>< 0·0001). Average travel cost was half that of those receiving hospital care (<it>p </it>= 0·001). Those receiving primary care based, nurse led care were more likely to be satisfied in the ability of staff to manage their condition (RR 1·23, <it>p </it>= 0·003). There was no significant difference in loss to follow-up or other health related outcomes in modified intention to treat analysis. Multilevel, multivariable regression identified little inter-cluster variation.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Clinic attendance and patient experience are better with nurse led primary care based antiretroviral treatment care than with hospital care; health related outcomes appear equally good. This evidence supports efforts of the WHO to scale-up universal access to antiretroviral treatment in sub Saharan Africa.</p

Estimating the Capacity for ART Provision in Tanzania with the Use of Data on Staff Productivity and Patient Losses

BACKGROUND: International targets for access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) have over-estimated the capacity of health systems in low-income countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The WHO target for number on treatment by end 2005 for Tanzania was 10 times higher than actually achieved. The target of the national Care and Treatment Plan (CTP) was also not reached. We aimed at estimating the capacity for ART provision and created five scenarios for ART production given existing resource limitations. METHODS: A situation analysis including scrutiny of staff factors, such as available data on staff and patient factors including access to ART and patient losses, made us conclude that the lack of clinical staff is the main limiting factor for ART scale-up, assuming that sufficient drugs and supplies are provided by donors. We created a simple formula to estimate the number of patients on ART based on availability and productivity of clinical staff, time needed to initiate vs maintain a patient on ART and patient losses using five different scenarios with varying levels of these parameters. FINDINGS: Our scenario assuming medium productivity (40% higher than that observed in 2002) and medium loss of patients (20% in addition to 15% first-year mortality) coincides with the actual reported number of patients initiated on ART up to 2008, but is considerably below the national CTP target of 90% coverage for 2009, corresponding to 420,000 on ART and 710,000 life-years saved (LY's). Our analysis suggests that a coverage of 40% or 175,000 on treatment and 350,000 LY's saved is more achievable. CONCLUSION: A comparison of our scenario estimations and actual output 2006-2008 indicates that a simple user-friendly dynamic model can estimate the capacity for ART scale-up in resource-poor settings based on identification of a limiting staff factor and information on availability of this staff and patient losses. Thus, it is possible to set more achievable targets

The Emergence of HIV Transmitted Resistance in Botswana: “When Will the WHO Detection Threshold Be Exceeded?”

BACKGROUND: The Botswana antiretroviral program began in 2002 and currently treats 42,000 patients, with a goal of treating 85,000 by 2009. The World Health Organization (WHO) has begun to implement a surveillance system for detecting transmitted resistance that exceeds a threshold of 5%. However, the WHO has not determined when this threshold will be reached. Here we model the Botswana government's treatment plan and predict, to 2009, the likely stochastic evolution of transmitted resistance. METHODS: We developed a model of the stochastic evolution of drug-resistant strains and formulated a birth-death Master equation. We analyzed this equation to obtain an analytical solution of the probabilistic evolutionary trajectory for transmitted resistance, and used treatment and demographic data from Botswana. We determined the temporal dynamics of transmitted resistance as a function of: (i) the transmissibility (i.e., fitness) of the drug-resistant strains that may evolve and (ii) the rate of acquired resistance. RESULTS: Transmitted resistance in Botswana will be unlikely to exceed the WHO's threshold by 2009 even if the rate of acquired resistance is high and the strains that evolve are half as fit as the wild-type strains. However, we also found that transmission of drug-resistant strains in Botswana could increase to ∼15% by 2009 if the drug-resistant strains that evolve are as fit as the wild-type strains. CONCLUSIONS: Transmitted resistance will only be detected by the WHO (by 2009) if the strains that evolve are extremely fit and acquired resistance is high. Initially after a treatment program is begun a threshold lower than 5% should be used; and we advise that predictions should be made before setting a threshold. Our results indicate that it may be several years before the WHO's surveillance system is likely to detect transmitted resistance in other resource-poor countries that have significantly less ambitious treatment programs than Botswana

Barriers to the care of HIV-infected children in rural Zambia: a cross-sectional analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Successful antiretroviral treatment programs in rural sub-Saharan Africa may face different challenges than programs in urban areas. The objective of this study was to identify patient characteristics, barriers to care, and treatment responses of HIV-infected children seeking care in rural Zambia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cross-sectional analysis of HIV-infected children seeking care at Macha Hospital in rural southern Zambia. Information was collected from caretakers and medical records.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>192 HIV-infected children were enrolled from September 2007 through September 2008, 28% of whom were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) at enrollment. The median age was 3.3 years for children not receiving ART (IQR 1.8, 6.7) and 4.5 years for children receiving ART (IQR 2.7, 8.6). 91% travelled more than one hour to the clinic and 26% travelled more than 5 hours. Most participants (73%) reported difficulties accessing the clinic, including insufficient money (60%), lack of transportation (54%) and roads in poor condition (32%). The 54 children who were receiving ART at study enrollment had been on ART a median of 8.6 months (IQR: 2.7, 19.5). The median percentage of CD4⁺T cells was 12.4 (IQR: 9.2, 18.6) at the start of ART, and increased to 28.6 (IQR: 23.5, 36.1) at the initial study visit. However, the proportion of children who were underweight decreased only slightly, from 70% at initiation of ART to 61% at the initial study visit.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>HIV-infected children in rural southern Zambia have long travel times to access care and may have poorer weight gain on ART than children in urban areas. Despite these barriers, these children had a substantial rise in CD4⁺T cell counts in the first year of ART although longer follow-up may indicate these gains are not sustained.</p

Patient-centred tuberculosis treatment delivery under programmatic conditions in Tanzania: a cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Directly observed therapy (DOT) remains the cornerstone of the global tuberculosis (TB) control strategy. Tanzania, one of the 22 high-burden countries regarding TB, changed the first-line treatment regimen to contain rifampicin-containing fixed-dose combination for the full 6 months of treatment. As daily health facility-based DOT for this long period is not feasible for the patient, nor for the health system, Tanzania introduced patient centred treatment (PCT). PCT allows patients to choose for daily DOT at a health facility or at their home by a supporter of choice. The introduction of fixed dose combinations in the intensive and continuation phase made PCT feasible by eliminating the risk of selective drug taking by patients and reducing the number of tablets to be taken. The approach was tested in three districts with the objective to assess the effect of this strategy on TB treatment outcomes</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cohort analysis comparing patients treated under the PCT strategy (registered April-September 2006) with patients treated under health-facility-based DOT (registered April-September 2005). The primary outcome was the cure rate. Differences were assessed by calculating the risk ratios. Associations between characteristics of the supporters and treatment outcomes in the group of patients opting for home-based DOT were assessed through logistic regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the PCT cohort there were 1208 patients and 1417 were included in the historic cohort. There was no significant difference in cure rates between the cohorts (risk ratio [RR]: 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.96-1.16). In the PCT cohort, significantly more patients had successful treatment (cure or treatment completed; RR: 1.10; 95%CI: 1.01-1.15). There were no characteristics of supporters that were associated with treatment outcome.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The PCT approach showed similar cure rates and better treatment success rates compared to daily health-facility DOT. The results indicate that there are no specific prerequisites for the supporter chosen by the patient. The programmatic setting of the study lends strong support for scaling-up of TB treatment observation outside the health facility.</p

Adherence to Combination Prophylaxis for Prevention of Mother-to-Child-Transmission of HIV in Tanzania

BACKGROUND: Since 2008, Tanzanian guidelines for prevention of mother-to-child-transmission of HIV (PMTCT) recommend combination regimen for mother and infant starting in gestational week 28. Combination prophylaxis is assumed to be more effective and less prone to resistance formation compared to single-drug interventions, but the required continuous collection and intake of drugs might pose a challenge on adherence especially in peripheral resource-limited settings. This study aimed at analyzing adherence to combination prophylaxis under field conditions in a rural health facility in Kyela, Tanzania. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A cohort of 122 pregnant women willing to start combination prophylaxis in Kyela District Hospital was enrolled in an observational study. Risk factors for decline of prophylaxis were determined, and adherence levels before, during and after delivery were calculated. In multivariate analysis, identified risk factors for declining pre-delivery prophylaxis included maternal age below 24 years, no income-generating activity, and enrolment before 24.5 gestational weeks, with odds ratios of 5.8 (P = 0.002), 4.4 (P = 0.015) and 7.8 (P = 0.001), respectively. Women who stated to have disclosed their HIV status were significantly more adherent in the pre-delivery period than women who did not (P = 0.004). In the intra- and postpartum period, rather low drug adherence rates during hospitalization indicated unsatisfactory staff performance. Only ten mother-child pairs were at least 80% adherent during all intervention phases; one single mother-child pair met a 95% adherence threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Achieving adherence to combination prophylaxis has shown to be challenging in this rural study setting. Our findings underline the need for additional supervision for PMTCT staff as well as for clients, especially by encouraging them to seek social support through status disclosure. Prophylaxis uptake might be improved by preponing drug intake to an earlier gestational age. Limited structural conditions of a healthcare setting should be taken into serious account when implementing PMTCT combination prophylaxis

Monitoring Virologic Responses to Antiretroviral Therapy in HIV-Infected Adults in Kenya: Evaluation of a Low-Cost Viral Load Assay

A key advantage of monitoring HIV viral load (VL) in persons receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is the ability to detect virologic failure before clinical deterioration or resistance occurs. Detection of virologic failure will help clarify the need for enhanced adherence counseling or a change to second- line therapy. Low-cost, locally performable alternates to expensive VL assays are needed where resources are limited.We monitored the response to 48-week ART in 100 treatment-naïve Kenyan adults using a low-cost VL measurement, the Cavidi reverse transcriptase (RT) assay and gold-standard assays, Roche RNA PCR and Bayer Versant HIV-1 RNA (bDNA) assays. In Altman-Bland plots, the mean difference in viral loads between the three assays was small (<0.5 log(10) copies/mL). However, the limits of agreement between the methods exceeded the biologically relevant change of 0.5 log copies/ml. Therefore, the RT assay cannot be used interchangeably with the other assays to monitor individual patients. The RT assay was 100% sensitive in detecting viral loads of > or =400 copies/ml compared to gold-standard assays. After 24 weeks of treatment, viral load measured by the RT assay was undetectable in 95% of 65 patients with undetectable RNA PCR VL (<400 copies/ml), 90% of 67 patients with undetectable bDNA VL, and 96% of 57 patients with undetectable VL in both RNA PCR and bDNA assays. The negative predictive value of the RT assay was 100% compared to either assay; the positive predictive value was 86% compared to RNA PCR and 70% compared to bDNA.The RT assay compared well with gold standard assays. Our study highlights the importance of not interchanging viral load assays when monitoring an individual patient. Furthermore, the RT assay may be limited by low positive predictive values when used in populations with low prevalence of virologic failure

Virological efficacy and emergence of drug resistance in adults on antiretroviral treatment in rural Tanzania

Background Virological response to antiretroviral treatment (ART) in rural Africa is poorly described. We examined virological efficacy and emergence of drug resistance in adults receiving first-line ART for up to 4 years in rural Tanzania. Methods Haydom Lutheran Hospital has provided ART to HIV-infected patients since October 2003. A combination of stavudine or zidovudine with lamivudine and either nevirapine or efavirenz is the standard first-line regimen. Nested in a longitudinal cohort study of patients consecutively starting ART, we carried out a cross-sectional virological efficacy survey between November 2007 and June 2008. HIV viral load was measured in all adults who had completed at least 6 months first-line ART, and genotypic resistance was determined in patients with viral load >1000 copies/mL. Results Virological response was measured in 212 patients, of whom 158 (74.5%) were women, and median age was 35 years (interquartile range [IQR] 29–43). Median follow-up time was 22.3 months (IQR 14.0–29.9). Virological suppression, defined as <400 copies/mL, was observed in 187 patients (88.2%). Overall, prevalence of ≥1 clinically significant resistance mutation was 3.9, 8.4, 16.7 and 12.5% in patients receiving ART for 1, 2, 3 and 4 years, respectively. Among those successfully genotyped, the most frequent mutations were M184I/V (64%), conferring resistance to lamivudine, and K103N (27%), Y181C (27%) and G190A (27%), conferring resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), whereas 23% had thymidine analogue mutations (TAMs), associated with cross-resistance to all nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs). Dual-class resistance, i.e. resistance to both NRTIs and NNRTIs, was found in 64%. Conclusion Virological suppression rates were good up to 4 years after initiating ART in a rural Tanzanian hospital. However, drug resistance increased with time, and dual-class resistance was common, raising concerns about exhaustion of future antiretroviral drug options. This study might provide a useful forecast of drug resistance and demand for second-line antiretroviral drugs in rural Africa in the coming years