Molecular Epidemiology of HIV-Associated Tuberculosis in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: Strain Predominance, Clustering, and Polyclonal Disease.

Molecular typing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis can be used to elucidate the epidemiology of tuberculosis, including the rates of clustering, the frequency of polyclonal disease, and the distribution of genotypic families. We performed IS6110 typing and spoligotyping on M. tuberculosis strains isolated from HIV-infected subjects at baseline or during follow-up in the DarDar Trial in Tanzania and on selected community isolates. Clustering occurred in 203 (74%) of 275 subjects: 124 (80%) of 155 HIV-infected subjects with baseline isolates, 56 (69%) of 81 HIV-infected subjects with endpoint isolates, and 23 (59%) of 39 community controls. Overall, 113 (41%) subjects had an isolate representing the East Indian "GD" family. The rate of clustering was similar among vaccine and placebo recipients and among subjects with or without cellular immune responses to mycobacterial antigens. Polyclonal disease was detected in 6 (43%) of 14 patients with multiple specimens typed. Most cases of HIV-associated tuberculosis among subjects from this study in Dar es Salaam resulted from recently acquired infection. Polyclonal infection was detected and isolates representing the East Indian GD strain family were the most common

Changes in Mycobacterium tuberculosis Genotype Families Over 20 Years in a Population-Based Study in Northern Malawi

BACKGROUND: Despite increasing interest in possible differences in virulence and transmissibility between different genotypes of M. tuberculosis, very little is known about how genotypes within a population change over decades, or about relationships to HIV infection. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In a population-based study in rural Malawi we have examined smears and cultures from tuberculosis patients over a 20-year period using spoligotyping. Isolates were grouped into spoligotype families and lineages following previously published criteria. Time trends, HIV status, drug resistance and outcome were examined by spoligotype family and lineage. In addition, transmissibility was examined among pairs of cases with known epidemiological contact by assessing the proportion of transmissions confirmed for each lineage, on the basis of IS6110 RFLP similarity of the M tuberculosis strains. 760 spoligotypes were obtained from smears from 518 patients from 1986-2002, and 377 spoligotypes from cultures from 347 patients from 2005-2008. There was good consistency in patients with multiple specimens. Among 781 patients with first episode tuberculosis, the majority (76%) had Lineage 4 ("European/American") strains; 9% had Lineage 3 ("East-African/Indian"); 8% Lineage 1 ("Indo-Oceanic"); and 2% Lineage 2 ("East-Asian"); others unclassifiable. Over time the proportion of Lineage 4 decreased from >90% to 60%, with an increase in the other 3 lineages (p<0.001). Lineage 1 strains were more common in those with HIV infection, even after adjusting for age, sex and year. There were no associations with drug resistance or outcome, and no differences by lineage in the proportion of pairs in which transmission was confirmed. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to describe long term trends in the four M. tuberculosis lineages in a population. Lineage 4 has probably been longstanding in this population, with relatively recent introductions and spread of Lineages1-3, perhaps influenced by the HIV epidemic

DNA restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from HIV-seropositive and HIV-seronegative patients in Kampala, Uganda

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The identification and differentiation of strains of <it>Mycobacterium tuberculosis </it>by DNA fingerprinting has provided a better understanding of the epidemiology and tracing the transmission of tuberculosis. We set out to determine if there was a relationship between the risk of belonging to a group of tuberculosis patients with identical mycobacterial DNA fingerprint patterns and the HIV sero-status of the individuals in a high TB incidence peri-urban setting of Kampala, Uganda.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>One hundred eighty three isolates of <it>Mycobacterium tuberculosis </it>from 80 HIV seropositive and 103 HIV seronegative patients were fingerprinted by standard IS<it>6110</it>-RFLP. Using the BioNumerics software, strains were considered to be clustered if at least one other patient had an isolate with identical RFLP pattern.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>One hundred and eighteen different fingerprint patterns were obtained from the 183 isolates. There were 34 clusters containing 54% (99/183) of the patients (average cluster size of 2.9), and a majority (96.2%) of the strains possessed a high copy number (≥ 5 copies) of the IS<it>6110 </it>element. When strains with <5 bands were excluded from the analysis, 50.3% (92/183) were clustered, and there was no difference in the level of diversity of DNA fingerprints observed in the two sero-groups (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.85, 95%CI 0.46–1.56, <it>P </it>= 0.615), patients aged <40 years (aOR 0.53, 95%CI 0.25–1.12, <it>P </it>= 0.100), and sex (aOR 1.12, 95%CI 0.60–2.06, <it>P </it>= 0.715).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The sample showed evidence of a high prevalence of recent transmission with a high average cluster size, but infection with an isolate with a fingerprint found to be part of a cluster was not associated with any demographic or clinical characteristics, including HIV status.</p

Analysis of neonatal clinical trials with twin births

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In neonatal trials of pre-term or low-birth-weight infants, twins may represent 10–20% of the study sample. Mixed-effects models and generalized estimating equations are common approaches for handling correlated continuous or binary data. However, the operating characteristics of these methods for mixes of correlated and independent data are not well established.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Simulation studies were conducted to compare mixed-effects models and generalized estimating equations to linear regression for continuous outcomes. Similarly, mixed-effects models and generalized estimating equations were compared to ordinary logistic regression for binary outcomes. The parameter of interest is the treatment effect in two-armed clinical trials. Data from the National Institute of Child Health & Human Development Neonatal Research Network are used for illustration.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For continuous outcomes, while the coverage never fell below 0.93, and the type I error rate never exceeded 0.07 for any method, overall linear mixed-effects models performed well with respect to median bias, mean squared error, coverage, and median width. For binary outcomes, the coverage never fell below 0.90, and the type I error rate never exceeded 0.07 for any method. In these analyses, when randomization of twins was to the same treatment group or done independently, ordinary logistic regression performed best. When randomization of twins was to opposite treatment arms, a rare method of randomization in this setting, ordinary logistic regression still performed adequately. Overall, generalized linear mixed models showed the poorest coverage values.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>For continuous outcomes, using linear mixed-effects models for analysis is preferred. For binary outcomes, in this setting where the amount of related data is small, but non-negligible, ordinary logistic regression is recommended.</p

Siamese Survival Analysis with Competing Risks

Survival analysis in the presence of multiple possible adverse events, i.e., competing risks, is a pervasive problem in many industries (healthcare, finance, etc.). Since only one event is typically observed, the incidence of an event of interest is often obscured by other related competing events. This nonidentifiability, or inability to estimate true cause-specific survival curves from empirical data, further complicates competing risk survival analysis. We introduce Siamese Survival Prognosis Network (SSPN), a novel deep learning architecture for estimating personalized risk scores in the presence of competing risks. SSPN circumvents the nonidentifiability problem by avoiding the estimation of cause-specific survival curves and instead determines pairwise concordant time-dependent risks, where longer event times are assigned lower risks. Furthermore, SSPN is able to directly optimize an approximation to the C-discrimination index, rather than relying on well-known metrics which are unable to capture the unique requirements of survival analysis with competing risks

Contrasting Patterns of Coral Bleaching Susceptibility in 2010 Suggest an Adaptive Response to Thermal Stress

Background: \ud Coral bleaching events vary in severity, however, to date, the hierarchy of susceptibility to bleaching among coral taxa has been consistent over a broad geographic range and among bleaching episodes. Here we examine the extent of spatial and temporal variation in thermal tolerance among scleractinian coral taxa and between locations during the 2010 thermally induced, large-scale bleaching event in South East Asia.\ud \ud Methodology/Principal Findings: \ud Surveys to estimate the bleaching and mortality indices of coral genera were carried out at three locations with contrasting thermal and bleaching histories. Despite the magnitude of thermal stress being similar among locations in 2010, there was a remarkable contrast in the patterns of bleaching susceptibility. Comparisons of bleaching susceptibility within coral taxa and among locations revealed no significant differences between locations with similar thermal histories, but significant differences between locations with contrasting thermal histories (Friedman = 34.97; p,0.001). Bleaching was much less severe at locations that bleached during 1998, that had greater historical temperature variability and lower rates of warming. Remarkably, Acropora and Pocillopora, taxa that are typically highly susceptible, although among the most susceptible in Pulau Weh (Sumatra, Indonesia) where respectively, 94% and 87% of colonies died, were among the least susceptible in Singapore, where only 5% and 12% of colonies died.\ud \ud Conclusions/Significance: \ud The pattern of susceptibility among coral genera documented here is unprecedented. A parsimonious explanation for these results is that coral populations that bleached during the last major warming event in 1998 have adapted and/or acclimatised to thermal stress. These data also lend support to the hypothesis that corals in regions subject to more variable temperature regimes are more resistant to thermal stress than those in less variable environments

Phase Change Material for Thermotherapy of Buruli Ulcer: A Prospective Observational Single Centre Proof-of-Principle Trial

Buruli ulcer is an infection of the subcutaneous tissue leading to chronic necrotizing skin ulcers. The causative pathogen, Mycobacterium ulcerans, grows best at 30°C–33°C and not above 37°C, and this property makes the application of heat a treatment option. We achieved a breakthrough in heat treatment of Buruli ulcer by employing the phase change material sodium acetate trihydrate as a heat application system for thermotherapy, which is widely used in commercial pocket heat pads. It is easy to apply, rechargeable in hot water, non-toxic and non-hazardous to the environment. Six laboratory reconfirmed patients with ulcerative Buruli lesions were included in the proof-of-principle study and treated for four to six weeks. In patients with small ulcers, wounds healed completely without further intervention. Patients with large defects had skin grafting after successful heat treatment. Heat treatment was not associated with marked increases in local inflammation or the development of ectopic lymphoid tissue. One and a half years after completion of treatment, all patients are relapse-free. The reusable phase change material–based heat application device appears perfectly suited for use in remote Buruli ulcer–endemic areas of countries with limited resources and infrastructure

Hydrochemical system analysis of public supply well fields, to reveal water-quality patterns and define groundwater bodies:The Netherlands

Hydrochemical system analysis (HCSA) is used to better understand the individual state of and spatial patterns in groundwater quality, by addressing the spatial distribution of groundwater bodies with specific origins (hydrosomes) and characteristic hydrochemical zones within each hydrosome (facies). The origin is determined by environmental tracers or geomorphological and potentiometric maps, the facies by combining age, redox and alkalinity indices. The HCSA method is applied to all 206 active public supply well fields (PSWFs) in The Netherlands, resulting in the distinction of nine hydrosomes and eleven facies parameters-age (young, intermediate, old), redox ((sub)oxic, anoxic, deep anoxic, mixed) and alkalinity (very low, low, intermediate and high). The resulting classification of PSWFs provides a means to (1) predict their vulnerability; (2) optimize groundwater-quality monitoring programs; and (3) better delineate groundwater bodies, by considering groundwater origin and flow. The HCSA translates complex hydrochemical patterns into easily interpretable maps by showing PSWFs, groundwater bodies and hydrochemical facies. Such maps facilitate communication between researchers, water resources managers and policy makers and can help to solve complex groundwater resources management problems at different scales, ranging from a single well(field) or region to the national or European scale. © 2010 Springer-Verlag

Acanthaster planci Outbreak: Decline in Coral Health, Coral Size Structure Modification and Consequences for Obligate Decapod Assemblages

Although benthic motile invertebrate communities encompass the vast majority of coral reef diversity, their response to habitat modification has been poorly studied. A variety of benthic species, particularly decapods, provide benefits to their coral host enabling them to cope with environmental stressors, and as a result benefit the overall diversity of coral-associated species. However, little is known about how invertebrate assemblages associated with corals will be affected by global perturbations, (either directly or indirectly via their coral host) or their consequences for ecosystem resilience. Analysis of a ten year dataset reveals that the greatest perturbation at Moorea over this time was an outbreak of the corallivorous sea star Acanthaster planci from 2006 to 2009 impacting habitat health, availability and size structure of Pocillopora spp. populations and highlights a positive relationship between coral head size and survival. We then present the results of a mensurative study in 2009 conducted at the end of the perturbation (A. planci outbreak) describing how coral-decapod communities change with percent coral mortality for a selected coral species, Pocillopora eydouxi. The loss of coral tissue as a consequence of A. planci consumption led to an increase in rarefied total species diversity, but caused drastic modifications in community composition driven by a shift from coral obligate to non-obligate decapod species. Our study highlights that larger corals left with live tissue in 2009, formed a restricted habitat where coral obligate decapods, including mutualists, could subsist. We conclude that the size structure of Pocillopora populations at the time of an A. planci outbreak may greatly condition the magnitude of coral mortality as well as the persistence of local populations of obligate decapods