Approximate disease dynamics in household-structured populations.

We argue that the large-dimensional dynamical systems which frequently occur in biological models can sometimes be effectively reduced to much smaller ones. We illustrate this by applying projection operator techniques to a mean-field model of an infectious disease spreading through a population of households. In this way, we are able to accurately approximate the dynamics of the system in terms of a few key quantities greatly reducing the number of equations required. We investigate linear stability in this framework and find a new way of calculating the familiar threshold criterion for household systems

Disease prevention versus data privacy : using landcover maps to inform spatial epidemic models

The availability of epidemiological data in the early stages of an outbreak of an infectious disease is vital for modelers to make accurate predictions regarding the likely spread of disease and preferred intervention strategies. However, in some countries, the necessary demographic data are only available at an aggregate scale. We investigated the ability of models of livestock infectious diseases to predict epidemic spread and obtain optimal control policies in the event of imperfect, aggregated data. Taking a geographic information approach, we used land cover data to predict UK farm locations and investigated the influence of using these synthetic location data sets upon epidemiological predictions in the event of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. When broadly classified land cover data were used to create synthetic farm locations, model predictions deviated significantly from those simulated on true data. However, when more resolved subclass land use data were used, moderate to highly accurate predictions of epidemic size, duration and optimal vaccination and ring culling strategies were obtained. This suggests that a geographic information approach may be useful where individual farm-level data are not available, to allow predictive analyses to be carried out regarding the likely spread of disease. This method can also be used for contingency planning in collaboration with policy makers to determine preferred control strategies in the event of a future outbreak of infectious disease in livestock

Barriers and enablers to adherence to anticoagulation in heart failure with atrial fibrillation: patient and provider perspectives

© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd Aims & Objectives: The purpose of this study was to elucidate the barriers and enablers to adherence to anticoagulation in individuals with chronic heart failure (CHF) with concomitant atrial fibrillation (AF) from the perspective of patients and providers. Background: CHF and AF commonly coexist and are associated with increased stroke risk and mortality. Oral anticoagulation significantly reduces stroke risk and improves outcomes. Yet, in approximately 30% of cases, anticoagulation is not commenced for a variety of reasons. Design: Qualitative study using narrative inquiry. Methods: Data from face-to-face individual interviews with patients and information retrieved from healthcare file note review documented the clinician perspective. This study is a synthesis of the two data sources, obtained during patient clinical assessments as part of the Atrial Fibrillation And Stroke Thromboprophylaxis in hEart failuRe (AFASTER) Study. Results: Patient choice and preference were important factors in anticoagulation decisions, including treatment burden, unfavourable or intolerable side effects and patient refusal. Financial barriers included cost of travel, medication cost and reimbursement. Psychological factors included psychiatric illness, cognitive impairment and depression. Social barriers included homelessness and the absence of a caregiver or lack of caregiver assistance. Clinician reticence included fear of falls, frailty, age, fear of bleeding and the challenges of multimorbidity. Facilitators to successful prescription and adherence were caregiver support, reminders and routine, self-testing and the use of technology. Conclusions: Many barriers remain to high-risk individuals being prescribed anticoagulation for stroke prevention. There are a number of enabling factors that facilitate prescription and optimise treatment adherence. Nurses should challenge these treatment barriers and seek enabling factors to optimise therapy. Relevance to clinical practice: Nurses can help patients and caregivers to understand complex anticoagulant risk-benefit information, and act as a patient advocate when making complex stroke prevention decisions

Atrial fibrillation and thromboprophylaxis in heart failure: The need for patient-centered approaches to address adherence

Atrial fibrillation is a common arrhythmia in heart failure and a risk factor for stroke. Risk assessment tools can assist clinicians with decision making in the allocation of thromboprophylaxis. This review provides an overview of current validated risk assessment tools for atrial fibrillation and emphasizes the importance of tailoring individual risk and the importance of weighing the benefits of treatment. Further, this review provides details of innovative and patient-centered methods for ensuring optimal adherence to prescribed therapy. Prior to initiating oral anticoagulant therapy, a comprehensive risk assessment should include evaluation of associated cardiogeriatric conditions, potential for adherence to prescribed therapy, frailty, and functional and cognitive ability. © 2013 Ferguson et al, publisher and licensee Dove Medical Press Ltd

Addressing the stroke evidence-treatment gap

Stroke is one of the world’s largest contributors to mortality, and a leading cause of longterm disability. Yet, this remains an area of healthcare that continues to receive little attention through the media. There is urgent need for vital stroke funding to improve gaps in evidence-based stroke care. We are faced with a public health crisis

Improving evidence based practice in postgraduate nursing programs: A systematic review: Bridging the evidence practice gap (BRIDGE project)

© 2018 Background: The nursing profession has a significant evidence to practice gap in an increasingly complex and dynamic health care environment. Objective(s): To evaluate effectiveness of teaching and learning strategies related to a capstone project within a Masters of Nursing program that encourage the development of evidence based practice capabilities. Design: Systematic review that conforms to the PRISMA statement. Sample: Master's Nursing programs that include elements of a capstone project within a university setting. Data Sources/Review Methods: MEDLINE, CINAHL, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, ERIC and PsycInfo were used to search for RCT's or quasi experimental studies conducted between 1979 and 9 June 2017, published in a peer reviewed journal in English. Results: Of 1592 studies, no RCT's specifically addressed the development of evidence based practice capabilities within the university teaching environment. Five quasi-experimental studies integrated blended learning, guided design processes, small group work, role play and structured debate into Masters of Nursing research courses. All five studies demonstrated some improvements in evidence based practice skills and/or research knowledge translation, with three out of five studies demonstrating significant improvements. Conclusions: There is a paucity of empirical evidence supporting the best strategies to use in developing evidence based practice skills and/or research knowledge translation skills for Master's Nursing students. As a profession, nursing requires methodologically robust studies that are discipline specific to identify the best approaches for developing evidence-based practice skills and/or research knowledge translation skills within the university teaching environment. Provision of these strategies will enable the nursing profession to integrate the best empirical evidence into nursing practice

An mHealth intervention to improve nurses’ atrial fibrillation and anticoagulation knowledge and practice: the EVICOAG study

© The European Society of Cardiology 2018. Background: There is a need to improve cardiovascular nurses’ knowledge and practices related to stroke prevention, atrial fibrillation and anticoagulation therapy. Aims: The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of EVICOAG – a novel mHealth, smartphone-based, spaced-learning intervention on nurses’ knowledge of atrial fibrillation and anticoagulation. Methods: Nurses employed in four clinical specialties (neuroscience, stroke, rehabilitation, cardiology) across three hospitals were invited to participate. In this quasi-experimental study, 12 case-based atrial fibrillation and anticoagulation learning scenarios (hosted by an mHealth platform) were delivered to participants’ smartphones over a 6-week period (July–December 2016) using a spaced timing algorithm. Electronic surveys to assess awareness and knowledge were administered pre (T1) and post (T2) intervention. Results: From 74 participants recruited to T1, 40 completed T2. There was a 54% mean improvement in knowledge levels post-intervention. The largest improvement was achieved in domains related to medication interaction and stroke and bleeding risk assessment. Post-intervention, those who completed T2 were significantly more likely to use CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc (2.5% vs. 37.5%) and HAS-BLED (2.5% vs. 35%) tools to assess stroke and bleeding risk, respectively (P<0.01). Conclusion: The EVICOAG intervention improved nurses’ knowledge of atrial fibrillation and anticoagulation, and influenced their uptake and use of stroke and bleeding risk assessment tools in clinical practice. Future research should focus on whether a similar intervention might improve patient-centred outcomes such as patients’ knowledge of their condition and therapies, medication adherence, time in the therapeutic range and quality of life

Rating and ranking the role of bibliometrics and webometrics in nursing and midwifery

Background. Bibliometrics are an essential aspect of measuring academic and organizational performance. Aim. This review seeks to describe methods for measuring bibliometrics, identify the strengths and limitations of methodologies, outline strategies for interpretation, summarise evaluation of nursing and midwifery performance, identify implications for metric of evaluation, and specify the implications for nursing and midwifery and implications of social networking for bibliometrics and measures of individual performance. Method. A review of electronic databases CINAHL, Medline, and Scopus was undertaken using search terms such as bibliometrics, nursing, and midwifery. The reference lists of retrieved articles and Internet sources and social media platforms were also examined. Results. A number of well-established, formal ways of assessment have been identified, including h- and c-indices. Changes in publication practices and the use of the Internet have challenged traditional metrics of influence. Moreover, measuring impact beyond citation metrics is an increasing focus, with social media representing newer ways of establishing performance and impact. Conclusions. Even though a number of measures exist, no single bibliometric measure is perfect. Therefore, multiple approaches to evaluation are recommended. However, bibliometric approaches should not be the only measures upon which academic and scholarly performance are evaluated. © 2014 Patricia M. Davidson et al

Comparison of molecular testing strategies for COVID-19 control: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND: WHO has called for increased testing in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but countries have taken different approaches and the effectiveness of alternative strategies is unknown. We aimed to investigate the potential impact of different testing and isolation strategies on transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). METHODS: We developed a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission based on infectiousness and PCR test sensitivity over time since infection. We estimated the reduction in the effective reproduction number (R) achieved by testing and isolating symptomatic individuals, regular screening of high-risk groups irrespective of symptoms, and quarantine of contacts of laboratory-confirmed cases identified through test-and-trace protocols. The expected effectiveness of different testing strategies was defined as the percentage reduction in R. We reviewed data on the performance of antibody tests reported by the Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics and examined their implications for the use of so-called immunity passports. FINDINGS: If all individuals with symptoms compatible with COVID-19 self-isolated and self-isolation was 100% effective in reducing onwards transmission, self-isolation of symptomatic individuals would result in a reduction in R of 47% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 32-55). PCR testing to identify SARS-CoV-2 infection soon after symptom onset could reduce the number of individuals needing to self-isolate, but would also reduce the effectiveness of self-isolation (around 10% would be false negatives). Weekly screening of health-care workers and other high-risk groups irrespective of symptoms by use of PCR testing is estimated to reduce their contribution to SARS-CoV-2 transmission by 23% (95% UI 16-40), on top of reductions achieved by self-isolation following symptoms, assuming results are available at 24 h. The effectiveness of test and trace depends strongly on coverage and the timeliness of contact tracing, potentially reducing R by 26% (95% UI 14-35) on top of reductions achieved by self-isolation following symptoms, if 80% of cases and contacts are identified and there is immediate testing following symptom onset and quarantine of contacts within 24 h. Among currently available antibody tests, performance has been highly variable, with specificity around 90% or lower for rapid diagnostic tests and 95-99% for laboratory-based ELISA and chemiluminescent assays. INTERPRETATION: Molecular testing can play an important role in prevention of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, especially among health-care workers and other high-risk groups, but no single strategy will reduce R below 1 at current levels of population immunity. Immunity passports based on antibody tests or tests for infection face substantial technical, legal, and ethical challenges. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council