What accuracy statistics really measure

Provides the software estimation research community with a better understanding of the meaning of, and relationship between, two statistics that are often used to assess the accuracy of predictive models: the mean magnitude relative error (MMRE) and the number of predictions within 25% of the actual, pred(25). It is demonstrated that MMRE and pred(25) are, respectively, measures of the spread and the kurtosis of the variable z, where z=estimate/actual. Thus, z is considered to be a measure of accuracy, and statistics such as MMRE and pred(25) to be measures of properties of the distribution of z. It is suggested that measures of the central location and skewness of z, as well as measures of spread and kurtosis, are necessary. Furthermore, since the distribution of z is non-normal, non-parametric measures of these properties may be needed. For this reason, box-plots of z are useful alternatives to simple summary metrics. It is also noted that the simple residuals are better behaved than the z variable, and could also be used as the basis for comparing prediction system

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2,3,4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease

Reporting Experiments in Software Engineering

Background: One major problem for integrating study results into a common body of knowledge is the heterogeneity of reporting styles: (1) It is difficult to locate relevant information and (2) important information is often missing. Objective: A checklist for reporting results from controlled experiments is expected to support a systematic, standardized presentation of empirical research, thus improving reporting in order to support readers in (1) finding the information they are looking for, (2) understanding how an experiment is conducted, and (3) assessing the validity of its results. Method: The checklist for reporting is based on (1) a survey of the most prominent published proposals for reporting guidelines in software engineering and (2) an iterative development incorporating feedback from members of the research community. Result: This paper presents a unification of a set of guidelines for reporting experiments in software engineering. Limitation: The checklist has not been evaluated broadly, yet. Conclusion: The resulting checklist provides detailed guidance on the expected content of the sections and subsections for reporting a specific type of empirical studies, i.e., experiments (controlled experiments and quasi-experiments). 1

SF-6D versus EQ-5D: reasons for differences in utility scores and impact on reported cost-utility

Cost-utility, EQ-5D, SF-6D, Health utilities,

2016 eruption LC of the recurrent nova M31N 2008-12a

VizieR online Data Catalogue associated with article published in journal Astronomical Journal (AAS) with title \u27Breaking the habit: the peculiar 2016 eruption of the unique recurrent nova M31N 2008-12a.\u27 (bibcode: 2018ApJ...857...68H