87 research outputs found
Rossby wave dynamics of the North Pacific extra-tropical response to El Niño: importance of the basic state in coupled GCMs
The extra-tropical response to El Nino in a "low" horizontal resolution coupled climate model, typical of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report simulations, is shown to have serious systematic errors. A high resolution configuration of the same model has a much improved response that is similar to observations. The errors in the low resolution model are traced to an incorrect representation of the atmospheric teleconnection mechanism that controls the extra-tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during El Nino. This is due to an unrealistic atmospheric mean state, which changes the propagation characteristics of Rossby waves. These erroneous upper tropospheric circulation anomalies then induce erroneous surface circulation features over the North Pacific. The associated surface wind speed and direction errors create erroneous surface flux and upwelling anomalies which finally lead to the incorrect extra-tropical SST response to El Nino in the low resolution model. This highlights the sensitivity of the climate response to a single link in a chain of complex climatic processes. The correct representation of these processes in the high resolution model indicates the importance of horizontal resolution in resolving such processes
Quantifying the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) coupling to CO2 concentration and to the length of day variations
The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the Earth's strongest climate
fluctuation on inter-annual time-scales and has global impacts although
originating in the tropical Pacific. Many point indices have been developed to
describe ENSO but the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is considered the most
representative since it links six different meteorological parameters measured
over the tropical Pacific. Extreme values of MEI are correlated to the extreme
values of atmospheric CO2 concentration rate variations and negatively
correlated to equivalent scale extreme values of the length of day (LOD) rate
variation. We evaluate a first order conversion function between MEI and the
other two indexes using their annual rate of variation. The quantification of
the strength of the coupling herein evaluated provides a quantitative measure
to test the accuracy of theoretical model predictions. Our results further
confirm the idea that the major local and global Earth-atmosphere system
mechanisms are significantly coupled and synchronized to each other at multiple
scales.Comment: Theoretical Applied Climatology (2012
Numerical study of circulation on the inner Amazon Shelf
Author Posting. © Springer, 2008. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ocean Dynamics 58 (2008): 187-198, doi:10.1007/s10236-008-0139-4.We studied the circulation on the coastal
domain of the Amazon Shelf by applying the hydrodynamic
module of the Estuarine and Coastal Ocean
Model and Sediment Transport - ECOMSED. The first
barotropic experiment aimed to explain the major bathymetric
effects on tides and those generated by anisotropy
in sediment distribution. We analyzed the continental
shelf response of barotropic tides under realistic bottom
stress parametrization (Cd), considering sediment granulometry
obtained from a faciologic map, where river
mud deposits and reworked sediments areas are well distinguished,
among others classes of sediments. Very low
Cd values were set in the fluid mud regions off the Amapa
coast (1.0 10-4 ), in contrast to values around 3:5 10-3
for coarser sediment regions off the Para coast. Three-dimensional
experiments represented the Amazon River
discharge and trade winds, combined to barotropic tide
influences and induced vertical mixing. The quasi-resonant
response of the Amazon Shelf to the M2 tide act on
the local hydrodynamics by increasing tidal admittance,
along with tidal forcing at the shelf break and extensive
fluid mud regions. Harmonic analysis of modeled
currents agreed well with analysis of the AMASSEDS
observational data set. Tidal-induced vertical shear provided
strong homogenization of threshold waters, which
are subject to a kind of hydraulic control due to the topographic
steepness. Ahead of the hydraulic jump, the
low-salinity plume is disconnected from the bottom and
acquires negative vorticity, turning southeastward. Tides
act as a generator mechanism and topography, via hydraulic
control, as a maintainer mechanism for the low-salinity
frontal zone positioning. Tidally induced southeastward
plume fate is overwhelmed by northwestward
trade winds so that, along with background circulation,
probably play the most important role on the plume fate
and variability over the Amazon Shelf
Pacific climate variability and the possible impact on global surface CO2 flux
<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Climate variability modifies both oceanic and terrestrial surface CO2 flux. Using observed/assimilated data sets, earlier studies have shown that tropical oceanic climate variability has strong impacts on the land surface temperature and soil moisture, and that there is a negative correlation between the oceanic and terrestrial CO2 fluxes. However, these data sets only cover less than the most recent 20 years and are insufficient for identifying decadal and longer periodic variabilities. To investigate possible impacts of interannual to interdecadal climate variability on CO2 flux exchange, the last 125 years of an earth system model (ESM) control run are examined.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Global integration of the terrestrial CO2 flux anomaly shows variation much greater in amplitude and longer in periodic timescale than the oceanic flux. The terrestrial CO2 flux anomaly correlates negatively with the oceanic flux in some periods, but positively in others, as the periodic timescale is different between the two variables. To determine the spatial pattern of the variability, a series of composite analyses are performed. The results show that the oceanic CO2 flux variability peaks when the eastern tropical Pacific has a large sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA). By contrast, the terrestrial CO2 flux variability peaks when the SSTA appears in the central tropical Pacific. The former pattern of variability resembles the ENSO-mode and the latter the ENSO-modoki<sup>1</sup>.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results imply that the oceanic and terrestrial CO2 flux anomalies may correlate either positively or negatively depending on the relative phase of these two modes in the tropical Pacific.</p
Long-Term Climate Forcing in Loggerhead Sea Turtle Nesting
The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood,
limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and
regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta
caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales.
Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic
processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This
novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest
Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean
conditions—such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the
observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance,
climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and
future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic
conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are
mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be
significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may
increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts,
but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine
organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments
of marine turtle population variability and persistence
Recommended from our members
The South Atlantic Anticyclone as a key player for the representation of the tropical Atlantic climate in coupled climate models
The key role of the South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAA) on the seasonal cycle of the tropical Atlantic is investigated with a regionally coupled atmosphere–ocean model for two different coupled domains. Both domains include the equatorial Atlantic and a large portion of the northern tropical Atlantic, but one extends southward, and the other northwestward. The SAA is simulated as internal model variability in the former, and is prescribed as external forcing in the latter. In the first case, the model shows significant warm biases in sea surface temperature (SST) in the Angola-Benguela front zone. If the SAA is externally prescribed, these biases are substantially reduced. The biases are both of oceanic and atmospheric origin, and are influenced by ocean–atmosphere interactions in coupled runs. The strong SST austral summer biases are associated with a weaker SAA, which weakens the winds over the southeastern tropical Atlantic, deepens the thermocline and prevents the local coastal upwelling of colder water. The biases in the basins interior in this season could be related to the advection and eddy transport of the coastal warm anomalies. In winter, the deeper thermocline and atmospheric fluxes are probably the main biases sources. Biases in incoming solar radiation and thus cloudiness seem to be a secondary effect only observed in austral winter. We conclude that the external prescription of the SAA south of 20°S improves the simulation of the seasonal cycle over the tropical Atlantic, revealing the fundamental role of this anticyclone in shaping the climate over this region
Pacific island regional preparedness for El Niño
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is often blamed for disasters in Pacific island communities. From a disaster risk reduction (DRR) perspective, the challenges with the El Niño part of the ENSO cycle, in particular, are more related to inadequate vulnerability reduction within development than to ENSO-induced hazard influences. This paper analyses this situation, filling in a conceptual and geographic gap in El Niño-related research, by reviewing El Niño-related preparedness (the conceptual gap) for Pacific islands (the geographic gap). Through exploring El Niño impacts on Pacific island communities alongside their vulnerabilities, resiliences, and preparedness with respect to El Niño, El Niño is seen as a constructed discourse rather than as a damaging phenomenon, leading to suggestions for El Niño preparedness as DRR as part of development. Yet the attention which El Niño garners might bring resources to the Pacific region and its development needs, albeit in the short term while El Niño lasts. Conversely, the attention given to El Niño could shift blame from underlying causes of vulnerability to a hazard-centric viewpoint. Instead of focusing on one hazard-influencing phenomenon, opportunities should be created for the Pacific region to tackle wider DRR and development concerns
- …