Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates

We find that in a sample of emerging economies business cycles are more volatile than in developed ones, real interest rates are countercyclical and lead the cycle, consumption is more volatile than output and net exports are strongly countercyclical. We present a model of a small open economy, where the real interest rate is decomposed in an international rate and a country risk component. Country risk is affected by fundamental shocks but, through the presence of working capital, also amplifies the effects of those shocks. The model generates business cycles consistent with Argentine data. Eliminating country risk lowers Argentine output volatility by 27% while stabilizing international rates lowers it by less than 3%.

The Dilemma of Choosing Talent: Michael Jordans are Hard to Find

This paper explores the dilemma of choosing talent using NBA data from 1987-2003. We find that there is much uncertainty in selecting talent. If superstars are found they are usually identified early, however, more false positive exist than correct decisions with high draft picks. Our results suggest that the dilemma of choosing talent is not so much a winner’s curse but more like a purchase of a lottery ticket. Most times you lose but if you are going to win you must buy one.

The Complex Structure of Magnetic Field Discontinuities in the Turbulent Solar Wind

Using high resolution Cluster satellite observations, we show that the turbulent solar wind is populated by magnetic discontinuities at different scales, going from proton down to electron scales. The structure of these layers resembles the Harris equilibrium profile in plasmas. Using a multi-dimensional intermittency technique, we show that these structures are connected through the scales. Supported by numerical simulations of magnetic reconnection, we show that observations are consistent with a scenario where many current layers develop in turbulence, and where the outflow of these reconnection events are characterized by complex sub-proton networks of secondary islands, in a self-similar way. The present work establishes that the picture of "reconnection in turbulence" and "turbulent reconnection", separately invoked as ubiquitous, coexist in space plasmas

The next-to-leading order jet vertex for Mueller-Navelet and forward jets revisited

We recalculate, completely within the original BFKL approach and at the next-to-leading order, the jet vertex relevant for the production of Mueller-Navelet jets in proton collisions and of forward jets in DIS. We consider both processes with incoming quark and gluon. The starting point is the definition of quark and gluon impact factors in the BFKL approach. Following this procedure we show explicitly that all infrared divergences cancel when renormalized parton densities are considered. We compare our results for the vertex with the former calculation of Refs. [1,2] and, in the case of the quark contribution, clarify the discrepancy present in the literature.Comment: 28 pages, 3 figures; a few references added; modified Abstract, Introduction and Summary to take into account that the equivalence between the results of Bartels et al. (Refs.[1,2]) and those of Colferai et al. (Ref.[23]) has been establishe

Design and numerical evaluation of full-authority flight control systems for conventional and thruster-augmented helicopters employed in NOE operations

The development and methodology is presented for development of full-authority implicit model-following and explicit model-following optimal controllers for use on helicopters operating in the Nap-of-the Earth (NOE) environment. Pole placement, input-output frequency response, and step input response were used to evaluate handling qualities performance. The pilot was equipped with velocity-command inputs. A mathematical/computational trajectory optimization method was employed to evaluate the ability of each controller to fly NOE maneuvers. The method determines the optimal swashplate and thruster input histories from the helicopter's dynamics and the prescribed geometry and desired flying qualities of the maneuver. Three maneuvers were investigated for both the implicit and explicit controllers with and without auxiliary propulsion installed: pop-up/dash/descent, bob-up at 40 knots, and glideslope. The explicit controller proved to be superior to the implicit controller in performance and ease of design

Why lose weight? Reasons for seeking weight loss by overweight but otherwise healthy men

OBJECTIVE: To identify the reasons for seeking weight loss in overweight or obese but otherwise healthy men. DESIGN: Interviews, prior to intervention, with subjects who had volunteered to participate in a work-site-based weight loss study. SUBJECTS: Ninety-one overweight=obese male workers. Mean age 41, range 18 – 55 y, mean body mass index (BMI) 31.0, range 26.2 – 41.6 kg=m2. MEASUREMENTS: Anthropometric measurements; body weight and height. Body mass index calculated. A short interview using open questions to determine the individuals reason for seeking weight loss. RESULTS: The message that weight loss is beneficial to health for the overweight was recognized by all subjects regardless of BMI, and was reported as the main factor for attempting weight loss. Improved fitness and effects on appearance and well-being were reported half as often as the primary reason for weight loss. CONCLUSION: Overweight lay members of the public have accepted the health education message that weight loss can improve health. Overweight but otherwise healthy men who responded, of their own accord, to an electronic mail message offering help to lose weight did not regard obesity and overweight as primarily a cosmetic issue. This is still, however, important, especially to younger people

Position and velocity space diffusion of test particles in stochastic electromagnetic fields

The two--dimensional diffusive dynamics of test particles in a random electromagnetic field is studied. The synthetic electromagnetic fluctuations are generated through randomly placed magnetised ``clouds'' oscillating with a frequency $\omega$. We investigate the mean square displacements of particles in both position and velocity spaces. As $\omega$ increases the particles undergo standard (Brownian--like) motion, anomalous diffusion and ballistic motion in position space. Although in general the diffusion properties in velocity space are not trivially related to those in position space, we find that energization is present only when particles display anomalous diffusion in position space. The anomalous character of the diffusion is only in the non--standard values of the scaling exponents while the process is Gaussian.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figure

Log-parabolic spectra and particle acceleration in blazars. III: SSC emission in the TeV band from Mkn 501

Curved broad-band spectral distributions of non-thermal sources like blazars are described well by a log-parabolic (LP) law where the second degree term measures the curvature. LP energy spectra can be obtained for relativistic electrons by means of a statistical acceleration mechanism whose probability of acceleration depends on energy. In this paper we compute the spectra radiated by an electron population via synchrotron (S) and Synchro-Self Compton(SSC) processes to derive the relations between the LP parameters. These spectra were obtained by means of an accurate numerical code. We found that the ratio between the curvature parameters of the S spectrum to that of the electrons is equal to about 0.2 instead of 0.25, the value foreseen in the delta approximation. Inverse Compton spectra are also intrinsically curved and can be approximated by a log-parabola only in limited ranges. The curvature parameter, estimated around the SED peak, may vary from a lower value than that of the S spectrum up to that of emitting electrons depending on whether the scattering is in the Thomson or in the Klein-Nishina regime. We applied this analysis to computing the SSC emission from the BL Lac object Mkn 501 during the large flare of April 1997. We fit simultaneous BeppoSAX and CAT data and reproduced intensities and spectral curvatures of both components with good accuracy. The large curvature observed in the TeV range was found to be mainly intrinsic, and therefore did not require a large pair production absorption against the extragalactic background. We regard this finding as an indication that the Universe is more transparent at these energies than previously assumed by several models found in the literature. This conclusion is supported by recent detection of two relatively high redshift blazars with H.E.S.S.Comment: Comments: 12 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in the Astronomy and Astrophysic

Swift-XRT observation of 34 new INTEGRAL/IBIS AGNs: discovery of Compton thick and other peculiar sources

For a significant number of the sources detected at high energies (>10 keV) by the INTEGRAL/IBIS and Swift/BAT instruments there is either a lack information about them in the 2-10 keV range or they are totally unidentified. Herein, we report on a sample of 34 IBIS AGN or AGN candidate objects for which there is X-ray data in the Swift/XRT archive. Thanks to these X-ray follow up observations, the identification of the gamma ray emitters has been possible and the spectral shape in terms of photon index and absorption has been evaluated for the first time for the majority of our sample sources. The sample, enlarged to include 4 more AGN already discussed in the literature, has been used to provide photon index and column density distribution. We obtain a mean value of 1.88 with a dispersion of 0.12, i.e. typical of an AGN sample. Sixteen objects (47%) have column densities in excess of 10^{22} cm^{-2} and, as expected, a large fraction of the absorbed sources are within the Sey 2 sample. We have provided a new diagnostic tool (NH versus F(2-10)keV/F(20-100)keV softness ratio) to isolate peculiar objects; we find at least one absorbed Sey 1 galaxy, 3 Compton thick AGN candidates; and one secure example of a "true" type 2 AGN. Within the sample of 10 still unidentified objects, 3 are almost certainly AGN of type 2; 3 to 4 have spectral slopes typical of AGN; and two are located high on the galactic plane and are strong enough radio emitters so that can be considered good AGN candidates.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures, ApJ accepte