Portugal and the global financial crisis – short-sighted politics, deteriorating public finances and the bailout imperative

The aim of this paper is twofold. On the one hand to explain the institutional, economic and political foundations of the Portuguese bailout in April 2011. On the other hand, to clarify the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC) in Portuguese public finances, and the interaction between domestic fiscal policy and monitoring and recommendations from the European Commission (EC) and the European Council (ECo). A long run perspective (1974-2011) on management of public finances shows that Portugal has some institutional and constitutional problems that should be sorted out in order to achieve sound public finances. Moreover, in the second half of the 90s fiscal policy was expansionary and the high conversion rate of the former currency (escudo) to the euro still hampers economic growth and competitiveness. With weak growth in the first decade of XXI century and persistent public and external deficits, Portugal came to the frontline of the negative impacts of the GFC. The total absence of political cooperation and the existence of some minority governments only made things worst. We conclude, with a brief overview of the bailout, its prospects of success, and some structural institutional measures that should be taken

Citizens' Freedom to Choose Representatives: Ballot Structure, Proportionality and "Fragmented" Parliaments

The analysis of the political consequences of electoral laws has emphasized how individual characteristics of the electoral system (electoral formulas, district magnitude, ballot structure) affect the degree of parliament "fragmentation" and proportionality. This paper argues that the personal attributes of representatives are also an important consequence of electoral laws, and that they are in part determined by citizens' freedom to choose representatives. We clarify this concept and develop an index of citizens' freedom to choose members of parliament as a function of the ballot structure, district size and electoral formulae. Using data from twenty nine countries, we find that neither proportionality nor the effective number of parties is significantly affected by voters' freedom of choice. This result has important normative implications for electoral reform

Intergovernmentalgrantrules, the "golden rule" of public finance and local expenditures

The Stability and Growth Pact and the process of fiscal consolidation in several European countries have enhanced the role of fiscal rules at sub-national level. This paper analyzes the combined effect of a rule to allocate capital and current block grants to local governments and the "golden rule" of public finance (surplus of current balance). We argue that the two fiscal rules introduce significant rigidities and distortions in local governments' expenditures structure since these mimic the structure of revenues. This effect is particularly relevant in municipalities that are more dependent of intergovernmental grants, mainly rural. On the other hand, urban municipalities with greater tax revenues (current revenues) are constrained in their ability to make capital investments because they receive per capita capital grants below what economies of scale would suggest. An empirical analysis of Portuguese local governments shows that it is no longer the median voter, but fiscal rules, that command the broad pattern of expenditure (current versus capital) at a local level. This paper is a contribution to the literature on the perverse effects of fiscal rules

Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation and drought in Portugal

The spatial variability of precipitation and drought are investigated for Portugal using monthly precipitation from 74 stations and minimum and maximum temperature from 27 stations, covering the common period of 1941–2006. Seasonal precipitation and the corresponding percentages in the year, as well as the precipitation concentration index (PCI), was computed for all 74 stations and then used as an input matrix for an R-mode principal component analysis to identify the precipitation patterns. The standardized precipitation index at 3 and 12 month time scales were computed for all stations, whereas the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the modified PDSI for Mediterranean conditions (MedPDSI) were computed for the stations with temperature data. The spatial patterns of drought over Portugal were identified by applying the S-mode principal component analysis coupled with varimax rotation to the drought indices matrices. The result revealed two distinct sub-regions in the country relative to both precipitation regimes and drought variability. The analysis of time variability of the PC scores of all drought indices allowed verifying that there is no linear trend indicating drought aggravation or decrease. In addition, the analysis shows that results for SPI-3, SPI-12, PDSI and MedPDSI are coherent among them

Análise comparativa dos ficocolóides produzidos por algas carragenófitas usadas industrialmente e algas carragenófitas portuguesas

As Carragenanas (E-407) constituem um dos principais aditivos usados pela indústria alimentar, como agentes gelificantes, emulsionantes, estabilizantes e espessantes. São ingredientes naturais, usados há várias décadas na área alimentar e são considerados como seguros, tendo obtido a classificação GRAS (Generally Recognised As Safe). Neste trabalho foram analisadas a percentagem de peso seco e a composição química (por FTIR e FT-Raman) das carragenanas produzidas pelas carragenófitas (Gigartinales, Rhodophyta) oriundas de diversos países: Kappaphycus alvarezzi (Tanzânia, Indonésia, Filipinas); Kappaphycus striatum (Madagáscar); Eucheuma denticulatum (Tanzânia, Filipinas e Madagáscar); Betaphycus gelatinum (Filipinas); e Sarcothalia crispata (Chile). Para comparação foram também analisadas algas carragenófitas da costa portuguesa (Gigartinales, Rhodophyta): Chondrus crispus, Mastocarpus stellatus; Gigartina pistillata; Chondracanthus teedei var. lusitanicus; Chondracanthus acicularis; Calliblepharis jubata; Gymnogongrus crenulatus; e Ahnfeltiopsis devoniensis. Os principais resultados a reter são: a maior percentagem de peso seco em carragenanas foi obtida a partir das algas carragenófitas Kappaphycus alvarezzi (Filipinas), com 84.4% e Gigartina pistillata (Praia do Norte, Viana do Castelo), com 65.4%. Relativamente à natureza dos ficocolóides produzidos pelas carragenófitas estudadas, as nossas análises espectroscópicas permitiram determinar a presença de um leque diversificado de carragenanas: carragenana iota pura; carragenana kappa quase pura; uma série de carragenanas híbridas kappa-iota, com diferentes rácios iota/kappa; carragenanas kappa-beta, xi-tetha e xi-lambda

Fatigue laws for Brazilians asphalt rubber mixtures obtained in 4 point bending tests

The majority of Brazilian roadpavements consistsof thin pavement structures unable to resist the damage caused by heavy loads and an increasing traffic demand. The main structural distress modes found in Brazilians asphalt layers is fatigue cracking. One of the prom-ising techniques to improve the pavement performance is through asphalt rubber mixtures, which make use of crumb rubber from scrap tires to modify and enhance the properties of the asphalt. The inexistence of fatigue laws for asphalt rubber mixtures to be applied in road design encouraged the study presented in this paper, aiming at the development of prediction models for fatigue and dynamic modulus from the results obtained in laboratory tests. Four mixtures (gap and dense graded) containing Brazilian terminal blend asphalt rubbers were assessed through four point bending tests to evaluate their fatigue and stiffness properties

Desempenho de misturas betuminosas com betume modificado com borracha através do processo húmido

Este trabalho apresenta os resultados da avaliação de desempenho mecânico de misturas betuminosas produzidas com betume modificado com borracha de pneus usados através do processo húmido, utilizando o sistema terminal blend e o sistema continuous blend. Os betumes modificados com borracha através dos dois sistemas foram caracterizados através dos seguintes ensaios: (i) penetração; (ii) ponto de amolecimento (método anel e bola); (iii) resiliência; (iv) viscosidade Brookfield. A avaliação do comportamento mecânico das misturas betuminosas inclui a resistência à fadiga, através do ensaio de flexão em quatro pontos e da deformação permanente utilizando o ensaio de corte simples repetido à altura constante (RSST-CH). Para este estudo foram produzidas misturas betuminosas com dois tipos de granulometria: (i) granulometria densa (Instituto do Asfalto Faixa IV) com betume borracha terminal blend; (ii) granulometria descontínua tipo gap graded (Caltrans ARHM-GG), com betume borracha continuous blend. As misturas com betume borracha foram comparadas com a mistura de referência denominada concreto asfáltico usinado a quente (DNIT 031/2006), preparada com betume convencional. Os resultados mostraram que a mistura com betume modificado com borracha através do sistema terminal blend apresentou o melhor desempenho, com maior vida à fadiga e maior resistência às deformações permanentes.Programa de Bolsas de Alto Nível da União Europeia para a América Latina (Programa ALβAN) - bolsa nº E04D040507BRConselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPQ