Early stopping of clinical trials

Early stopping of clinical trials in favour of a new treatment creates ethical and scientific difficulties, which are different from those associated with early stopping due to toxicity or futility. Two major breast cancer trials have recently taken such a decision, and the problem is relevant for several ongoing trials. Here we argue that such a decision should be taken with the utmost gravity and should be based on a clear overall clinical benefit for the new treatment, and not as an automatic response to crossing a predefined threshold. Predefined rules can be used to trigger a debate within the Independent Data Monitoring and Safety Committee (IDMC) about early stopping, but the IDMC should retain the responsibility of assessing overall clinical benefit in making its recommendation

Polarization of coalitions in an agent-based model of political discourse

Political discourse is the verbal interaction between political actors in a policy domain. This article explains the formation of polarized advocacy or discourse coalitions in this complex phenomenon by presenting a dynamic, stochastic, and discrete agent-based model based on graph theory and local optimization. In a series of thought experiments, actors compute their utility of contributing a specific statement to the discourse by following ideological criteria, preferential attachment, agenda-setting strategies, governmental coherence, or other mechanisms. The evolving macro-level discourse is represented as a dynamic network and evaluated against arguments from the literature on the policy process. A simple combination of four theoretical mechanisms is already able to produce artificial policy debates with theoretically plausible properties. Any sufficiently realistic configuration must entail innovative and path-dependent elements as well as a blend of exogenous preferences and endogenous opinion formation mechanisms

Recognizing Members of the Tournament Equilibrium Set is NP-hard

A recurring theme in the mathematical social sciences is how to select the "most desirable" elements given a binary dominance relation on a set of alternatives. Schwartz's tournament equilibrium set (TEQ) ranks among the most intriguing, but also among the most enigmatic, tournament solutions that have been proposed so far in this context. Due to its unwieldy recursive definition, little is known about TEQ. In particular, its monotonicity remains an open problem up to date. Yet, if TEQ were to satisfy monotonicity, it would be a very attractive tournament solution concept refining both the Banks set and Dutta's minimal covering set. We show that the problem of deciding whether a given alternative is contained in TEQ is NP-hard.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figure

PD disease state assessment in naturalistic environments using deep learning

Management of Parkinson's Disease (PD) could be improved significantly if reliable, objective information about fluctuations in disease severity can be obtained in ecologically valid surroundings such as the private home. Although automatic assessment in PD has been studied extensively, so far no approach has been devised that is useful for clinical practice. Analysis approaches common for the field lack the capability of exploiting data from realistic environments, which represents a major barrier towards practical assessment systems. The very unreliable and infrequent labelling of ambiguous, low resolution movement data collected in such environments represents a very challenging analysis setting, where advances would have significant societal impact in our ageing population. In this work we propose an assessment system that abides practical usability constraints and applies deep learning to differentiate disease state in data collected in naturalistic settings. Based on a large data-set collected from 34 people with PD we illustrate that deep learning outperforms other approaches in generalisation performance, despite the unreliable labelling characteristic for this problem setting, and how such systems could improve current clinical practice

Modelling the unfolding pathway of biomolecules: theoretical approach and experimental prospect

We analyse the unfolding pathway of biomolecules comprising several independent modules in pulling experiments. In a recently proposed model, a critical velocity $v_{c}$ has been predicted, such that for pulling speeds $v>v_{c}$ it is the module at the pulled end that opens first, whereas for $v<v_{c}$ it is the weakest. Here, we introduce a variant of the model that is closer to the experimental setup, and discuss the robustness of the emergence of the critical velocity and of its dependence on the model parameters. We also propose a possible experiment to test the theoretical predictions of the model, which seems feasible with state-of-art molecular engineering techniques.Comment: Accepted contribution for the Springer Book "Coupled Mathematical Models for Physical and Biological Nanoscale Systems and Their Applications" (proceedings of the BIRS CMM16 Workshop held in Banff, Canada, August 2016), 16 pages, 6 figure

Tamoxifen-associated vasculitis in a breast cancer patient

BACKGROUND: Estrogen plays a critical role in breast cancer. Thereafter, endocrine therapy is a standard of care in patients with breast carcinoma, expressing ER or PR. CASE PRESENTATION: Herein we report the case of a 53-year old patient, who developed cholestasis and vasculitis during the treatment with tamoxifen. This toxicity was reversable after the removal of the drug. Thereafter she continued adjuvant treatment for breast carcinoma with anastrazole. Since tamoxifen has been widely indicated for patients with breast carcinoma, we did a literature review, looking for other cases with this type of toxicity. CONCLUSION: This case is the third with vasculitis informed in the literature, but the first one that additionally developed cholestasis and arthritis. Although it is rare, we discuss the indication of this drug in the actual era, where aromatase inhibitors offer a better security profile

Letrozole as upfront endocrine therapy for postmenopausal women with hormone-sensitive breast cancer: BIG 1-98

The BIG 1-98 trial is a large, randomized, independently conducted clinical trial designed to compare the efficacy of upfront letrozole versus tamoxifen monotherapy and to compare sequential or up-front use of letrozole and/or tamoxifen as an early adjuvant therapy for patients with early breast cancer. We report on the results from the primary core analysis of the BIG 1-98 trial of 8,010 patients, which compares monotherapy with letrozole versus tamoxifen. This pre-planned core analysis allowed the use of patient data from the monotherapy arms of letrozole and tamoxifen and from the sequential arms prior to the drug switch point. Patients randomized to letrozole had a 19% improved disease-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.81; P = 0.003), due especially to reduced distant metastases (HR = 0.73; P = 0.001). A 14% risk reduction of fatal events in favor of letrozole was also observed (P = NS). The results from the monotherapy arms alone confirmed the findings from the primary core analysis. Based on the results from this trial, the aromatase inhibitor letrozole (Femara®) is currently recommended as a part of standard adjuvant therapy for postmenopausal women with endocrine-responsive breast cancer and has recently been approved in the early adjuvant setting in both Europe and the United States. A subsequent analysis after additional follow-up will address the question of monotherapy versus sequential therapy

Overexpression of Mcl-1 exacerbates lymphocyte accumulation and autoimmune kidney disease in lpr mice

Cell death by apoptosis has a critical role during embryonic development and in maintaining tissue homeostasis. In mammals, there are two converging apoptosis pathways: the ‘extrinsic’ pathway, which is triggered by engagement of cell surface ‘death receptors’ such as Fas/APO-1; and the ‘intrinsic’ pathway, which is triggered by diverse cellular stresses, and is regulated by prosurvival and pro-apoptotic members of the Bcl-2 family of proteins. Pro-survival Mcl-1, which can block activation of the proapoptotic proteins, Bax and Bak, appears critical for the survival and maintenance of multiple haemopoietic cell types. To investigate the impact on haemopoiesis of simultaneously inhibiting both apoptosis pathways, we introduced the vavP-Mcl-1 transgene, which causes overexpression of Mcl-1 protein in all haemopoietic lineages, into Faslpr/lpr mice, which lack functional Fas and are prone to autoimmunity. The combined mutations had a modest impact on myelopoiesis, primarily an increase in the macrophage/monocyte population in Mcl-1tg/lpr mice compared with lpr or Mcl-1tg mice. The impact on lymphopoiesis was striking, with a marked elevation in all major lymphoid subsets, including the non-conventional double-negative (DN) T cells (TCRβ+ CD4– CD8– B220+ ) characteristic of Faslpr/lpr mice. Of note, the onset of autoimmunity was markedly accelerated in Mcl-1tg/lpr mice compared with lpr mice, and this was preceded by an increase in immunoglobulin (Ig)-producing cells and circulating autoantibodies. This degree of impact was surprising, given the relatively mild phenotype conferred by the vavP-Mcl-1 transgene by itself: a two- to threefold elevation of peripheral B and T cells, no significant increase in the non-conventional DN T-cell population and no autoimmune disease. Comparison of the phenotype with that of other susceptible mice suggests that the development of autoimmune disease in Mcl-1tg/lpr mice may be influenced not only by Ig-producing cells but also other haemopoietic cell types

Confronting and mitigating the risk of COVID-19 associated pulmonary aspergillosis.

Cases of COVID-19 associated pulmonary aspergillosis (CAPA) are being increasingly reported and physicians treating patients with COVID-19-related lung disease need to actively consider these fungal co-infections. The SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) virus causes a wide spectrum of disease in healthy individuals as well as those with common comorbidities [1]. Severe COVID-19 is characterised acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) secondary to viral pneumonitis, treatment of which may require mechanical ventilation or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) [2]. Clinicians are alert to the possibility of bacterial co-infection as a complication of lower respiratory tract viral infection; for example a recent review found that 72% of patients with COVID-19 received antimicrobial therapy [3]. However, the risk of fungal co-infection, in particular COVID-19 associated pulmonary aspergillosis (CAPA), remains underappreciated. Fungal disease consistent with invasive aspergillosis (IA) has been observed with other severe Coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV-2003) [4, 5] and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) [6]. From the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there were warning signs of secondary invasive fungal infection; Aspergillus flavus was isolated from the respiratory tract from one of 99 patients in the first COVID-19 cohort from Wuhan to be reported in any detail [2] and Aspergillus spp. were isolated from 2/52 (3.8%) of a subsequent cohort of critically unwell patients from this region [7]. More recently, retrospective case series from Belgium [8], France [9], The Netherlands [10] and Germany [11] have reported evidence of CAPA in an alarming 20–35% of mechanically ventilated patients