A universal model for mobility and migration patterns

Introduced in its contemporary form by George Kingsley Zipf in 1946, but with roots that go back to the work of Gaspard Monge in the 18th century, the gravity law is the prevailing framework to predict population movement, cargo shipping volume, inter-city phone calls, as well as bilateral trade flows between nations. Despite its widespread use, it relies on adjustable parameters that vary from region to region and suffers from known analytic inconsistencies. Here we introduce a stochastic process capturing local mobility decisions that helps us analytically derive commuting and mobility fluxes that require as input only information on the population distribution. The resulting radiation model predicts mobility patterns in good agreement with mobility and transport patterns observed in a wide range of phenomena, from long-term migration patterns to communication volume between different regions. Given its parameter-free nature, the model can be applied in areas where we lack previous mobility measurements, significantly improving the predictive accuracy of most of phenomena affected by mobility and transport processes.Comment: Main text and supplementary informatio

CR1 Knops blood group alleles are not associated with severe malaria in the Gambia

The Knops blood group antigen erythrocyte polymorphisms have been associated with reduced falciparum malaria-based in vitro rosette formation (putative malaria virulence factor). Having previously identified single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the human complement receptor 1 (CR1/CD35) gene underlying the Knops antithetical antigens Sl1/Sl2 and McC(a)/McC(b), we have now performed genotype comparisons to test associations between these two molecular variants and severe malaria in West African children living in the Gambia. While SNPs associated with Sl:2 and McC(b+) were equally distributed among malaria-infected children with severe malaria and control children not infected with malaria parasites, high allele frequencies for Sl 2 (0.800, 1,365/1,706) and McC(b) (0.385, 658/1706) were observed. Further, when compared to the Sl 1/McC(a) allele observed in all populations, the African Sl 2/McC(b) allele appears to have evolved as a result of positive selection (modified Nei-Gojobori test Ka-Ks/s.e.=1.77, P-value <0.05). Given the role of CR1 in host defense, our findings suggest that Sl 2 and McC(b) have arisen to confer a selective advantage against infectious disease that, in view of these case-control study data, was not solely Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Factors underlying the lack of association between Sl 2 and McC(b) with severe malaria may involve variation in CR1 expression levels

Residential mobility during pregnancy in the north of England

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Many epidemiological studies assign exposure to an individual's residence at a single time point, such as birth or death. This approach makes no allowance for migration and may result in exposure error, leading to reduced study power and biased risk estimates. Pregnancy outcomes are less susceptible to this bias, however data from North American populations indicate that pregnant women are a highly mobile group. We assessed mobility in pregnant women in the north of England using data from the Northern Congenital Abnormality Survey (NorCAS).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were extracted from NorCAS for 1985 to 2003. Eligible cases had a gestational age at delivery of ≥ 24 weeks (a viable delivery) (n = 11 559). We assessed mobility between booking appointment (average gestational age 13 weeks) and delivery for pregnancies where the address at booking appointment and delivery were known. The impacts on mobility of maternal age and area-level socio-economic indicators were explored using standard descriptive statistics. A sensitivity analysis and a small validation exercise were undertaken to assess the impact of missing data on the estimate of mobility.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Out of 7 919 eligible cases for whom addresses at booking and delivery were known, 705 (8.9% (95% CI 8.3 - 9.5)) moved between booking and delivery; the mean and median moving distance was 9.7 and 1.4 km respectively. Movers were significantly younger (25.4 versus 27.3 years, p < 0.01) and lived in more deprived areas (index of multiple deprivation score 38.3 versus 33.7, p < 0.01) than non movers.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Mobility in the north of England (9%) is considerably lower than that reported in North America and the only other study from the UK (23%). Consistent with other studies, mobility was related to maternal age and socio-economic status, and the majority of moves were over a relatively short distance. Although this population appears relatively stable, the mobility we have observed may still introduce misclassification or error into an exposure assessment relying solely on postcode at delivery, and migration should still therefore be considered a potential source of bias in future studies.</p

A Randomized Controlled Pilot Trial of Azithromycin or Artesunate Added to Sulfadoxine-Pyrimethamine as Treatment for Malaria in Pregnant Women

New anti-malarial regimens are urgently needed in sub-Saharan Africa because of the increase in drug resistance. We investigated the safety and efficacy of azithromycin or artesunate combined with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine used for treatment of malaria in pregnant women in Blantyre, Malawi.This was a randomized open-label clinical trial, conducted at two rural health centers in Blantyre district, Malawi. A total of 141 pregnant women with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria were recruited and randomly allocated to 3 treatment groups: sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP; 3 tablets, 500 mg sulfadoxine and 25 mg pyrimethamine per tablet); SP plus azithromycin (1 g/dayx2 days); or SP plus artesunate (200 mg/dayx3 days). Women received two doses administered at least 4 weeks apart. Heteroduplex tracking assays were performed to distinguish recrudescence from new infections. Main outcome measures were incidence of adverse outcomes, parasite and fever clearance times and recrudescence rates. All treatment regimens were well tolerated. Two women vomited soon after ingesting azithromycin. The parasite clearance time was significantly faster in the SP-artesunate group. Recrudescent episodes of malaria were less frequent with SP-azithromycin [Hazard Ratio 0.19 (95% confidence interval 0.06 to 0.63)] and SP-artesunate [Hazard Ratio 0.25 (95% confidence interval 0.10 to 0.65)] compared with SP monotherapy. With one exception (an abortion in the SP-azithromycin group), all adverse pregnancy outcomes could be attributed to known infectious or obstetrical causes. Because of the small sample size, the effect on birth outcomes, maternal malaria or maternal anemia could not be evaluated.Both SP-artesunate and SP-azithromycin appeared to be safe, well tolerated and efficacious for the treatment of malaria during pregnancy. A larger study is needed to determine their safety and efficacy in preventing poor birth outcomes.ClinialTrials.gov NCT00287300

The presence of extracellular matrix degrading metalloproteinases during fetal development of the intervertebral disc

Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) regulate connective tissue architecture and cell migration through extracellular matrix (ECM) degradation and are associated with both physiological and pathological processes. Although they are known to play a role in skeletal development, little is known about the role of MMPs in intervertebral disc (IVD) development. Sixteen fetal human lumbar spine segments, obtained at autopsy, were compared with five normal, non-fetal L4–L5 IVDs. Intensity and/or localization of immunohistochemical staining for MMP-1, -2, -3 and -14 were evaluated by three independent observers. MMP-2 production and activation was quantified by gelatin zymography. MMP-1 and -14 were abundantly present in the nucleus pulposus (NP) and notochordal (NC) cells of the fetal IVDs. In non-fetal IVDs, MMP-1 and -14 staining was significantly less intense (p = 0.001 and p < 0.001, respectively). MMP-3 was found in almost the entire IVD with no significant difference from non-fetal IVDs. MMP-2 staining in the NC and NP cells of the fetal IVD was moderate, but weak in the non-fetal IVD. Gelatin zymography showed a negative correlation of age with MMP-2 activity (p < 0.001). MMP-14 immunostaining correlated positively with MMP-2 activity (p = 0.001). For the first time, the presence of MMP-1, -2, -3 and -14 in the fetal human IVD is shown and the high levels of MMP-1, -2 and -14 suggest a role in the development of the IVD. In particular, the gradual decrease in MMP-2 activation during gestation pinpoints this enzyme as key player in fetal development, possibly through activation by MMP-1 and -14

River water quality assessment using environmentric techniques : case study of Jakara River Basin.

akara River Basin has been extensively studied to assess the overall water quality and to identify the major variables responsible for water quality variations in the basin. A total of 27 sampling points were selected in the riverine network of the Upper Jakara River Basin. Water samples were collected in triplicate and analyzed for physicochemical variables. Pearson product-moment correlation analysis was conducted to evaluate the relationship of water quality parameters and revealed a significant relationship between salinity, conductivity with dissolved solids (DS) and 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5), chemical oxygen demand (COD), and nitrogen in form of ammonia (NH4). Partial correlation analysis (r p) results showed that there is a strong relationship between salinity and turbidity (r p = 0.930, p = 0.001) and BOD5 and COD (r p = 0.839, p = 0.001) controlling for the linear effects of conductivity and NH4, respectively. Principal component analysis and or factor analysis was used to investigate the origin of each water quality parameter in the Jakara Basin and identified three major factors explaining 68.11 % of the total variance in water quality. The major variations are related to anthropogenic activities (irrigation agricultural, construction activities, clearing of land, and domestic waste disposal) and natural processes (erosion of river bank and runoff). Discriminant analysis (DA) was applied on the dataset to maximize the similarities between group relative to within-group variance of the parameters. DA provided better results with great discriminatory ability using eight variables (DO, BOD5, COD, SS, NH4, conductivity, salinity, and DS) as the most statistically significantly responsible for surface water quality variation in the area. The present study, however, makes several noteworthy contributions to the existing knowledge on the spatial variations of surface water quality and is believed to serve as a baseline data for further studies. Future research should therefore concentrate on the investigation of temporal variations of water quality in the basin

Rapid detection of pandemic influenza in the presence of seasonal influenza

Background: Key to the control of pandemic influenza are surveillance systems that raise alarms rapidly and sensitively. In addition, they must minimise false alarms during a normal influenza season. We develop a method that uses historical syndromic influenza data from the existing surveillance system 'SERVIS' (Scottish Enhanced Respiratory Virus Infection Surveillance) for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Scotland. Methods: We develop an algorithm based on the weekly case ratio (WCR) of reported ILI cases to generate an alarm for pandemic influenza. From the seasonal influenza data from 13 Scottish health boards, we estimate the joint probability distribution of the country-level WCR and the number of health boards showing synchronous increases in reported influenza cases over the previous week. Pandemic cases are sampled with various case reporting rates from simulated pandemic influenza infections and overlaid with seasonal SERVIS data from 2001 to 2007. Using this combined time series we test our method for speed of detection, sensitivity and specificity. Also, the 2008-09 SERVIS ILI cases are used for testing detection performances of the three methods with a real pandemic data. Results: We compare our method, based on our simulation study, to the moving-average Cumulative Sums (Mov-Avg Cusum) and ILI rate threshold methods and find it to be more sensitive and rapid. For 1% case reporting and detection specificity of 95%, our method is 100% sensitive and has median detection time (MDT) of 4 weeks while the Mov-Avg Cusum and ILI rate threshold methods are, respectively, 97% and 100% sensitive with MDT of 5 weeks. At 99% specificity, our method remains 100% sensitive with MDT of 5 weeks. Although the threshold method maintains its sensitivity of 100% with MDT of 5 weeks, sensitivity of Mov-Avg Cusum declines to 92% with increased MDT of 6 weeks. For a two-fold decrease in the case reporting rate (0.5%) and 99% specificity, the WCR and threshold methods, respectively, have MDT of 5 and 6 weeks with both having sensitivity close to 100% while the Mov-Avg Cusum method can only manage sensitivity of 77% with MDT of 6 weeks. However, the WCR and Mov-Avg Cusum methods outperform the ILI threshold method by 1 week in retrospective detection of the 2009 pandemic in Scotland. Conclusions: While computationally and statistically simple to implement, the WCR algorithm is capable of raising alarms, rapidly and sensitively, for influenza pandemics against a background of seasonal influenza. Although the algorithm was developed using the SERVIS data, it has the capacity to be used at other geographic scales and for different disease systems where buying some early extra time is critical

Plasmodium vivax Adherence to Placental Glycosaminoglycans

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium vivax infections seldom kill directly but do cause indirect mortality by reducing birth weight and causing abortion. Cytoadherence and sequestration in the microvasculature are central to the pathogenesis of severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria, but the contribution of cytoadherence to pathology in other human malarias is less clear. METHODOLOGY: The adherence properties of P. vivax infected red blood cells (PvIRBC) were evaluated under static and flow conditions. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: P. vivax isolates from 33 patients were studied. None adhered to immobilized CD36, ICAM-1, or thrombospondin, putative ligands for P. falciparum vascular cytoadherence, or umbilical vein endothelial cells, but all adhered to immobilized chondroitin sulphate A (CSA) and hyaluronic acid (HA), the receptors for adhesion of P. falciparum in the placenta. PvIRBC also adhered to fresh placental cells (N = 5). Pre-incubation with chondroitinase prevented PvIRBC adherence to CSA, and reduced binding to HA, whereas preincubation with hyaluronidase prevented adherence to HA, but did not reduce binding to CSA significantly. Pre-incubation of PvIRBC with soluble CSA and HA reduced binding to the immobilized receptors and prevented placental binding. PvIRBC adhesion was prevented by pre-incubation with trypsin, inhibited by heparin, and reduced by EGTA. Under laminar flow conditions the mean (SD) shear stress reducing maximum attachment by 50% was 0.06 (0.02) Pa but, having adhered, the PvIRBC could then resist detachment by stresses up to 5 Pa. At 37 °C adherence began approximately 16 hours after red cell invasion with maximal adherence at 30 hours. At 39 °C adherence began earlier and peaked at 24 hours. SIGNIFICANCE: Adherence of P. vivax-infected erythrocytes to glycosaminoglycans may contribute to the pathogenesis of vivax malaria and lead to intrauterine growth retardation

Season of birth and handedness in Serbian high school students

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although behavioural dominance of the right hand in humans is likely to be under genetic control, departures from this population norm, i.e. left- or non-right-handedness, are believed to be influenced by environmental factors. Among many such environmental factors including, for example, low birth weight, testosterone level, and maternal age at birth, season of birth has occasionally been investigated. The overall empirical evidence for the season of birth effect is mixed.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We have investigated the effect of season of birth in an epidemiologically robust sample of randomly selected young people (n = 977), all born in the same year. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov type statistical test was used to determine season of birth.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Neither the right-handed nor the non-right-handed groups demonstrated birth asymmetry relative to the normal population birth distribution. There was no between-group difference in the seasonal distribution of birth when comparing the right-handed to the non-right-handed groups.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The present study failed to provide support for a season of birth effect on atypical lateralisation of handedness in humans.</p

Detection of Closed Internal Fatigue Cracks

This paper reviews some recent work on the detection and sizing of closed internal fatigue cracks by ultrasonic techniques. Major emphasis is put on the diffraction of shear waves at the crack tip. Both fully open as well as partially closed cracks were considered. The effect of crack closure stress on back- scattered (pulse-echo) shear waves was studied with the aid of an A1 compact tension specimen. Noticeable changes with crack closure stress were documented for the structure of both the time- domain and frequency-domain representations. The techniques acquired with this specimen were applied to the study of a 50 μm radius semi-circular crack internal to a diffusion bonded Ti-alloy plate. Improved signal processing techniques were employed to detect the crack and to distinguish it from an artificial surface crack. The probability of detection, assumed to be proportional to the signal-to-noise ratio, was measured as a function of crack interrogation angle and crack closure stress to provide data on optimum probability for detection and sizing. Vigorous research efforts on good models for closed cracks in specific materials and environments are needed to refine the techniques of detection probability.</p