PRIVATE SAVINGS IN TRANSITION ECONOMIES: ARE THERE TERMS OF TRADE SHOCKS?

The paper examines the impact of terms of trade shocks on private savings in the transition economies after accounting for the effect of other determinants. Economic agents in the transition economies are subject to tight credit constraints which are more pronounced during bad state of nature. Thus, adverse shocks to commodity prices in the world market can force them to reduce savings by a larger amount than they would otherwise have. Empirical analysis using a dynamic panel model and data from twenty one transition economies confirm that most of the determinants of savings identified in the literature also apply to the transition economies. Favorable movements in both the permanent and transitory components of the terms of trade have a significant positive impact on private savings with transitory movements having a larger impact than the permanent component. This reflects the lack of access to foreign borrowing that many of the transition economies have faced during the last decade. Although the impact of terms of trade shocks are found to be asymmetric, the magnitude of the impact appears to be small. The results are robust for alternative estimators, determinants, and country groupings.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39958/3/wp572.pd

ANÁLISE DOS RUÍDOS RESPIRATÓRIOS DE CAVALOS ATLETAS NO DIAGNÓSTICO DA HEMIPLEGIA DE LARINGE

Hemiplegia of the larynx is one of the main diseases that affect the upper airway in horses.  Alternative methods have been researched to determine the effects of different degrees of hemiplegia on the performance of horses.  The objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of employing the analysis of respiratory sounds to diagnose hemiplegia of the larynx during intense physical activity while in real conditions exercising on the track.  Ten horses were used to perform this study; the horses were divided into three groups:  healthy animals (control group), animals that underwent an experimental induction of hemiplegia of the larynx (HLI), and– animals naturally affected by the disease (HL).  An intranasal probe containing a microphone attached to a digital recorder was positioned in the pharynx and used to record the sounds.  The sounds were transferred to a laptop and analyzed.  The maximum decibel of the inhalation of HLI and HL demonstrated a significant difference when compared with control group, while the other data showed no significant differences.  The magnitude of the maximum decibels of  inhalation were shown to be significantly different in animals with both natural and induced forms of hemiplegia of the larynx; this method can thus be used in the diagnosis of hemiplegia of the larynx and its interference with the athletic performance of horses in field conditions.A hemiplegia de laringe é uma das principais afecções das vias aéreas superiores nos cavalos. Pesquisas de novos métodos para determinar o efeito dos diferentes graus de hemiplegia na performance atlética de cavalos têm sido realizadas. O objetivo do presente estudo foi avaliar a eficiência da análise dos ruídos respiratórios no diagnóstico da hemiplegia de laringe, durante a atividade física intensa em condições reais de exercício em pista. Foram utilizados dez cavalos divididos em três grupos: animais saudáveis (controle), animais induzidos experimentalmente a hemiplegia de laringe (HLI), e animais naturalmente acometidos pela doença (HL). A gravação do áudio foi realizada através de sonda intranasal, posicionada na faringe, contendo microfone conectado a um gravador digital, cujos dados foram posteriormente transferidos para um computador e analisados. Os decibéis inspiratórios máximos dos Grupos HLI e HL demonstraram diferença significativa quando comparados ao grupo controle, e os demais dados avaliados não apresentaram diferenças significativas.  A amplitude máxima dos decibéis inspiratórios mostrou ser significativamente diferente nos animais com hemiplegia de laringe natural e induzida, podendo desta forma ser utilizada no diagnóstico da interferência da hemiplegia de laringe no desempenho atlético de cavalos em condições de campo

Economic liberalization and the antecedents of top management teams: evidence from Turkish 'big' business

There has been an increased interest in the last two decades in top management teams (TMTs) of business firms. Much of the research, however, has been US-based and concerned primarily with TMT effects on organizational outcomes. The present study aims to expand this literature by examining the antecedents of top team composition in the context of macro-level economic change in a late-industrializing country. The post-1980 trade and market reforms in Turkey provided the empirical setting. Drawing upon the literatures on TMT and chief executive characteristics together with punctuated equilibrium models of change and institutional theory, the article develops the argument that which firm-level factors affect which attributes of TMT formations varies across the early and late stages of economic liberalization. Results of the empirical investigation of 71 of the largest industrial firms in Turkey broadly supported the hypotheses derived from this premise. In the early stages of economic liberalization the average age and average organizational tenure of TMTs were related to the export orientation of firms, whereas in later stages, firm performance became a major predictor of these team attributes. Educational background characteristics of teams appeared to be under stronger institutional pressures, altering in different ways in the face of macro-level change

Exploring the Galaxy's halo and very metal-weak thick disk with SkyMapper and Gaia DR2

In this work we combine spectroscopic information from the \textit{SkyMapper survey for Extremely Metal-Poor stars} and astrometry from Gaia DR2 to investigate the kinematics of a sample of 475 stars with a metallicity range of $-6.5 \leq \rm [Fe/H] \leq -2.05$ dex. Exploiting the action map, we identify 16 and 40 stars dynamically consistent with the \textit{Gaia Sausage} and \textit{Gaia Sequoia} accretion events, respectively. The most metal-poor of these candidates have metallicities of $\rm [Fe/H]=-3.31$ and $\rm [Fe/H]=-3.74$, respectively, helping to define the low-metallicity tail of the progenitors involved in the accretion events. We also find, consistent with other studies, that $\sim$21\% of the sample have orbits that remain confined to within 3~kpc of the Galactic plane, i.e., |Z$_{max}$| $\leq$ 3~kpc. Of particular interest is a sub-sample ($\sim$11\% of the total) of low |Z$_{max}$| stars with low eccentricities and prograde motions. The lowest metallicity of these stars has [Fe/H] = --4.30 and the sub-sample is best interpreted as the very low-metallicity tail of the metal-weak thick disk population. The low |Z$_{max}$|, low eccentricity stars with retrograde orbits are likely accreted, while the low |Z$_{max}$|, high eccentricity pro- and retrograde stars are plausibly associated with the \textit{Gaia Sausage} system. We find that a small fraction of our sample ($\sim$4\% of the total) is likely escaping from the Galaxy, and postulate that these stars have gained energy from gravitational interactions that occur when infalling dwarf galaxies are tidally disrupted.Comment: 23 pages, 15 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Multivariate extreme value modelling of sea conditions around the coast of England

It is widely recognised that coastal flood events can arise from combinations of extreme waves and sea levels. For flood risk analysis and the design of coastal structures it is therefore necessary to assess the joint probability of the occurrence of these variables. Traditional methods have involved the application of joint probability contours, defined in terms of extremes of sea conditions that can, if applied without correction factors, lead to the underestimation of flood risk and under-design of coastal structures. This paper describes the application of a robust multivariate statistical model to analyse extreme offshore waves, wind and sea levels around the coast of England. The approach described here is risk based in that it seeks to define extremes of response variables directly, rather than the joint extremes of sea conditions. The output of the statistical model comprises a Monte Carlo simulation of extreme events. These distributions of extreme events have been transformed from offshore to nearshore using a statistical emulator of a wave transformation model. The resulting nearshore extreme sea condition distributions have the potential to be applied for a range of purposes. The application is demonstrated using two structures located on the south coast of England