Sobre o debate freqüentista versus probabilista: "sorte de tolo" torna-se uma explicação plausível

Um debate entre Kahneman e colaboradores por um lado, e Gigerenzer e colaboradores e Cosmides e colaboradores por outro, tem ocorrido na área de raciocínio sobre probabilidades condicionais. Kahneman e Tversky propuseram que as pessoas tipicamente representam informações em termos de exemplos individuais, e, então, elas fazem julgamentos usando processos de raciocínio que se baseiam em tais exemplos. Cosmides e colaboradores, entretanto, propuseram que as pessoas tipicamente representam informações sobre freqüências populacionais. Uma série de problemas metodológicos nas comparações entre problemas freqüentistas e probabilistas levantadas por Gingerenzer e Hoffrage e por Cosmides e Tooby é discutida. Finalmente, discutimos uma possível estratégia, denominada por O'Brien, Roazzi e Dias de teoria Sorte de Tolo. Este artigo assegura que os problemas de formato freqüentista permitem a existência de uma estratégia de adivinhação que não existe nos problemas de formato probabilista, e levanta a possibilidade de que toda a literatura nesta área tem falsamente assumido que as respostas corretas se originam de apropriadas linhas de raciocínio, enquanto que respostas incorretas não, o que indica, de certa forma, que nem respostas corretas nem incorretas têm se originado de linhas de raciocínio Bayesiano.<br>A debate between Kahneman and Tversky and their associates, on the one hand, and Gigerenzer and his associates and Cosmides and her associates, on the other hand, has been fought in the area of reasoning about conditional probabilities. Kahneman and Tversky proposed that people typically represent information in terms of individual exemplars, and thus people make judgments using reasoning processes that are based on such individual exemplars. Cosmides and Gigerenzer and their associates, however, proposed that people typically represent information about population frequencies. A series of confounds in the comparisons between frequentist and probabilist problems by Gigerenzer and Hoffrage, and by Cosmides and Tooby are discussed.. Finally, we discuss a possible strategy, labeled by O'Brien, Roazzi and Dias as "the dumb-luck theory". This proposal holds that frequentist-formatted problems made available a successful guessing strategy that was not available on the probabilist-formatted problems, and the proposal opens the possibility that the entire research literature in this area has falsely assumed that correct answers stem from appropriate lines of reasoning, whereas incorrect answers do not, indicating in such a way that neither the correct nor the incorrect answers have stemmed from Bayesian lines of reasoning at all

Lower incidence rates but thicker melanomas in Eastern Europe before 1992: A comparison with Western Europe

The objective of this study was to investigate the epidemiology of melanoma across Europe with regard to Breslow thickness and body-site distribution. Incidence data from Cancer Incidence in 5 Continents and the EUROCARE-melanoma database were used: 28 117 melanoma cases from 20 cancer registries in 12 European countries, diagnosed between 1978 and 1992. Regression analysis and general linear modelling were used to analyse the data. Melanomas in Eastern Europe were on average 1.4 mm thicker (P<0.05) than in Western Europe and appeared more often on the trunk. From 1978 to 1992, their Breslow thickness had decreased in Western but not Eastern Europe. There was a latitude gradient in incidence, with highest rates in southern regions in Eastern Europe and an inverse gradient in Western Europe, with highest rates in the North. Mortality:incidence ratios were less favourable in southern parts across Europe, especially in Eastern Europe. If Eastern European populations copy the sunbathing behaviour of the West it is likely that in the near future a higher melanoma incidence can be expected there

What if cancer survival in Britain were the same as in Europe: how many deaths are avoidable?

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the number of deaths among cancer patients diagnosed in Great Britain that would be avoidable within 5 years of diagnosis if the mean (or highest) survival in Europe for patients diagnosed during 1985-1989, 1990-1994 and 1995-1999 were achieved. DESIGN: Five-year relative survival for cancers in Great Britain compared with that from other countries in the EUROCARE-2, -3 and -4 studies. Calculation of excess deaths (those more than expected from mortality in the general population) that would be avoidable among cancer patients in Britain if relative survival were the same as in Europe. SETTING: Great Britain (England, Wales, Scotland) and 13 other European countries. SUBJECTS: 2.8 million adults diagnosed in Britain with 1 of 39 cancers during 1985-1989 (followed up to 1994), 1990-1994 (followed up to 1999) and 1995-1999 (followed up to 2003). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Annual number of avoidable deaths within 5 years of diagnosis. Percentage of the excess (cancer-related) deaths among cancer patients that would be avoidable. RESULTS: Compared with the mean European 5-year relative survival, the largest numbers of avoidable deaths for patients diagnosed during 1985-1989 were for cancers of the breast (about 18% of the excess mortality from this cancer, 7541 deaths), prostate (14%, 4285), colon (9%, 4090), stomach (8%, 3483) and lung (2%, 3548). For 1990-1994, the largest numbers of avoidable deaths were for cancers of the prostate (20%, 7335), breast (15%, 6165), colon (9%, 4376), stomach (9%, 3672), lung (2%, 3735) and kidney (22%, 2644). For 1995-1999, most of the avoidable deaths were for cancers of the prostate (17%, 5758), breast (15%, 5475), lung (3%, 4923), colon (10%, 4295), stomach (9%, 3137) and kidney (21%, 2686).Overall, some 6600-7500 premature deaths would have been avoided each year among cancer patients diagnosed in Britain during 1985-1999 if the mean survival in Europe had been achieved. This represents 6-7% of cancer-related mortality. Compared with the highest European survival, avoidable premature mortality among cancer patients fell from about 12 800 deaths a year (12.2% of cancer-related mortality) to about 11 400 deaths a year (10.6%) over the same period.A large component of the avoidable mortality is due to prostate cancer: excluding this cancer from comparison with the European mean survival reduces the annual number of avoidable deaths by 1000-1500, and the percentage of excess mortality by up to 1%. Compared with the highest survival, the annual number of avoidable deaths would be 1500-2000 fewer, and 1-2% lower as a percentage of excess mortality, but the overall trend in avoidable premature mortality among cancer patients would be similar, falling from 11.4% (1985-1989) to 10.3% (1990-1994) and 9.7% for those diagnosed during 1995-1999.For several cancers, survival in Britain was slightly higher than the mean survival in Europe; this represented some 110-180 premature deaths avoided each year during the period 1985-2003. CONCLUSIONS: Avoidable premature mortality among cancer patients diagnosed in Britain during 1985-1999 has represented 6-7% of cancer-related mortality compared with the mean survival in Europe. Compared with the highest levels of survival in Europe, the reduction from 12.2% to 10.6% of cancer-related mortality reflects small but steady progress over the period 1985-2003

Vitalism in contemporary chiropractic: a help or a hinderance?

Background: Chiropractic emerged in 1895 and was promoted as a viable health care substitute in direct competition with the medical profession. This was an era when there was a belief that one cause and one cure for all disease would be discovered. The chiropractic version was a theory that most diseases were caused by subluxated (slightly displaced) vertebrae interfering with “nerve vibrations” (a supernatural, vital force) and could be cured by adjusting (repositioning) vertebrae, thereby removing the interference with the body’s inherent capacity to heal. DD Palmer, the originator of chiropractic, established chiropractic based on vitalistic principles. Anecdotally, the authors have observed that many chiropractors who overtly claim to be “vitalists” cannot define the term. Therefore, we sought the origins of vitalism and to examine its effects on chiropractic today. Discussion: Vitalism arose out of human curiosity around the biggest questions: Where do we come from? What is life? For some, life was derived from an unknown and unknowable vital force. For others, a vital force was a placeholder, a piece of knowledge not yet grasped but attainable. Developments in science have demonstrated there is no longer a need to invoke vitalistic entities as either explanations or hypotheses for biological phenomena. Nevertheless, vitalism remains within chiropractic. In this examination of vitalism within chiropractic we explore the history of vitalism, vitalism within chiropractic and whether a vitalistic ideology is compatible with the legal and ethical requirements for registered health care professionals such as chiropractors. Conclusion: Vitalism has had many meanings throughout the centuries of recorded history. Though only vaguely defined by chiropractors, vitalism, as a representation of supernatural force and therefore an untestable hypothesis, sits at the heart of the divisions within chiropractic and acts as an impediment to chiropractic legitimacy, cultural authority and integration into mainstream health care

European Multicentre Tics in Children Studies (EMTICS): protocol for two cohort studies to assess risk factors for tic onset and exacerbation in children and adolescents

Genetic predisposition, autoimmunity and environmental factors [e.g. pre- and perinatal difficulties, Group A Streptococcal (GAS) and other infections, stress-inducing events] might interact to create a neurobiological vulnerability to the development of tics and associated behaviours. However, the existing evidence for this relies primarily on small prospective or larger retrospective population-based studies, and is therefore still inconclusive. This article describes the design and methodology of the EMTICS study, a longitudinal observational European multicentre study involving 16 clinical centres, with the following objectives: (1) to investigate the association of environmental factors (GAS exposure and psychosocial stress, primarily) with the onset and course of tics and/or obsessive-compulsive symptoms through the prospective observation of at-risk individuals (ONSET cohort: 260 children aged 3-10 years who are tic-free at study entry and have a first-degree relative with a chronic tic disorder) and affected individuals (COURSE cohort: 715 youth aged 3-16 years with a tic disorder); (2) to characterise the immune response to microbial antigens and the host's immune response regulation in association with onset and exacerbations of tics; (3) to increase knowledge of the human gene pathways influencing the pathogenesis of tic disorders; and (4) to develop prediction models for the risk of onset and exacerbations of tic disorders. The EMTICS study is, to our knowledge, the largest prospective cohort assessment of the contribution of different genetic and environmental factors to the risk of developing tics in putatively predisposed individuals and to the risk of exacerbating tics in young individuals with chronic tic disorders

Competenze relazionali nel gruppo dei pari e relazione genitore-bambino: il peso dei modelli operativi interni dell'attaccamento delle madri e dei padri, in International Journal od Developmental and Educational Psychology

International Journal of Developmental and Educational Psycholog