Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe

Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. Of particular interest is the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction timescale. The S2S prediction timescale has received increasing attention in the research community because of its importance for many sectors. However, very few forecast skill assessments of precipitation extremes in S2S forecast data have been conducted. The goal of this article is to assess the forecast skill of rare events, here extreme precipitation, in S2S forecasts, using a metric specifically designed for extremes. We verify extreme precipitation events over Europe in the S2S forecast model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The verification is conducted against ERA5 reanalysis precipitation. Extreme precipitation is defined as daily precipitation accumulations exceeding the seasonal 95th percentile. In addition to the classical Brier score, we use a binary loss index to assess skill. The binary loss index is tailored to assess the skill of rare events. We analyze daily events that are locally and spatially aggregated, as well as 7 d extreme-event counts. Results consistently show a higher skill in winter compared to summer. The regions showing the highest skill are Norway, Portugal and the south of the Alps. Skill increases when aggregating the extremes spatially or temporally. The verification methodology can be adapted and applied to other variables, e.g., temperature extremes or river discharge.</p

Amorphous-amorphous transition and the two-step replica symmetry breaking phase

The nature of polyamorphism and amorphous-to-amorphous transition is investigated by means of an exactly solvable model with quenched disorder, the spherical s+p multi-spin interaction model. The analysis is carried out in the framework of Replica Symmetry Breaking theory and leads to the identification of low temperature glass phases of different kinds. Besides the usual `one-step' solution, known to reproduce all basic properties of structural glasses, also a physically consistent `two-step' solution arises. More complicated phases are found as well, as temperature is further decreased, expressing a complex variety of metastable states structures for amorphous systems.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures, longer version, new references adde

Landscape of solutions in constraint satisfaction problems

We present a theoretical framework for characterizing the geometrical properties of the space of solutions in constraint satisfaction problems, together with practical algorithms for studying this structure on particular instances. We apply our method to the coloring problem, for which we obtain the total number of solutions and analyze in detail the distribution of distances between solutions.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures. Replaced with published versio

Cusps and shocks in the renormalized potential of glassy random manifolds: How Functional Renormalization Group and Replica Symmetry Breaking fit together

We compute the Functional Renormalization Group (FRG) disorder- correlator function R(v) for d-dimensional elastic manifolds pinned by a random potential in the limit of infinite embedding space dimension N. It measures the equilibrium response of the manifold in a quadratic potential well as the center of the well is varied from 0 to v. We find two distinct scaling regimes: (i) a "single shock" regime, v^2 ~ 1/L^d where L^d is the system volume and (ii) a "thermodynamic" regime, v^2 ~ N. In regime (i) all the equivalent replica symmetry breaking (RSB) saddle points within the Gaussian variational approximation contribute, while in regime (ii) the effect of RSB enters only through a single anomaly. When the RSB is continuous (e.g., for short-range disorder, in dimension 2 <= d <= 4), we prove that regime (ii) yields the large-N FRG function obtained previously. In that case, the disorder correlator exhibits a cusp in both regimes, though with different amplitudes and of different physical origin. When the RSB solution is 1-step and non- marginal (e.g., d < 2 for SR disorder), the correlator R(v) in regime (ii) is considerably reduced, and exhibits no cusp. Solutions of the FRG flow corresponding to non-equilibrium states are discussed as well. In all cases the regime (i) exhibits a cusp non-analyticity at T=0, whose form and thermal rounding at finite T is obtained exactly and interpreted in terms of shocks. The results are compared with previous work, and consequences for manifolds at finite N, as well as extensions to spin glasses and related models are discussed.Comment: v2: Note added in proo

The cavity method for large deviations

A method is introduced for studying large deviations in the context of statistical physics of disordered systems. The approach, based on an extension of the cavity method to atypical realizations of the quenched disorder, allows us to compute exponentially small probabilities (rate functions) over different classes of random graphs. It is illustrated with two combinatorial optimization problems, the vertex-cover and coloring problems, for which the presence of replica symmetry breaking phases is taken into account. Applications include the analysis of models on adaptive graph structures.Comment: 18 pages, 7 figure

Random multi-index matching problems

The multi-index matching problem (MIMP) generalizes the well known matching problem by going from pairs to d-uplets. We use the cavity method from statistical physics to analyze its properties when the costs of the d-uplets are random. At low temperatures we find for d>2 a frozen glassy phase with vanishing entropy. We also investigate some properties of small samples by enumerating the lowest cost matchings to compare with our theoretical predictions.Comment: 22 pages, 16 figure

Reducing multi-photon rates in pulsed down-conversion by temporal multiplexing

We present a simple technique to reduce the emission rate of higher-order photon events from pulsed spontaneous parametric down-conversion. The technique uses extra-cavity control over a mode locked ultrafast laser to simultaneously increase repetition rate and reduce the energy of each pulse from the pump beam. We apply our scheme to a photonic quantum gate, showing improvements in the non-classical interference visibility for 2-photon and 4-photon experiments, and in the quantum-gate fidelity and entangled state production in the 2-photon case.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

Bevacizumab plus mFOLFOX-6 or FOLFOXIRI in patients with initially unresectable liver metastases from colorectal cancer: the OLIVIA multinational randomised phase II trial

OLIVIA, a multinational phase II study, suggests that bevacizumab plus FOLFOXIRI improves outcomes, including response rates, resection rates, and progression-free survival, compared with bevacizumab plus mFOLFOX-6 in patients with initially unresectable liver metastases from colorectal cance