Theoretical Sensitivity Analysis for Quantitative Operational Risk Management

We study the asymptotic behavior of the difference between the values at risk VaR(L) and VaR(L+S) for heavy tailed random variables L and S for application in sensitivity analysis of quantitative operational risk management within the framework of the advanced measurement approach of Basel II (and III). Here L describes the loss amount of the present risk profile and S describes the loss amount caused by an additional loss factor. We obtain different types of results according to the relative magnitudes of the thicknesses of the tails of L and S. In particular, if the tail of S is sufficiently thinner than the tail of L, then the difference between prior and posterior risk amounts VaR(L+S) - VaR(L) is asymptotically equivalent to the expectation (expected loss) of S.Comment: 21 pages, 1 figure, 4 tables, forthcoming in International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF

Experimental philosophy leading to a small scale digital data base of the conterminous United States for designing experiments with remotely sensed data

Research using satellite remotely sensed data, even within any single scientific discipline, often lacked a unifying principle or strategy with which to plan or integrate studies conducted over an area so large that exhaustive examination is infeasible, e.g., the U.S.A. However, such a series of studies would seem to be at the heart of what makes satellite remote sensing unique, that is the ability to select for study from among remotely sensed data sets distributed widely over the U.S., over time, where the resources do not exist to examine all of them. Using this philosophical underpinning and the concept of a unifying principle, an operational procedure for developing a sampling strategy and formal testable hypotheses was constructed. The procedure is applicable across disciplines, when the investigator restates the research question in symbolic form, i.e., quantifies it. The procedure is set within the statistical framework of general linear models. The dependent variable is any arbitrary function of remotely sensed data and the independent variables are values or levels of factors which represent regional climatic conditions and/or properties of the Earth's surface. These factors are operationally defined as maps from the U.S. National Atlas (U.S.G.S., 1970). Eighty-five maps from the National Atlas, representing climatic and surface attributes, were automated by point counting at an effective resolution of one observation every 17.6 km (11 miles) yielding 22,505 observations per map. The maps were registered to one another in a two step procedure producing a coarse, then fine scale registration. After registration, the maps were iteratively checked for errors using manual and automated procedures. The error free maps were annotated with identification and legend information and then stored as card images, one map to a file. A sampling design will be accomplished through a regionalization analysis of the National Atlas data base (presently being conducted). From this analysis a map of homogeneous regions of the U.S.A. will be created and samples (LANDSAT scenes) assigned by region

Confirmation of two extended objects along the line of sight to PKS1830-211 with ESO-VLT adaptive optics imaging

We report on new high-resolution near-infrared images of the gravitationally lensed radio source PKS1830-211, a quasar at z=2.507. These adaptive optics observations, taken with the Very Large Telescope (VLT), are further improved through image deconvolution. They confirm the presence of a second object along the line of sight to the quasar, in addition to the previously known spiral galaxy. This additional object is clearly extended in our images. However, its faint luminosity does not allow to infer any photometric redshift. If this galaxy is located in the foreground of PKS1830-211, it complicates the modeling of this system and decreases the interest in using PKS1830-211 as a means to determine H0 via the time delay between the two lensed images of the quasar.Comment: Accepted in A&A Letter

Phenotypic characteristics of the p.Asn215Ser (p.N215S) GLA mutation in male and female patients with Fabry disease: A multicenter Fabry Registry study.

BackgroundThe p.Asn215Ser or p.N215S GLA variant has been associated with late-onset cardiac variant of Fabry disease.MethodsTo expand on the scarce phenotype data, we analyzed natural history data from 125 p.N215S patients (66 females, 59 males) enrolled in the Fabry Registry (NCT00196742) and compared it with data from 401 patients (237 females, 164 males) harboring mutations associated with classic Fabry disease. We evaluated interventricular septum thickness (IVST), left ventricular posterior wall thickness (LVPWT), estimated glomerular filtration rate and severe clinical events.ResultsIn p.N215S males, mildly abnormal mean IVST and LVPWT values were observed in patients aged 25-34 years, and values gradually increased with advancing age. Mean values were similar to those of classic males. In p.N215S females, these abnormalities occurred primarily in patients aged 55-64 years. Severe clinical events in p.N215S patients were mainly cardiac (males 31%, females 8%) while renal and cerebrovascular events were rare. Renal impairment occurred in 17% of p.N215S males (mostly in patients aged 65-74 years), and rarely in females (3%).Conclusionp.N215S is a disease-causing mutation with severe clinical manifestations found primarily in the heart. Cardiac involvement may become as severe as in classic Fabry patients, especially in males

K-band Spectroscopy of Clusters in NGC 4038/4039

Integral field spectroscopy in the K-band (1.9-2.4um) was performed on four IR-bright star clusters and the two nuclei in NGC 4038/4039 (``The Antennae''). Two of the clusters are located in the overlap region of the two galaxies, and together comprise ~25% of the total 15um and ~10% of the total 4.8 GHz emission from this pair of merging galaxies. The other two clusters, each of them spatially resolved into two components, are located in the northern galaxy, one in the western and one in the eastern loop of blue clusters. Comparing our analysis of Brgamma, CO band-heads, He I (2.058um), Halpha (from archival HST data), and V-K colors with stellar population synthesis models indicates that the clusters are extincted (A_V ~ 0.7 - 4.3 mags) and young, displaying a significant age spread (4-13 Myrs). The starbursts in the nuclei are much older (65 Myrs), with the nucleus of NGC 4038 displaying a region of recent star formation northward of its K-band peak. Using our derived age estimates and assuming the parameters of the IMF (Salpeter slope, upper mass cut-off of 100 M_sun, Miller-Scalo between 1 M_sun and 0.1 M_sun), we find that the clusters have masses between 0.5 and 5 * 10^6M_sun.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, ApJ accepte

Extreme values and fat tails of multifractal fluctuations

In this paper we discuss the problem of the estimation of extreme event occurrence probability for data drawn from some multifractal process. We also study the heavy (power-law) tail behavior of probability density function associated with such data. We show that because of strong correlations, standard extreme value approach is not valid and classical tail exponent estimators should be interpreted cautiously. Extreme statistics associated with multifractal random processes turn out to be characterized by non self-averaging properties. Our considerations rely upon some analogy between random multiplicative cascades and the physics of disordered systems and also on recent mathematical results about the so-called multifractal formalism. Applied to financial time series, our findings allow us to propose an unified framemork that accounts for the observed multiscaling properties of return fluctuations, the volatility clustering phenomenon and the observed ``inverse cubic law'' of the return pdf tails

Stellar Dynamics and the implications on the merger evolution in NGC6240

We report near-infrared integral field spectroscopy of the luminous merging galaxy NGC 6240. Stellar velocities show that the two K-band peaks separated by 1.6arcsec are the central parts of inclined, rotating disk galaxies with equal mass bulges. The dynamical masses of the nuclei are much larger than the stellar mass derived from the K-band light, implying that the progenitor galaxies were galaxies with massive bulges. The K-band light is dominated by red supergiants formed in the two nuclei in starbursts, triggered ~2x10^7 years ago, possibly by the most recent perigalactic approach. Strong feedback effects of a superwind and supernovae are responsible for a short duration burst (~5x10^6 years) which is already decaying. The two galaxies form a prograde-retrograde rotating system and from the stellar velocity field it seems that one of the two interacting galaxies is subject to a prograde encounter. Between the stellar nuclei is a prominent peak of molecular gas (H_2, CO). The stellar velocity dispersion peaks there indicating that the gas has formed a local, self-gravitating concentration decoupled from the stellar gravitational potential. NGC 6240 has previously been reported to fit the paradigm of an elliptical galaxy formed through the merger of two galaxies. This was based on the near-infrared light distribution which follows a r^1/4-law. Our data cast strong doubt on this conclusion: the system is by far not relaxed, rotation plays an important role, as does self-gravitating gas, and the near-infrared light is dominated by young stars.Comment: 34 pages, 11 figures, using AASTEX 5.0rc3.1, paper submitted to the Astrophysical Journal, revised versio

Ultraviolet Signposts of Resonant Dynamics in the Starburst-Ringed Sab Galaxy, M94 (NGC 4736)

M94 (NGC 4736) is investigated using images from the Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (FUV-band), Hubble Space Telescope (NUV-band), Kitt Peak 0.9-m telescope (H-alpha, R, and I bands), and Palomar 5-m telescope (B-band), along with spectra from the International Ultraviolet Explorer and Lick 1-m telescopes. The wide-field UIT image shows FUV emission from (a) an elongated nucleus, (b) a diffuse inner disk, where H-alpha is observed in absorption, (c) a bright inner ring of H II regions at the perimeter of the inner disk (R = 48 arcsec. = 1.1 kpc), and (d) two 500-pc size knots of hot stars exterior to the ring on diametrically opposite sides of the nucleus (R= 130 arcsec. = 2.9 kpc). The HST/FOC image resolves the NUV emission from the nuclear region into a bright core and a faint 20 arcsec. long ``mini-bar'' at a position angle of 30 deg. Optical and IUE spectroscopy of the nucleus and diffuse inner disk indicates an approximately 10^7 or 10^8 yr-old stellar population from low-level starbirth activity blended with some LINER activity. Analysis of the H-alpha, FUV, NUV, B, R, and I-band emission along with other observed tracers of stars and gas in M94 indicates that most of the star formation is being orchestrated via ring-bar dynamics involving the nuclear mini-bar, inner ring, oval disk, and outer ring. The inner starburst ring and bi-symmetric knots at intermediate radius, in particular, argue for bar-mediated resonances as the primary drivers of evolution in M94 at the present epoch. Similar processes may be governing the evolution of the ``core-dominated'' galaxies that have been observed at high redshift. The gravitationally-lensed ``Pretzel Galaxy'' (0024+1654) at a redshift of approximately 1.5 provides an important precedent in this regard.Comment: revised figure 1 (corrected coordinate labels on declination axis); 19 pages of text + 19 figures (jpg files); accepted for publication in A

Burnout in the ICU : potential consequences for staff and patient well-being

Peer reviewedAuthor versio