Belief, Credence and Statistical Evidence

According to the Rational Threshold View, a rational agent believes p if and only if her credence in p is equal to or greater than a certain threshold. One of the most serious challenges for this view is the problem of statistical evidence: statistical evidence is often not sufficient to make an outright belief rational, no matter how probable the target proposition is given such evidence. This indicates that rational belief is not as sensitive to statistical evidence as rational credence. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we argue that, in addition to playing a decisive role in rationalizing outright belief, non-statistical evidence also plays a preponderant role in rationalizing credence. More precisely, when both types of evidence are present in a context, non-statistical evidence should receive a heavier weight than statistical evidence in determining rational credence. Second, based on this result, we argue that a modified version of the Rational Threshold View can avoid the problem of statistical evidence. We conclude by suggesting a possible explanation of the varying sensitivity to different types of evidence for belief and credence based on the respective aims of these attitudes

Surveillance strategies for Classical Swine Fever in wild boar – a comprehensive evaluation study to ensure powerful surveillance

Surveillance of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) should not only focus on livestock, but must also include wild boar. To prevent disease transmission into commercial pig herds, it is therefore vital to have knowledge about the disease status in wild boar. In the present study, we performed a comprehensive evaluation of alternative surveillance strategies for Classical Swine Fever (CSF) in wild boar and compared them with the currently implemented conventional approach. The evaluation protocol was designed using the EVA tool, a decision support tool to help in the development of an economic and epidemiological evaluation protocol for surveillance. To evaluate the effectiveness of the surveillance strategies, we investigated their sensitivity and timeliness. Acceptability was analysed and finally, the cost-effectiveness of the surveillance strategies was determined. We developed 69 surveillance strategies for comparative evaluation between the existing approach and the novel proposed strategies. Sampling only within sub-adults resulted in a better acceptability and timeliness than the currently implemented strategy. Strategies that were completely based on passive surveillance performance did not achieve the desired detection probability of 95%. In conclusion, the results of the study suggest that risk-based approaches can be an option to design more effective CSF surveillance strategies in wild boar

A Mission to Explore the Pioneer Anomaly

The Pioneer 10 and 11 spacecraft yielded the most precise navigation in deep space to date. These spacecraft had exceptional acceleration sensitivity. However, analysis of their radio-metric tracking data has consistently indicated that at heliocentric distances of $\sim 20-70$ astronomical units, the orbit determinations indicated the presence of a small, anomalous, Doppler frequency drift. The drift is a blue-shift, uniformly changing with a rate of $\sim(5.99 \pm 0.01)\times 10^{-9}$ Hz/s, which can be interpreted as a constant sunward acceleration of each particular spacecraft of $a_P = (8.74 \pm 1.33)\times 10^{-10} {\rm m/s^2}$. This signal has become known as the Pioneer anomaly. The inability to explain the anomalous behavior of the Pioneers with conventional physics has contributed to growing discussion about its origin. There is now an increasing number of proposals that attempt to explain the anomaly outside conventional physics. This progress emphasizes the need for a new experiment to explore the detected signal. Furthermore, the recent extensive efforts led to the conclusion that only a dedicated experiment could ultimately determine the nature of the found signal. We discuss the Pioneer anomaly and present the next steps towards an understanding of its origin. We specifically focus on the development of a mission to explore the Pioneer Anomaly in a dedicated experiment conducted in deep space.Comment: 8 pages, 9 figures; invited talk given at the 2005 ESLAB Symposium "Trends in Space Science and Cosmic Vision 2020", 19-21 April 2005, ESTEC, Noordwijk, The Netherland

A New Method of Generating Exact Inflationary Solutions

The mechanism of the initial inflation of the universe is based on gravitationally coupled scalar fields $\phi$. Various scenarios are distinguished by the choice of an {\it effective self--interaction potential} $U(\phi)$ which simulates a {\it temporarily} non--vanishing {\em cosmological term}. Using the Hubble expansion parameter $H$ as a new ``time" coordinate, we can formally derive the {\it general} Robertson--Walker metric for a {\em spatially flat} cosmos. Our new method provides a classification of allowed inflationary potentials and is broad enough to embody all known {\it exact} solutions involving one scalar field as special cases. Moreover, we present new inflationary and deflationary exact solutions and can easily predict the influence of the form of $U(\phi)$ on density perturbations.Comment: 32 pages, REVTeX, 9 postscript figures (or hardcopy) available upon request, Cologne-thp-1994-H

Evolution of the Scale Factor with a Variable Cosmological Term

Evolution of the scale factor a(t) in Friedmann models (those with zero pressure and a constant cosmological term Lambda) is well understood, and elegantly summarized in the review of Felten and Isaacman [Rev. Mod. Phys. 58, 689 (1986)]. Developments in particle physics and inflationary theory, however, increasingly indicate that Lambda ought to be treated as a dynamical quantity. We revisit the evolution of the scale factor with a variable Lambda-term, and also generalize the treatment to include nonzero pressure. New solutions are obtained and evaluated using a variety of observational criteria. Existing arguments for the inevitability of a big bang (ie., an initial state with a=0) are substantially weakened, and can be evaded in some cases with Lambda_0 (the present value of Lambda) well below current experimental limits.Comment: 29 pages, 12 figures (not included), LaTeX, uses Phys Rev D style files (revtex.cls, revtex.sty, aps.sty, aps10.sty, prabib.sty). To appear in Phys Rev

A Weyl-Dirac Cosmological Model with DM and DE

In the Weyl-Dirac (W-D) framework a spatially closed cosmological model is considered. It is assumed that the space-time of the universe has a chaotic Weylian microstructure but is described on a large scale by Riemannian geometry. Locally fields of the Weyl connection vector act as creators of massive bosons having spin 1. It is suggested that these bosons, called weylons, provide most of the dark matter in the universe. At the beginning the universe is a spherically symmetric geometric entity without matter. Primary matter is created by Dirac's gauge function very close to the beginning. In the early epoch, when the temperature of the universe achieves its maximum, chaotically oriented Weyl vector fields being localized in micro-cells create weylons. In the dust dominated period Dirac's gauge function is giving rise to dark energy, the latter causing the cosmic acceleration at present. This oscillatory universe has an initial radius identical to the Plank length = 1.616 exp (-33) cm, at present the cosmic scale factor is 3.21 exp (28) cm, while its maximum value is 8.54 exp (28) cm. All forms of matter are created by geometrically based functions of the W-D theory.Comment: 25 pages. Submitted to GR

Lithic technological responses to Late Pleistocene glacial cycling at Pinnacle Point Site 5-6, South Africa

There are multiple hypotheses for human responses to glacial cycling in the Late Pleistocene, including changes in population size, interconnectedness, and mobility. Lithic technological analysis informs us of human responses to environmental change because lithic assemblage characteristics are a reflection of raw material transport, reduction, and discard behaviors that depend on hunter-gatherer social and economic decisions. Pinnacle Point Site 5-6 (PP5-6), Western Cape, South Africa is an ideal locality for examining the influence of glacial cycling on early modern human behaviors because it preserves a long sequence spanning marine isotope stages (MIS) 5, 4, and 3 and is associated with robust records of paleoenvironmental change. The analysis presented here addresses the question, what, if any, lithic assemblage traits at PP5-6 represent changing behavioral responses to the MIS 5-4-3 interglacial-glacial cycle? It statistically evaluates changes in 93 traits with no a priori assumptions about which traits may significantly associate with MIS. In contrast to other studies that claim that there is little relationship between broad-scale patterns of climate change and lithic technology, we identified the following characteristics that are associated with MIS 4: increased use of quartz, increased evidence for outcrop sources of quartzite and silcrete, increased evidence for earlier stages of reduction in silcrete, evidence for increased flaking efficiency in all raw material types, and changes in tool types and function for silcrete. Based on these results, we suggest that foragers responded to MIS 4 glacial environmental conditions at PP5-6 with increased population or group sizes, 'place provisioning', longer and/or more intense site occupations, and decreased residential mobility. Several other traits, including silcrete frequency, do not exhibit an association with MIS. Backed pieces, once they appear in the PP5-6 record during MIS 4, persist through MIS 3. Changing paleoenvironments explain some, but not all temporal technological variability at PP5-6.Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada; NORAM; American-Scandinavian Foundation; Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia [SFRH/BPD/73598/2010]; IGERT [DGE 0801634]; Hyde Family Foundations; Institute of Human Origins; National Science Foundation [BCS-9912465, BCS-0130713, BCS-0524087, BCS-1138073]; John Templeton Foundation to the Institute of Human Origins at Arizona State Universit

Clustering of classical swine fever virus isolates by codon pair bias

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The genetic code consists of non-random usage of synonymous codons for the same amino acids, termed codon bias or codon usage. Codon juxtaposition is also non-random, referred to as codon context bias or codon pair bias. The codon and codon pair bias vary among different organisms, as well as with viruses. Reasons for these differences are not completely understood. For classical swine fever virus (CSFV), it was suggested that the synonymous codon usage does not significantly influence virulence, but the relationship between variations in codon pair usage and CSFV virulence is unknown. Virulence can be related to the fitness of a virus: Differences in codon pair usage influence genome translation efficiency, which may in turn relate to the fitness of a virus. Accordingly, the potential of the codon pair bias for clustering CSFV isolates into classes of different virulence was investigated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The complete genomic sequences encoding the viral polyprotein of 52 different CSFV isolates were analyzed. This included 49 sequences from the GenBank database (NCBI) and three newly sequenced genomes. The codon usage did not differ among isolates of different virulence or genotype. In contrast, a clustering of isolates based on their codon pair bias was observed, clearly discriminating highly virulent isolates and vaccine strains on one side from moderately virulent strains on the other side. However, phylogenetic trees based on the codon pair bias and on the primary nucleotide sequence resulted in a very similar genotype distribution.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Clustering of CSFV genomes based on their codon pair bias correlate with the genotype rather than with the virulence of the isolates.</p