Prediction of extreme events in the OFC model on a small world network

We investigate the predictability of extreme events in a dissipative Olami-Feder-Christensen model on a small world topology. Due to the mechanism of self-organized criticality, it is impossible to predict the magnitude of the next event knowing previous ones, if the system has an infinite size. However, by exploiting the finite size effects, we show that probabilistic predictions of the occurrence of extreme events in the next time step are possible in a finite system. In particular, the finiteness of the system unavoidably leads to repulsive temporal correlations of extreme events. The predictability of those is higher for larger magnitudes and for larger complex network sizes. Finally, we show that our prediction analysis is also robust by remarkably reducing the accessible number of events used to construct the optimal predictor.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Inference for bounded parameters

The estimation of signal frequency count in the presence of background noise has had much discussion in the recent physics literature, and Mandelkern [1] brings the central issues to the statistical community, leading in turn to extensive discussion by statisticians. The primary focus however in [1] and the accompanying discussion is on the construction of a confidence interval. We argue that the likelihood function and $p$-value function provide a comprehensive presentation of the information available from the model and the data. This is illustrated for Gaussian and Poisson models with lower bounds for the mean parameter

Statistical coverage for supersymmetric parameter estimation: a case study with direct detection of dark matter

Models of weak-scale supersymmetry offer viable dark matter (DM) candidates. Their parameter spaces are however rather large and complex, such that pinning down the actual parameter values from experimental data can depend strongly on the employed statistical framework and scanning algorithm. In frequentist parameter estimation, a central requirement for properly constructed confidence intervals is that they cover true parameter values, preferably at exactly the stated confidence level when experiments are repeated infinitely many times. Since most widely-used scanning techniques are optimised for Bayesian statistics, one needs to assess their abilities in providing correct confidence intervals in terms of the statistical coverage. Here we investigate this for the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM) when only constrained by data from direct searches for dark matter. We construct confidence intervals from one-dimensional profile likelihoods and study the coverage by generating several pseudo-experiments for a few benchmark sets of pseudo-true parameters. We use nested sampling to scan the parameter space and evaluate the coverage for the benchmarks when either flat or logarithmic priors are imposed on gaugino and scalar mass parameters. The sampling algorithm has been used in the configuration usually adopted for exploration of the Bayesian posterior. We observe both under- and over-coverage, which in some cases vary quite dramatically when benchmarks or priors are modified. We show how most of the variation can be explained as the impact of explicit priors as well as sampling effects, where the latter are indirectly imposed by physicality conditions. For comparison, we also evaluate the coverage for Bayesian credible intervals, and observe significant under-coverage in those cases.Comment: 30 pages, 5 figures; v2 includes major updates in response to referee's comments; extra scans and tables added, discussion expanded, typos corrected; matches published versio

Black Hole Spectroscopy: Testing General Relativity through Gravitational Wave Observations

Assuming that general relativity is the correct theory of gravity in the strong field limit, can gravitational wave observations distinguish between black hole and other compact object sources? Alternatively, can gravitational wave observations provide a test of one of the fundamental predictions of general relativity? Here we describe a definitive test of the hypothesis that observations of damped, sinusoidal gravitational waves originated from a black hole or, alternatively, that nature respects the general relativistic no-hair theorem. For astrophysical black holes, which have a negligible charge-to-mass ratio, the black hole quasi-normal mode spectrum is characterized entirely by the black hole mass and angular momentum and is unique to black holes. In a different theory of gravity, or if the observed radiation arises from a different source (e.g., a neutron star, strange matter or boson star), the spectrum will be inconsistent with that predicted for general relativistic black holes. We give a statistical characterization of the consistency between the noisy observation and the theoretical predictions of general relativity, together with a numerical example.Comment: 19 pages, 7 figure

A study of orientational ordering in a fluid of dipolar Gay-Berne molecules using density-functional theory

Published versio

Upper Limit on the eta to gamma gamma gamma Branching Ratio with the KLOE Detector

We have searched for the C-violating decay eta to gamma gamma gamma in a sample of ~ 18 million eta mesons produced in phi to eta gamma decays, collected with the KLOE detector at the Frascati phi-factory DAFNE. No signal is observed and we obtain the upper limit BR(eta to gamma gamma gamma) less equal than 1.6x10^(-5) at 90 % C.L.Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures Systematic study refined, some figures reordere

Structure and Magnetism of Neutral and Anionic Palladium Clusters

The properties of neutral and anionic Pd_N clusters were investigated with spin-density-functional calculations. The ground state structures are three-dimensional for N>3 and they are magnetic with a spin-triplet for 2<=N<=7 and a spin nonet for N=13 neutral clusters. Structural- and spin-isomers were determined and an anomalous increase of the magnetic moment with temperature is predicted for a Pd_7 ensemble. Vertical electron detachment and ionization energies were calculated and the former agree well with measured values for anionic Pd_N clusters.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, fig. 2 in color, accepted to Phys. Rev. Lett. (2001

The dusty AGB star RS CrB: first mid-infrared interferometric observations with the Keck Telescopes

We report interferometric observations of the semi-regular variable star RS CrB, a red giant with strong silicate emission features. The data were among the first long baseline mid-infrared stellar fringes obtained between the Keck telescopes, using parts of the new nulling beam combiner. The light was dispersed by a low-resolution spectrometer, allowing simultaneous measurement of the source visibility and intensity spectra from 8 to 12 microns. The interferometric observations allow a non-ambiguous determination of the dust shell spatial scale and relative flux contribution. Using a simple spherically-symmetric model, in which a geometrically thin shell surrounds the stellar photosphere, we find that ~30% to ~70% of the overall mid-infrared flux - depending on the wavelength - originates from 7-8 stellar radii. The derived shell opacity profile shows a broad peak around 11 microns (tau ~ 0.06), characteristic of Mg-rich silicate dust particles.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

Null hypothesis significance testing: a short tutorial

Although thoroughly criticized, null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) remains the statistical method of choice used to provide evidence for an effect, in biological, biomedical and social sciences. In this short tutorial, I first summarize the concepts behind the method, distinguishing test of significance (Fisher) and test of acceptance (Newman-Pearson) and point to common interpretation errors regarding the p-value. I then present the related concepts of confidence intervals and again point to common interpretation errors. Finally, I discuss what should be reported in which context. The goal is to clarify concepts to avoid interpretation errors and propose reporting practices.</ns4:p