Optimal analysis of in situ data in the western Mediterranean using statistics and cross-validation

To study the Mediterranean general circulation, there is a constant need for reliable interpretations of available hydrological observations. Optimal data analyses (in the probabilistic point of view of objective analysis) are fulfilled using an original finite-element technique to minimize the variational principle of the spline procedure. Anyway, a prior statistical knowledge of the problem is required to adapt the optimization criterion to the purpose of this study and to the particular features of the system. The main goal of this paper is to show how the cross-validation methodology can be used to deduce statistical estimators of this information only from the dataset. The authors also give theoretical and/or numerical evidence that modified estimators-using generalized cross-validation or sampling algorithms-are interesting in the analysis optimization process. Finally, results obtained by the application of these methods to a Mediterranean historical database and their comparison with those provided by other techniques show the usefulness and the reliability of the method

Influence of anthropogenic emissions on tropospheric ozone and its precursors over the Indian tropical region during a monsoon

An emission inventory of ozone precursors developed for the year 1991 and 2001 is used in a Chemistry-Transport Model (MOZART) to examine the tropospheric changes in ozone and its precursors that have occurred during the 1990s in the geographical region of India in response to enhanced human activities. The maximum variation in ozone concentration near the surface is found to be around 5-10 ppbv. It reaches 5-7% in the lower part of the free troposphere and 3-5% in the upper troposphere. The maximum decadal increase in CO and NOx is about 50-70 ppbv (10-18%) and 0.5-1.5 ppbv (20-50%), respectively in the boundary layer. However, in most of the troposphere, the relative magnitude reduces with height and becomes less then 5% above 10 km. The variation in some of the volatile organic compounds is found to be significant

Earth's Future: Navigating the science of the Anthropocene

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/102722/1/eft27.pd

The effect of the solar rotational irradiance variation on the middle and upper atmosphere calculated by a three-dimensional chemistry-climate model

This paper analyzes the effects of the solar rotational (27-day) irradiance variations on the chemical composition and temperature of the stratosphere, mesosphere and lower thermosphere as simulated by the three-dimensional chemistry-climate model HAMMONIA. Different methods are used to analyze the model results, including high resolution spectral and cross-spectral techniques. To force the simulations, an idealized irradiance variation with a constant period of 27 days (apparent solar rotation period) and with constant amplitude is used. While the calculated thermal and chemical responses are very distinct and permanent in the upper atmosphere, the responses in the stratosphere and mesosphere vary considerably in time despite the constant forcing. The responses produced by the model exhibit a non-linear behavior: in general, the response sensitivities (not amplitudes) decrease with increasing amplitude of the forcing. In the extratropics the responses are, in general, seasonally dependent with frequently stronger sensitivities in winter than in summer. Amplitude and phase lag of the ozone response in the tropical stratosphere and lower mesosphere are in satisfactory agreement with available observations. The agreement between the calculated and observed temperature response is generally worse than in the case of ozone

Scale disparity and spectral transfer in anisotropic numerical turbulence

To study the effect of cancellations within long-range interactions on local isotropy at the small scales, we calculate explicitly the degree of cancellation in distant interactions in the simulations of Yeung & Brasseur and Yeung, Brasseur & Wang using the single scale disparity parameter 's' developed by Zhou. In the simulations, initially isotropic simulated turbulence was subjected to coherent anisotropic forcing at the large scales and the smallest scales were found to become anisotropic as a consequence of direct large-small scale couplings. We find that the marginally distant interactions in the simulation do not cancel out under summation and that the development of small-scale anisotropy is indeed a direct consequence of the distant triadic group, as argued by Yeung, et. al. A reduction of anisotropy at later times occurs as a result of the isotropizing influences of more local energy-cascading triadic interactions. Nevertheless, the local-to-nonlocal triadic group persists as an isotropizing influence at later times. We find that, whereas long-range interactions, in general, contribute little to net energy transfer into or out of a high wavenumber shell k, the anisotropic transfer of component energy within the shell increases with increasing scale separations. These results are consistent with results by Zhou, and Brasseur & Wei, and suggest that the anisotropizing influences of long range interactions should persist to higher Reynolds numbers. The residual effect of the forced distant group in this low-Reynolds number simulation is found to be forward cascading, on average