Multi-Wavelength Modelling of the Beta Leo Debris Disc: 1, 2 or 3 planetesimal populations?

In this paper we present a model of the Beta Leo debris disc, with an emphasis on modelling the resolved PACS images obtained as part of the Herschel key programme DEBRIS. We also present new SPIRE images of the disc at 250 microns, as well as new constraints on the disc from SCUBA-2, mid-IR and scattered light imaging. Combining all available observational constraints, we find three possible models for the Beta Leo (HD102647) debris disc: (i) A 2 component model, comprised of a hot component at 2 AU and a cold component from 15-70 AU. (ii) A 3 component model with hot dust at 2 AU, warm dust at 9 AU, and a cold component from 30-70 AU, is equally valid since the cold emission is not resolved within 30 AU. (iii) A somewhat less likely possibility is that the system consists of a single very eccentric planetesimal population, with pericentres at 2 AU and apocentres at 65 AU. Thus, despite the wealth of observational constraints significant ambiguities remain; deep mid-IR and scattered light imaging of the dust distribution within 30 AU seems the most promising method to resolve the degeneracy. We discuss the implications for the possible planetary system architecture; e.g., the 2 component model suggests planets may exist at 2-15 AU, while the 3 component model suggests planets between 2-30 AU with a stable region containing the dust belt at 9 AU, and there should be no planets between 2-65 AU in the eccentric planetesimal model. We suggest that the hot dust may originate in the disintegration of comets scattered in from the cold disc, and examine all A stars known to harbour both hot and cold dust to consider the possibility that the ratio of hot and cold dust luminosities is indicative of the intervening planetary system architecture.Comment: 20 pages, 14 figures. Accepted to MNRA

Observed Reductions in Schistosoma mansoni Transmission from Large-Scale Administration of Praziquantel in Uganda: A Mathematical Modelling Study

To date schistosomiasis control programmes based on chemotherapy have largely aimed at controlling morbidity in treated individuals rather than at suppressing transmission. In this study, a mathematical modelling approach was used to estimate reductions in the rate of Schistosoma mansoni reinfection following annual mass drug administration (MDA) with praziquantel in Uganda over four years (2003-2006). In doing this we aim to elucidate the benefits of MDA in reducing community transmission.Age-structured models were fitted to a longitudinal cohort followed up across successive rounds of annual treatment for four years (Baseline: 2003, TREATMENT: 2004-2006; n = 1,764). Instead of modelling contamination, infection and immunity processes separately, these functions were combined in order to estimate a composite force of infection (FOI), i.e., the rate of parasite acquisition by hosts.MDA achieved substantial and statistically significant reductions in the FOI following one round of treatment in areas of low baseline infection intensity, and following two rounds in areas with high and medium intensities. In all areas, the FOI remained suppressed following a third round of treatment.This study represents one of the first attempts to monitor reductions in the FOI within a large-scale MDA schistosomiasis morbidity control programme in sub-Saharan Africa. The results indicate that the Schistosomiasis Control Initiative, as a model for other MDA programmes, is likely exerting a significant ancillary impact on reducing transmission within the community, and may provide health benefits to those who do not receive treatment. The results obtained will have implications for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of schistosomiasis control programmes and the design of monitoring and evaluation approaches in general

Improving statistical inference on pathogen densities estimated by quantitative molecular methods: malaria gametocytaemia as a case study

BACKGROUND: Quantitative molecular methods (QMMs) such as quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR), reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) and quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (QT-NASBA) are increasingly used to estimate pathogen density in a variety of clinical and epidemiological contexts. These methods are often classified as semi-quantitative, yet estimates of reliability or sensitivity are seldom reported. Here, a statistical framework is developed for assessing the reliability (uncertainty) of pathogen densities estimated using QMMs and the associated diagnostic sensitivity. The method is illustrated with quantification of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytaemia by QT-NASBA. RESULTS: The reliability of pathogen (e.g. gametocyte) densities, and the accompanying diagnostic sensitivity, estimated by two contrasting statistical calibration techniques, are compared; a traditional method and a mixed model Bayesian approach. The latter accounts for statistical dependence of QMM assays run under identical laboratory protocols and permits structural modelling of experimental measurements, allowing precision to vary with pathogen density. Traditional calibration cannot account for inter-assay variability arising from imperfect QMMs and generates estimates of pathogen density that have poor reliability, are variable among assays and inaccurately reflect diagnostic sensitivity. The Bayesian mixed model approach assimilates information from replica QMM assays, improving reliability and inter-assay homogeneity, providing an accurate appraisal of quantitative and diagnostic performance. CONCLUSIONS: Bayesian mixed model statistical calibration supersedes traditional techniques in the context of QMM-derived estimates of pathogen density, offering the potential to improve substantially the depth and quality of clinical and epidemiological inference for a wide variety of pathogens

Bayesian paternity analysis and mating patterns in a parasitic nematode, Trichostrongylus tenuis

Mating behaviour is a fundamental aspect of the evolutionary ecology of sexually reproducing species, but one that has been under-researched in parasitic nematodes. We analysed mating behaviour in the parasitic nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis by performing a paternity analysis in a population from a single red grouse host. Paternity of the 150 larval offspring of 25 mothers (sampled from one of the two host caeca) was assigned among 294 candidate fathers (sampled from both caeca). Each candidate father's probability of paternity of each offspring was estimated from 10-locus microsatellite genotypes. Seventy-six (51%) offspring were assigned a father with a probability of >0.8, and the estimated number of unsampled males was 136 (95% credible interval (CI) 77-219). The probability of a male from one caecum fathering an offspring in the other caecum was estimated as 0.024 (95% CI 0.003-0.077), indicating that the junction of the caeca is a strong barrier to dispersal. Levels of promiscuity (defined as the probability of two of an adult's offspring sharing only one parent) were high for both sexes. Variance in male reproductive success was moderately high, possibly because of a combination of random mating and high variance in post-copulatory reproductive success. These results provide the first data on individual mating behaviour among parasitic nematodes

Density-Dependent Mortality of the Human Host in Onchocerciasis: Relationships between Microfilarial Load and Excess Mortality

Human onchocerciasis (River Blindness) is a parasitic disease leading to visual impairment including blindness. Blindness may lead to premature death, but infection with the parasite itself (Onchocerca volvulus) may also cause excess mortality in sighted individuals. The excess risk of mortality may not be directly (linearly) proportional to the intensity of infection (a measure of how many parasites an individual harbours). We analyze cohort data from the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa, collected between 1974 and 2001, by fitting a suite of quantitative models (including a ‘null’ model of no relationship between infection intensity and mortality, a (log-) linear function, and two plateauing curves), and choosing the one that is the most statistically adequate. The risk of human mortality initially increases with parasite density but saturates at high densities (following an S-shape curve), and such risk is greater in younger individuals for a given infection intensity. Our results have important repercussions for programmes aiming to control onchocerciasis (in terms of how the benefits of the programme are calculated), for measuring the burden of disease and mortality caused by the infection, and for a better understanding of the processes that govern the density of parasite populations among human hosts

Estimation of changes in the force of infection for intestinal and urogenital schistosomiasis in countries with Schistosomiasis Control Initiative-assisted programmes

The last decade has seen an expansion of national schistosomiasis control programmes in Africa based on large-scale preventative chemotherapy. In many areas this has resulted in considerable reductions in infection and morbidity levels in treated individuals. In this paper, we quantify changes in the force of infection (FOI), defined here as the per (human) host parasite establishment rate, to ascertain the impact on transmission of some of these programmes under the umbrella of the Schistosomiasis Control Initiative (SCI)

A new WHO bottle bioassay method to assess the susceptibility of mosquito vectors to public health insecticides: results from a WHO-coordinated multi-centre study

BACKGROUND: The continued spread of insecticide resistance in mosquito vectors of malaria and arboviral diseases may lead to operational failure of insecticide-based interventions if resistance is not monitored and managed efficiently. This study aimed to develop and validate a new WHO glass bottle bioassay method as an alternative to the WHO standard insecticide tube test to monitor mosquito susceptibility to new public health insecticides with particular modes of action, physical properties or both. METHODS: A multi-centre study involving 21 laboratories worldwide generated data on the susceptibility of seven mosquito species (Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto [An. gambiae s.s.], Anopheles funestus, Anopheles stephensi, Anopheles minimus and Anopheles albimanus) to seven public health insecticides in five classes, including pyrethroids (metofluthrin, prallethrin and transfluthrin), neonicotinoids (clothianidin), pyrroles (chlorfenapyr), juvenile hormone mimics (pyriproxyfen) and butenolides (flupyradifurone), in glass bottle assays. The data were analysed using a Bayesian binomial model to determine the concentration-response curves for each insecticide-species combination and to assess the within-bioassay variability in the susceptibility endpoints, namely the concentration that kills 50% and 99% of the test population (LC50 and LC99, respectively) and the concentration that inhibits oviposition of the test population by 50% and 99% (OI50 and OI99), to measure mortality and the sterilizing effect, respectively. RESULTS: Overall, about 200,000 mosquitoes were tested with the new bottle bioassay, and LC50/LC99 or OI50/OI99 values were determined for all insecticides. Variation was seen between laboratories in estimates for some mosquito species-insecticide combinations, while other test results were consistent. The variation was generally greater with transfluthrin and flupyradifurone than with the other compounds tested, especially against Anopheles species. Overall, the mean within-bioassay variability in mortality and oviposition inhibition were < 10% for most mosquito species-insecticide combinations. CONCLUSION: Our findings, based on the largest susceptibility dataset ever produced on mosquitoes, showed that the new WHO bottle bioassay is adequate for evaluating mosquito susceptibility to new and promising public health insecticides currently deployed for vector control. The datasets presented in this study have been used recently by the WHO to establish 17 new insecticide discriminating concentrations (DCs) for either Aedes spp. or Anopheles spp. The bottle bioassay and DCs can now be widely used to monitor baseline insecticide susceptibility of wild populations of vectors of malaria and Aedes-borne diseases worldwide

Single low dose primaquine to reduce gametocyte carriage and Plasmodium falciparum transmission after artemether-lumefantrine in children with asymptomatic infection: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Background: A single low dose (0.25 mg/kg) of primaquine is recommended as a gametocytocide in combination with artemisinin-based combination therapies for Plasmodium falciparum but its effect on post-treatment gametocyte circulation and infectiousness to mosquitoes has not been quantified. Methods: In this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, 360 asymptomatic parasitaemic children aged 2-15 years were enrolled and assigned to receive: artemether-lumefantrine (AL) and a dose of placebo; AL and a 0.25 mg/kg primaquine dose; or AL and a 0.40 mg/kg primaquine dose. On days 0, 2, 3, 7, 10 and 14, gametocytes were detected and quantified by microscopy, Pfs25 mRNA quantitative nucleic acid sequence based amplification (QT-NASBA), and quantitative reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR). For a subset of participants, pre- and post-treatment infectiousness was assessed by mosquito feeding assays on days -1, 3, 7, 10 and 14. Results: Both primaquine arms had lower gametocyte prevalences after day 3 compared to the placebo arm, regardless of gametocyte detection method. The mean (95 % confidence interval) number of days to gametocyte clearance in children with patent gametocytes on day 0 (N = 150) was 19.7 (14.6 – 24.8), 7.7 (6.3 – 9.1) and 8.2 (6.7 – 9.6) for the AL-placebo, the 0.25 mg/kg primaquine dose and the 0.40 mg/kg primaquine dose arms, respectively. While 38.0 % (30/79) of selected gametocytaemic individuals were infectious before treatment, only 1/251 participant, from the AL-placebo group, infected mosquitoes after treatment. Conclusions: We observed similar gametocyte clearance rates after 0.25 and 0.40 mg/kg primaquine doses. Infectivity to mosquitoes after AL was very low and absent in primaquine arms

The motor development of orphaned children with and without HIV: Pilot exploration of foster care and residential placement

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The AIDS epidemic has lead to an increase in orphaned children who need residential care. It is known that HIV leads to delayed motor development. However, the impact of place of residence on motor function has not been investigated in the South African context. The aim of the study was therefore to establish if children in institutionalised settings performed better or worse in terms of gross motor function than their counterparts in foster care. A secondary objective was to compare the performance of children with HIV in these two settings with those of children who were HIV negative.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Forty-four children both with and without HIV, were recruited from institutions and foster care families in Cape Town. The Peabody Development Motor Scale (PDMS II) was used to calculate the total motor quotient (TMQ) at baseline and six months later. Comparisons of TMQ were made between residential settings and between children with and without HIV.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Twenty-one children were infected with HIV and were significantly delayed compared to their healthy counterparts. Antiretroviral therapy was well managed among the group but did not appear to result in restoration of TMQ to normal over the study period. HIV status and place of residence emerged as a predictor of TMQ with children in residential care performing better than their counterparts in foster care. All children showed improvement over the six months of study.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Foster parents were well supported administratively in the community by social welfare services but their children might have lacked stimulation in comparison to those in institutional settings. This could have been due to a lack of resources and knowledge regarding child development. The assumption that foster homes provide a better alternative to institutions may not be correct in a resource poor community and needs to be examined further.</p

Red Fox Vulpes vulpes (L., 1758) as a Bioindicator of Mercury Contamination in Terrestrial Ecosystems of North-Western Poland

In this study, we determined the concentrations of total mercury (Hg) in samples of liver, kidney and skeletal muscle of 27 red foxes Vulpes vulpes (L., 1758) from north-western Poland, and examined the morphometric characteristics of the collected specimens. The analysis also included the relationship between Hg concentration and the fox size, and the suitability of individual organs as bioindicators in indirect evaluation of environmental mercury contamination. Determination of Hg concentration was performed by atomic absorption spectroscopy. In the analysed samples, the Hg concentration was low and the maximum value did not exceed 0.85 mgHg/kg dry weight (dw). There were no significant differences in Hg concentrations in the analysed material between males and females or between immature and adult groups. The median concentrations of Hg in the liver, kidney and skeletal muscle were 0.22, 0.11 and 0.05 mgHg/kg dw, respectively. The correlation coefficients were significant between the concentrations of mercury in the liver, kidney and skeletal muscle (positive) and between the kidney Hg concentration and kidney mass (negative). Taking into account our results and findings of other authors, it may be argued that the red fox exhibits a measurable response to mercury environmental pollution and meets the requirements of a bioindicator