Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

International audienceOver the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directed influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past 60 years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identiy areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trands and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of Pyrenan valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessements of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions

Lake surface temperature [in “State of the Climate in 2017”]

Observed lake surface water temperature anomalies in 2017 are placed in the context of the recent warming observed in global surface air temperature by collating long-term in situ lake surface temperature observations from some of the world’s best-studied lakes and a satellite-derived global lake surface water temperature dataset. The period 1996–2015, 20 years for which satellite-derived lake temperatures are available, is used as the base period for all lake temperature anomaly calculations

Kidney growth curves in healthy children from the third trimester of pregnancy until the age of two years. The Generation R Study

Information about growth of kidney structures in early life is limited. In a population-based prospective cohort study, from foetal life onwards, we constructed reference curves for kidney growth from the third trimester of pregnancy until early childhood, using data from 1,158 healthy children. Kidney size, defined as length, width, depth and volume, was measured in the third trimester of pregnancy and at the postnatal ages of 6 months and 24 months. Analyses were based on more than 2,500 kidney measurements. In the third trimester of pregnancy and at 6 months of age all kidney measurements were larger in boys than in girls. At 24 months of age, these gender differences were only significant for left kidney structures and right kidney length. Both groups showed trends towards smaller left kidney measurements than right kidney measurements at all ages. Gender-specific reference curves based on post-conceptional and postnatal ages were constructed for left and right kidney length, width, depth and volume. We concluded that kidney size is influenced by age and gender. Left kidney size tended to be smaller than right kidney size, except for kidney length. The reference curves can be used for assessing kidney structures by ultrasound in foetal life and early childhood

An assessment of the state of conservation planning in Europe

Expanding and managing current habitat and species protection measures is at the heart of the European biodiversity strategy. A structured approach is needed to gain insights into such issues is systematic conservation planning, which uses techniques from decision theory to identify places and actions that contribute most effectively to policy objectives given a set of constraints. Yet culturally and historically determined European landscapes make the implementation of any conservation plans challenging, requiring an analysis of synergies and trade-offs before implementation. In this work, we review the scientific literature for evidence of previous conservation planning approaches, highlighting recent advances and success stories. We find that the conceptual characteristics of European conservation planning studies likely reduced their potential in contributing to better-informed decisions. We outline pathways towards improving the uptake of decision theory and multi-criteria conservation planning at various scales, particularly highlighting the need for (a) open data and intuitive tools, (b) the integration of biodiversity-focused conservation planning with multiple objectives, (c) accounting of dynamic ecological processes and functions, and (d) better facilitation of entry-points and co-design practices of conservation planning scenarios with stakeholders. By adopting and improving these practices, European conservation planning might become more actionable and adaptable towards implementable policy outcomes

Framing sustainability in a telecoupled world.

Interactions between distant places are increasingly widespread and influential, often leading to unexpected outcomes with profound implications for sustainability. Numerous sustainability studies have been conducted within a particular place with little attention to the impacts of distant interactions on sustainability in multiple places. although distant forces have been studied, they are usually treated as exogenous variables and feedbacks have rarely been considered. To understand and integrate various distant interactions better, we propose an integrated framework based on telecoupling, an umbrella concept that refers to socioeconomic and environmental interactions over distances. The concept of telecoupling is a logical extension of research on coupled human and natural systems, in which interactions occur within particular geographic locations. The telecoupling framework contains five major interrelated components, i.e., coupled human and natural systems, flows, agents, causes, and effects. We illustrate the framework using two examples of distant interactions associated with trade of agricultural commodities and invasive species, highlight the implications of the framework, and discuss research needs and approaches to move research on telecouplings forward. The framework can help to analyze system components and their interrelationships, identify research gaps, detect hidden costs and untapped benefits, provide a useful means to incorporate feedbacks as well as trade-offs and synergies across multiple systems (sending, receiving, and spillover systems), and improve the understanding of distant interactions and the effectiveness of policies for socioeconomic and environmental sustainability from local to global levels

Modelling and simulating change in reforesting mountain landscapes using a social-ecological framework

Natural reforestation of European mountain landscapes raises major environmental and societal issues. With local stakeholders in the Pyrenees National Park area (France), we studied agricultural landscape colonisation by ash (Fraxinus excelsior) to enlighten its impacts on biodiversity and other landscape functions of importance for the valley socio-economics. The study comprised an integrated assessment of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) since the 1950s, and a scenario analysis of alternative future policy. We combined knowledge and methods from landscape ecology, land change and agricultural sciences, and a set of coordinated field studies to capture interactions and feedback in the local landscape/land-use system. Our results elicited the hierarchically-nested relationships between social and ecological processes. Agricultural change played a preeminent role in the spatial and temporal patterns of LUCC. Landscape colonisation by ash at the parcel level of organisation was merely controlled by grassland management, and in fact depended on the farmer's land management at the whole-farm level. LUCC patterns at the landscape level depended to a great extent on interactions between farm household behaviours and the spatial arrangement of landholdings within the landscape mosaic. Our results stressed the need to represent the local SES function at a fine scale to adequately capture scenarios of change in landscape functions. These findings orientated our modelling choices in the building an agent-based model for LUCC simulation (SMASH - Spatialized Multi-Agent System of landscape colonization by ASH). We discuss our method and results with reference to topical issues in interdisciplinary research into the sustainability of multifunctional landscapes

Alterations in Epithelial and Mesenchymal Intestinal Gene Expression During Doxorubicin-Induced Mucositis in Mice

In the current study we aimed to gain insight into epithelial-mesenchymal cross-talk and progenitor compartment modulation during doxorubicin (DOX)-induced mucositis in mice. Intestinal segments were collected on various days after DOX treatment. DOX-induced damage at day 1–2 was characterized by increased epithelial proliferation and apoptosis and a decrease in the expression of epithelial differentiation markers. Concurrently, T-cell factor-4 (TCF4) levels increased and the epithelial differentiation enhancing factor, bone morphogenic protein-4 (BMP4), decreased. During severe damage (day 3), BMP4 levels were significantly increased, which inversely correlated with epithelial proliferation. At the same time, the expression of the epithelial differentiation markers was increasing again. At day 7, BMP4 levels were down-regulated, while the levels of the epithelial differentiation markers and TCF4 were normalized again. These data suggest that in response to DOX-induced damage, BMP4 and TCF4 are modulated in such a way that homeostasis of the progenitor compartment is partly preserved