Behaviour Change in Public Health: Evidence and Implications

Article ID 598672The evidence on the role of particular lifestyles, smoking, binge drinking, lack of physical activity, and poor health care seeking, in increased risks for mortality and morbidity is compelling [1]. Understanding the pathways through which these various “unhealthy” behaviours affect health is complicated by the broader ecological context in which they occur. The complexity is further enhanced because behaviours do not occur in isolation and there is often a convergence of associations. Interventions to achieve changes in either single or multiple behaviours have therefore often been limited in their effectiveness and longer term sustainability. In order to develop and implement a meaningful behaviour change agenda we need to establish innovative ways of operationalizing and understanding the complexity of behavioural factors and their dynamic interrelationships and how these collectively affect health. The Behaviour Change Research Cycle (BCRC) (Figure 1) provides a simple illustration of the life cycle of evidence required

Health systems performance in sub-Saharan Africa: Governance, outcome and equity

Copyright @ 2011 Olafsdottir et al.BACKGROUND: The literature on health systems focuses largely on the performance of healthcare systems operationalised around indicators such as hospital beds, maternity care and immunisation coverage. A broader definition of health systems however, needs to include the wider determinants of health including, possibly, governance and its relationship to health and health equity. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between health systems outcomes and equity, and governance as a part of a process to extend the range of indicators used to assess health systems performance. METHODS: Using cross sectional data from 46 countries in the African region of the World Health Organization, an ecological analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between governance and health systems performance. The data were analysed using multiple linear regression and a standard progressive modelling procedure. The under-five mortality rate (U5MR) was used as the health outcome measure and the ratio of U5MR in the wealthiest and poorest quintiles was used as the measure of health equity. Governance was measured using two contextually relevant indices developed by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation. RESULTS: Governance was strongly associated with U5MR and moderately associated with the U5MR quintile ratio. After controlling for possible confounding by healthcare, finance, education, and water and sanitation, governance remained significantly associated with U5MR. Governance was not, however, significantly associated with equity in U5MR outcomes. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that the quality of governance may be an important structural determinant of health systems performance, and could be an indicator to be monitored. The association suggests there might be a causal relationship. However, the cross-sectional design, the level of missing data, and the small sample size, forces tentative conclusions. Further research will be needed to assess the causal relationship, and its generalizability beyond U5MR as a health outcome measure, as well as the geographical generalizability of the results

Cybersecurity: Time Series Predictive Modeling of Vulnerabilities of Desktop Operating System Using Linear and Non-Linear Approach

Vulnerability forecasting models help us to predict the number of vulnerabilities that may occur in the future for a given Operating System (OS). There exist few models that focus on quantifying future vulnerabilities without consideration of trend, level, seasonality and non linear components of vulnerabilities. Unlike traditional ones, we propose a vulnerability analytic prediction model based on linear and non-linear approaches via time series analysis. We have developed the models based on Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) settings. The best model which provides the minimum error rate is selected for prediction of future vulnerabilities. Utilizing time series approach, this study has developed a predictive analytic model for three popular Desktop Operating Systems, namely, Windows 7, Mac OS X, and Linux Kernel by using their reported vulnerabilities on the National Vulnerability Database (NVD). Based on these reported vulnerabilities, we predict ahead their behavior so that the OS companies can make strategic and operational decisions like secure deployment of OS, facilitate backup provisioning, disaster recovery, diversity planning, maintenance scheduling, etc. Similarly, it also helps in assessing current security risks along with estimation of resources needed for handling potential security breaches and to foresee the future releases of security patches. The proposed non-linear analytic models produce very good prediction results in comparison to linear time series models

Exploring the optical properties of La 2 Hf 2 O 7 :Pr 3+ nanoparticles under UV and X-ray excitation for potential lighting and scintillating applications

New optical materials with efficient luminescence and scintillation properties have drawn a great deal of attention due to the demand for optoelectronic devices and medical theranostics. Their nanomaterials are expected to reduce the cost while incrementing the efficiency for potential lighting and scintillator applications. In this study, we have developed praseodymium-doped lanthanum hafnate (La2Hf2O7:Pr3+) pyrochlore nanoparticles (NPs) using a combined co-precipitation and relatively low-temperature molten salt synthesis procedure. XRD and Raman investigations confirmed ordered pyrochlore phase for the as-synthesized undoped and Pr3+-doped La2Hf2O7 NPs. The emission profile displayed the involvement of both the 3P0 and 1D2 states in the photoluminescence process, however, the intensity of the emission from the 1D2 states was found to be higher than that from the 3P0 states. This can have a huge implication on the design of novel red phosphors for possible application in solid-state lighting. As a function of the Pr3+ concentration, we found that the 0.1%Pr3+ doped La2Hf2O7 NPs possessed the strongest emission intensity with a quantum yield of 20.54 ± 0.1%. The concentration quenching, in this case, is mainly induced by the cross-relaxation process 3P0 + 3H4 → 1D2 + 3H6. Emission kinetics studies showed that the fast decaying species arise because of the Pr3+ ions occupying the Hf4+ sites, whereas the slow decaying species can be attributed to the Pr3+ ions occupying the La3+ sites in the pyrochlore structure of La2Hf2O7. X-ray excited luminescence (XEL) showed a strong red-light emission, which showed that the material is a promising scintillator for radiation detection. In addition, the photon counts were found to be much higher when the NPs are exposed to X-rays when compared to ultraviolet light. Altogether, these La2Hf2O7:Pr3+ NPs have great potential as a good down-conversion phosphor as well as scintillator material

The challenge of forecasting high streamflows 1–3 months in advance with lagged climate indices in southeast Australia

Skilful forecasts of high streamflows a month or more in advance are likely to be of considerable benefit to emergency services and the broader community. This is particularly true for mesoscale catchments (< 2000 km²) with little or no seasonal snowmelt, where real-time warning systems are only able to give short notice of impending floods. In this study, we generate forecasts of high streamflows for the coming 1-month and coming 3-month periods using large-scale ocean–atmosphere climate indices and catchment wetness as predictors. Forecasts are generated with a combination of Bayesian joint probability modelling and Bayesian model averaging. High streamflows are defined as maximum single-day streamflows and maximum 5-day streamflows that occur during each 1-month or 3-month forecast period. Skill is clearly evident in the 1-month forecasts of high streamflows. Surprisingly, in several catchments positive skill is also evident in forecasts of large threshold events (exceedance probabilities of 25%) over the next month. Little skill is evident in forecasts of high streamflows for the 3-month period. We show that including lagged climate indices as predictors adds little skill to the forecasts, and thus catchment wetness is by far the most important predictor. Accordingly, we recommend that forecasts may be improved by using accurate estimates of catchment wetness

Impact of climate change on rice production: an empirical study in Kaski and Nawalparasi, Nepal

This study explores the relationship between climate variables to rice production in Kaski and Nawalparasi district of Nepal. The study was conducted in the year 2016. This study captured the time series data ranging from 1995 to 2014 on rice production, temperature and rainfall of two different districts and analyzed through panel data regression. Regarding primary data collection, a total of 120 sampled households were surveyed by using simple random sampling to understand the perception of farmers to change in climatic parameters using a semi-structured pre-tested questionnaire and Focus Group Discussions. The secondary information was collected from the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology and Centre Bureau of Statistics. The regression model revealed that seasonal rainfall had a linear relation on rice production (p&lt;0.05). Respondents from both districts perceived that temperature, rainfall and hailstone had increased or varied than before. The major problems faced by the farmers of the study area due to climate change were prioritized as drought, flood hailstone, extreme hot and extreme cold. This necessitates the promotion and use of climate-smart technologies for better rice adaptation to climate change

Structural insights into the repair mechanism of AGT for methyl-induced DNA damage

Methylation induced DNA base-pairing damage is one of the major causes of cancer. O6-alkylguanine-DNA alkyltransferase (AGT) is considered a demethylation agent of the methylated DNA. Structural investigations with thermodynamic properties of the AGT-DNA complex are still lacking. In this report, we modeled two catalytic states of AGT-DNA interactions and an AGT-DNA covalent complex and explored structural features using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. We utilized the umbrella sampling method to investigate the changes in the free energy of the interactions in two different AGT-DNA catalytic states, one with methylated GUA in DNA and the other with methylated CYS145 in AGT. These non-covalent complexes represent the pre- A nd post-repair complexes. Therefore, our study encompasses the process of recognition, complex formation, and separation of the AGT and the damaged (methylated) DNA base. We believe that the use of parameters for the amino acid and nucleotide modifications and for the protein-DNA covalent bond will allow investigations of the DNA repair mechanism as well as the exploration of cancer therapeutics targeting the AGT-DNA complexes at various functional states as well as explorations via stabilization of the complex

PCR Based Genotyping of Lulu Cattle of Nepal for A1, A2 Type Beta-caseins

Lulu is an indigenous breed of cattle (Bos taurus) found in high altitude regions of western Nepal. Population of Lulu cattle has been declining due to introgression with other exotic breeds to increase milk productivity. Here we aimed at finding potential approach for conserving Lulu cattle and its assets by studying the milk contents and investigating which variant of beta-casein protein is present in this breed. Beta caseins are an abundant protein in cow milk with A1 and A2 being the most common genetic variants of this protein. Consumption of A1 type of milk has numerous health-related complications whereas A2 type of milk has numerous human health promoting factors. We used restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) for determining the A1 and A2 variant of beta casein in Lulu cattle. For performing DNA extraction, we collected (n = 18) blood samples of Lulu from Mustang and (n=17) Nepal Agriculture research council farm. The amplified fragments in 3% agarose at 251bp and 213bp respectively confirmed the presence of both A1 and A2 gene in Lulu; however, A2 was of greater abundance. Our study indicated that Lulu has A2 variant of beta-casein predominantly. The gene frequency of A1A1 is 0, A1A2 is 0.06 and A2A2 is 0.94. We further found that the allele frequency of A1 and A2 is 0.03 and 0.97 respectively. We designed special primer for sequencing CSN2 genes since A2 type beta casein gene was predominantly seen on Lulu. The sequencing result further supports our RFLP result as most of our samples have “C” nucleotide SNP in amplified CSN2 gene sequence. The Chi-square value of the current study is 0.04 which supports Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium inferring that Lulu cattle are still in the pure state, where there is no genetic introgression with the exotic breed for the sake of improvement of productivity

Downstream rounding rate of pebbles in the Himalaya

Sediment grains are progressively rounded during their transport down a river. For more than a century, Earth scientists have used the roundness of pebbles within modern sediment, and of clasts within conglomerates, as a key metric to constrain the sediment's transport history and source area(s). However, the current practices of assessment of pebble roundness are mainly qualitative and based on time-consuming manual measurement methods. This qualitative judgement provides the transport history only in a broad sense, such as classifying distance as “near” or “far”. In this study, we propose a new model that quantifies the relationship between roundness and the transport distance. We demonstrate that this model can be applied to the clasts of multiple lithologies including modern sediment, as well as conglomerates, deposited by ancient river systems. We present field data from two Himalayan catchments in Nepal. We use the normalized isoperimetric ratio (IRn), which relates a pebble's area (A) to its perimeter (P), to quantify roundness. The maximum analytical value for IRn is 1, and IRn is expected to increase with transport distance. We propose a non-linear roundness model based on our field data, whereby the difference between a grain's IRn and the maximum value of 1 decays exponentially with transport distance, mirroring Sternberg's model of mass loss or size reduction by abrasion. This roundness model predicts an asymptotic behaviour for IRn, and the distance over which IRn approaches the asymptote is controlled by a rounding coefficient. Our field data suggest that the roundness coefficient for granite pebbles is 9 times that of quartzite pebbles. Using this model, we reconstruct the transport history of a Pliocene paleo-river deposit preserved at the base of the Kathmandu intermontane basin. These results, along with other sedimentary evidence, imply that the paleo-river was much longer than the length of the Kathmandu Basin and that it must have lost its headwaters through drainage capture. We further explore the extreme rounding of clasts from Miocene conglomerate of the Siwalik zone and find evidence of sediment recycling.</p

Prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors among chronic kidney disease patients undergoing hemodialysis in a tertiary care center, Kathmandu, Nepal

The risk of cardiovascular disease is higher in chronic kidney disease patients compared to the general population and its impact is higher in developing countries compared to the developed countries. With this background in mind, we aimed to evaluate the prevalence of different cardiovascular risk factors in patients on maintenance hemodialysis in a tertiary care center. Chronic kidney disease patients aged 18 years and above who were under maintenance hemodialysis in the hemodialysis unit of Nepal Medical College were included in the study. Pre-dialysis venous blood samples from the participants were collected and analyzed for serum calcium, phosphorus, total protein, albumin and hemoglobin. Calcium phosphate product was calculated. Out of 100 study participants, 52% were male and 48% were female. Age-wise distribution showed 38% of the participants were below 40 years. The mean age of the participants was 45.86 ± 14.4 years. Ninety-three percent had hypertension and 29% had diabetes mellitus. Hypocalcemia was present in 80%, hyperphosphatemia was seen among 81% and high calcium phosphate product was present in 33% of the participants. Low hemoglobin (&lt; 10gm/dL) was found in 86%. The cardiovascular risk trend in the Nepalese chronic kidney disease population is fairly different compared to the western population. Participants were younger. Prevalence of hypertension and diabetes was high. The high prevalence of anemia might be due to unaffordability of the participants for regular erythropoietin therapy. Inadequately managed hyperphosphatemia despite the widespread use of phosphorus binders, is still a major clinical challenge in patients on hemodialysis