Statistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changes

The warming of the climate system is unequivocal as evidenced by an increase in global temperatures by 0.8 °C over the past century. However, the attribution of the observed warming to human activities remains less clear, particularly because of the apparent slow-down in warming since the late 1990s. Here we analyse radiative forcing and temperature time series with state-of-the-art statistical methods to address this question without climate model simulations. We show that long-term trends in total radiative forcing and temperatures have largely been determined by atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and modulated by other radiative factors. We identify a pronounced increase in the growth rates of both temperatures and radiative forcing around 1960, which marks the onset of sustained global warming. Our analyses also reveal a contribution of human interventions to two periods when global warming slowed down. Our statistical analysis suggests that the reduction in the emissions of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol, as well as a reduction in methane emissions, contributed to the lower rate of warming since the 1990s. Furthermore, we identify a contribution from the two world wars and the Great Depression to the documented cooling in the mid-twentieth century, through lower carbon dioxide emissions. We conclude that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are effective in slowing the rate of warming in the short term.F.E. acknowledges financial support from the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (http://www.conacyt.gob.mx) under grant CONACYT-310026, as well as from PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. (CONACYT-310026 - Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia; PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico

G-300: The first French Getaway Special microgravity measurements of fluid thermal conductivity

Thermal conductivity measurements on liquids are difficult to perform on Earth because of thermal motions due to convection. In microgravity, the convection due to buoyancy is evanescent, and a strong reduction of Rayleigh and Nusselt numbers can be expected. Three low viscosity liquids are selected to carry out the measurements; distilled water (standard) and two silicone oils. A modified hot plate method with a simplified guard ring is used; the reduction of convective motions permitted the use in the experimental cells of larger interplate distances and/or temperature differences than in Earth measurements, improving the accuracy. Comparisons between Earth and orbit results may help to understand the convection occurrence in the cells. Thermal, vibrational, and EMI tests have proved that the design satisfies the NASA requirements

Changing perspectives on marijuana use during early adolescence and young adulthood: Evidence from a panel of cross-sectional surveys

Introduction. Prior research has often overlooked potential cohort differences in marijuana views and use across adolescence and young adulthood. To begin to address this gap, we conduct an exploratory examination of marijuana views and use among American youth using a panel of cross-sectional surveys. Method. Findings are based on repeated, cross-sectional data collected annually from adolescents (ages 12-17; n = 230,452) and young adults (ages 18-21; n = 120,588) surveyed as part of the National Survey on Drug Use and Health between 2002 and 2014. For each of the birth years between 1986 and 1996, we combined a series of nationally representative cross-sections to provide multi-year data strings designed to approximate nationally representative cohorts. Results. Compared to youth born in the mid-to-late 1980s, youth born in the mid-1990s reported significantly higher levels of marijuana disapproval during the early adolescent years (Age 14: 1988 = 64.7%, 1994 = 70.4%) but lower levels of disapproval during the young adult years (Age 19: 1988 = 32.0%, 1994 = 25.0%; Age 20: 1988 = 27.9%, 1994 = 19.7%). Moreover, the prevalence of marijuana use among youth born in 1994 was significantly lower—compared to youth born in 1988—at age 14 (1988: 11.39%, 1994: 8.19%) and significantly higher at age 18 (1988: 29.67%, 1994: 34.83%). This pattern held even when adjusting for potential confounding by demographic changes in the population across the study period. Conclusions. We see evidence of changes in the perceptions of marijuana use among youth born during the late twentieth century.2018-01-0

Generalized nonuniform dichotomies and local stable manifolds

We establish the existence of local stable manifolds for semiflows generated by nonlinear perturbations of nonautonomous ordinary linear differential equations in Banach spaces, assuming the existence of a general type of nonuniform dichotomy for the evolution operator that contains the nonuniform exponential and polynomial dichotomies as a very particular case. The family of dichotomies considered allow situations for which the classical Lyapunov exponents are zero. Additionally, we give new examples of application of our stable manifold theorem and study the behavior of the dynamics under perturbations.Comment: 18 pages. New version with minor corrections and an additional theorem and an additional exampl

Velocity shear and current driven instability in a collisional F-region

We have studied how the presence of collisions affects the behavior of instabilities triggered by a combination of shears and parallel currents in the ionosphere under a variety of ion to electron temperature ratios. To this goal we have numerically solved a kinetic dispersion relation, using a relaxation model to describe the effects of ion and electron collisions. We have compared our solutions to expressions derived in a fluid limit which applied only to large electron to ion temperature ratios. We have limited our study to threshold conditions for the current density and the shears. We have studied how the threshold varies as a function of the wave-vector angle direction and as a function of frequency. As expected, we have found that for low frequencies and/or elevated ion to electron temperature ratios, the kinetic dispersion relation has to be used to evaluate the threshold conditions. We have also found that ion velocity shears can significantly lower the field-aligned threshold current needed to trigger the instability, especially for wave-vectors close to the perpendicular to the magnetic field. However the current density and shear requirements remain significantly higher than if collisions are neglected. Therefore, for ionospheric F-region applications, the effect of collisions should be included in the calculation of instabilities associated with horizontal shears in the vertical flow. Furthermore, in many situations of interest the kinetic solutions should be used instead of the fluid limit, in spite of the fact that the latter can be shown to produce qualitatively valid solutions

Understanding the Recent Growth in Consumer Loans and Credit Cards in Emerging Markets:Evidence from Turkey

In recent years, the surge in household indebtedness to historical heights has become a significant concern for developed economies. A similar trend has been witnessed in emerging market countries including Turkey. Our objective is to help further understand the dynamics of the recent growth in consumer loans and credit cards (CLCC) in Turkey. For this purpose, we investigate the long-term equilibrating relationships and short-term deviations from the equilibrium, and explore the determinants, directions, and strengths of causality relationships between CLCC and the selected macroeconomic variables, and analyze the dynamic interactions among the variables in the post-sample period by analyzing how CLCC responds to the shocks given to other macroeconomic variables and the contribution of each variable on the forecast variability of CLCC. We use monthly data for the period of January 2004—December 2013 of seven macroeconomic variables of money supply, interest rate, income, consumer confidence, inflation, stock market, and consumer goods imports. On empirical findings, we make suggestions about which policy tools should be used to influence, and if necessary to manage, the growth in CLCC. Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

Actions of the braid group, and new algebraic proofs of results of Dehornoy and Larue

This article surveys many standard results about the braid group with emphasis on simplifying the usual algebraic proofs. We use van der Waerden's trick to illuminate the Artin-Magnus proof of the classic presentation of the algebraic mapping-class group of a punctured disc. We give a simple, new proof of the Dehornoy-Larue braid-group trichotomy, and, hence, recover the Dehornoy right-ordering of the braid group. We then turn to the Birman-Hilden theorem concerning braid-group actions on free products of cyclic groups, and the consequences derived by Perron-Vannier, and the connections with the Wada representations. We recall the very simple Crisp-Paris proof of the Birman-Hilden theorem that uses the Larue-Shpilrain technique. Studying ends of free groups permits a deeper understanding of the braid group; this gives us a generalization of the Birman-Hilden theorem. Studying Jordan curves in the punctured disc permits a still deeper understanding of the braid group; this gave Larue, in his PhD thesis, correspondingly deeper results, and, in an appendix, we recall the essence of Larue's thesis, giving simpler combinatorial proofs.Comment: 51`pages, 13 figure

Functional Characterization of Bacteria Isolated from Ancient Arctic Soil Exposes Diverse Resistance Mechanisms to Modern Antibiotics

Using functional metagenomics to study the resistomes of bacterial communities isolated from different layers of the Canadian high Arctic permafrost, we show that microbial communities harbored diverse resistance mechanisms at least 5,000 years ago. Among bacteria sampled from the ancient layers of a permafrost core, we isolated eight genes conferring clinical levels of resistance against aminoglycoside, $\beta$-lactam and tetracycline antibiotics that are naturally produced by microorganisms. Among these resistance genes, four also conferred resistance against amikacin, a modern semi-synthetic antibiotic that does not naturally occur in microorganisms. In bacteria sampled from the overlaying active layer, we isolated ten different genes conferring resistance to all six antibiotics tested in this study, including aminoglycoside, $\beta$-lactam and tetracycline variants that are naturally produced by microorganisms as well as semi-synthetic variants produced in the laboratory. On average, we found that resistance genes found in permafrost bacteria conferred lower levels of resistance against clinically relevant antibiotics than resistance genes sampled from the active layer. Our results demonstrate that antibiotic resistance genes were functionally diverse prior to the anthropogenic use of antibiotics, contributing to the evolution of natural reservoirs of resistance genes.Organismic and Evolutionary Biolog

Biomedical Ph.D. Students Enrolled in Two Elite Universities in the United Kingdom and the United States Report Adopting Multiple Learning Relationships

Objective: The ability to form multiple learning relationships is a key element of the doctoral learning environment in the biomedical sciences. Of these relationships, that between student and supervisor has long been viewed as key. There are, however, limited data to describe the student perspective on what makes this relationship valuable. In the present study, we discuss the findings of semi-structured interviews with biomedical Ph.D. students from the United Kingdom and the United States to: i) determine if the learning relationships identified in an Australian biomedical Ph.D. cohort are also important in a larger international student cohort; and ii) improve our understanding of student perceptions of value in their supervisory relationships. Study Design 32 students from two research intensive universities, one in the United Kingdom (n = 17), and one in the United States (n = 15) were recruited to participate in a semi-structured interview. Verbatim transcripts were transcribed, validated and analysed using a Miles and Huberman method for thematic analysis. Results: Students reported that relationships with other Ph.D. students, post-doctoral scientists and supervisors were all essential to their learning. Effective supervisory relationships were perceived as the primary source of high-level project guidance, intellectual support and confidence. Relationships with fellow students were viewed as essential for the provision of empathetic emotional support. Technical learning was facilitated, almost exclusively, by relationships with postdoctoral staff. Conclusions: These data make two important contributions to the scholarship of doctoral education in the biomedical sciences. Firstly, they provide further evidence for the importance of multiple learning relationships in the biomedical doctorate. Secondly, they clarify the form of a ‘valued’ supervisory relationship from a student perspective. We conclude that biomedical doctoral programs should be designed to contain a minimum level of formalised structure to promote the development of multiple learning relationships that are perceived as key to student learning