Climbing the technology ladder too fast? : an international comparison of productivity in South and East-Asian manufacturing, 1963-1993

This paper provides a star comparison of manufacturing productivity levels in China, India, Indonesia, South Korea and Taiwan with the US as the reference country for the period 1963-1993. South Korea and Taiwan showed prolonged catch up in labour productivity with the US, whereas the other countries had long periods of relative stagnation. This is reflected in relative performance of seven detailed manufacturing branches. Physical capital per hour worked in the Asian countries is still well below the US level and there are abundant opportunities for further capital intensification. Relative total factor productivity levels in South-Korean and Taiwanese manufacturing are much lower than in the US in all manufacturing branches. The same is true for India and Indonesia compared to South Korea and Taiwan. Hence, late industrializers do not automatically benefit from the increasing global pool of technologies.

Forecasting S&P 500 Daily Volatility using a Proxy for Downward Price Pressure

This paper decomposes volatility proxies according to upward and downward price movements in high-frequency financial data, and uses this decomposition for forecasting volatility. The paper introduces a simple Garch-type discrete time model that incorporates such high-frequency based statistics into a forecast equation for daily volatility. Analysis of S&P 500 index tick data over the years 1988-2006 shows that taking into account the downward movements improves forecast accuracy significantly. The R2 statistic for evaluating daily volatility forecasts attains a value of 0.80, both for in-sample and out-of-sample prediction.volatility proxy; downward absolute power variation; log-Garch; volatility asymmetry; leverage effect; SP500; volatility forecasting; high-frequency data

Contrasting Working-Land and Land Retirement Programs

A multitude of design decisions influence the performance of voluntary conservation programs. This Economic Brief is one of a set of five exploring the implications of decisions policymakers and program managers must make about who is eligible to receive payments, how much can be received, for what action, and the means by which applicants are selected. In particular, this Brief focuses on potential tradeoffs in balancing land retirement with conservation on working lands.Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use,

Climbing the Technology Ladder Too Fast? An International Comparison of Productivity in South and East- Asian Manufacturing, 1963-1993

productivity levels; South & East Asia

Garch Parameter Estimation Using High-Frequency Data

Estimation of the parameters of Garch models for financial data is typically based on daily close-to-close returns. This paper shows that the efficiency of the parameter estimators may be greatly improved by using volatility proxies based on intraday data. The paper develops a Garch quasi maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) based on these proxies. Examples of such proxies are the realized volatility and the intraday high-low range. Empirical analysis of the S&P 500 index tick data shows that the use of a suitable proxy may reduce the variances of the estimators of the Garch autoregression parameters by a factor 20.volatility estimation; quasi maximum likelihood; volatility proxy; Gaussian QMLE; log-Gaussian QMLE; autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity

The contributions of matter inside and outside of haloes to the matter power spectrum

Halo-based models have been successful in predicting the clustering of matter. However, the validity of the postulate that the clustering is fully determined by matter inside haloes remains largely untested, and it is not clear a priori whether non-virialised matter might contribute significantly to the non-linear clustering signal. Here, we investigate the contribution of haloes to the matter power spectrum as a function of both scale and halo mass by combining a set of cosmological N-body simulations to calculate the contributions of different spherical overdensity regions, Friends-of-Friends (FoF) groups and matter outside haloes to the power spectrum. We find that matter inside spherical overdensity regions of size R200,mean cannot account for all power for 1<k<100 h/Mpc, regardless of the minimum halo mass. At most, it accounts for 95% of the power (k>20 h/Mpc). For 2<k<10 h/Mpc, haloes with mass M200,mean<10^11 Msun/h contribute negligibly to the power spectrum, and our results appear to be converged with decreasing halo mass. When haloes are taken to be regions of size R200,crit, the amount of power unaccounted for is larger on all scales. Accounting also for matter inside FoF groups but outside R200,mean increases the contribution of halo matter on most scales probed here by 5-15%. Matter inside FoF groups with M200,mean>10^9 Msun/h accounts for essentially all power for 3<k<100 h/Mpc. We therefore expect halo models that ignore the contribution of matter outside R200,mean to overestimate the contribution of haloes of any mass to the power on small scales (k>1 h/Mpc).Comment: 13 pages, 9 figures. Replaced to match the version accepted by MNRA

A cross-correlation-based estimate of the galaxy luminosity function

We extend existing methods for using cross-correlations to derive redshift distributions for photometric galaxies, without using photometric redshifts. The model presented in this paper simultaneously yields highly accurate and unbiased redshift distributions and, for the first time, redshift-dependent luminosity functions, using only clustering information and the apparent magnitudes of the galaxies as input. In contrast to many existing techniques for recovering unbiased redshift distributions, the output of our method is not degenerate with the galaxy bias b(z), which is achieved by modelling the shape of the luminosity bias. We successfully apply our method to a mock galaxy survey and discuss improvements to be made before applying our model to real data.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures. Replaced to match the version accepted by MNRA

Weak Dynamic Programming for Generalized State Constraints

We provide a dynamic programming principle for stochastic optimal control problems with expectation constraints. A weak formulation, using test functions and a probabilistic relaxation of the constraint, avoids restrictions related to a measurable selection but still implies the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation in the viscosity sense. We treat open state constraints as a special case of expectation constraints and prove a comparison theorem to obtain the equation for closed state constraints.Comment: 36 pages;forthcoming in 'SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization

Productivity differentials in the U.S. and EU distributive trade sector: statistical myth or reality

In this paper we asses whether productivity growth differentials between the U.S. and Europe in the distributive trade sector are real or mainly a statistical myth. New estimates of retail trade productivity are constructed, taking into account purchase prices of goods sold. We also adjust U.S. wholesale productivity growth for the upward bias due to the use of constant-quality prices of ICT-goods sales. We find that multifactor productivity growth in the U.S. has been higher than in Europe after 1995, but that this lead is smaller than suggested by national accounts based estimates. This finding is robust for various productivity measurement models.