Assessing the probability of patients reoffending after discharge from low to medium secure forensic mental health services: An inductive prevention paradox

Citizens of developed societies are troubled by those who commit ‘irrational' crimes against the person. Reoffending by ex-patients following their release from secure mental health services triggers particularly intense angst when amplified by media and political scrutiny. Forensic mental health service providers are expected to minimise the occurrence of such transgressions by releasing only those patients who are judged acceptably unlikely to reoffend. However, reoffending probabilities can only be estimated by observing behaviour in secure institutional settings designed specifically to prevent patients from transgressing. The article explores this ‘inductive prevention paradox' which arises when the implementation of measures designed to avoid an adverse event obscures direct observation of what might have happened if prophylaxis had not been attempted. The analysis presented draws on data obtained in 1999–2003 from two qualitative studies in medium to low secure UK institutions, one providing forensic mental health services and the other forensic learning disability services. We explored the views of 56 staff members and 21 patients about risk management in forensic services and undertook additional 25 staff interviews for case studies of the 21 patients. The wider applicability of the inductive prevention paradox will be considered in the Discussion. We argue that the prognostic limitations arising from prevention have been underestimated by policy makers and in official inquiries; and that the prevailing personal risk assessment framework needs to be complemented by greater attention to the environments which patients will be discharged into

On a scale of one to five, how satisfied are you with the forensic mental health care services you received?

This book chapter is the latest of several outputs from a Department of Health funded project (£43,000) begun in 2006. At this year’s prestigious annual BSA conference (April 2011), we (Godin & Davies) will present ‘An exercise in emancipatory research’ in a symposium of mental health research. We have been invited to present our work from this project at the BSA London Medical Sociology Group. In May 2011 we will present ‘Developing a cultural understanding of inpatient risk management’. In December 2010 we presented the study at a seminar in Huddersfield University by invitation from the professor of health care risk management

Distributed Formal Concept Analysis Algorithms Based on an Iterative MapReduce Framework

While many existing formal concept analysis algorithms are efficient, they are typically unsuitable for distributed implementation. Taking the MapReduce (MR) framework as our inspiration we introduce a distributed approach for performing formal concept mining. Our method has its novelty in that we use a light-weight MapReduce runtime called Twister which is better suited to iterative algorithms than recent distributed approaches. First, we describe the theoretical foundations underpinning our distributed formal concept analysis approach. Second, we provide a representative exemplar of how a classic centralized algorithm can be implemented in a distributed fashion using our methodology: we modify Ganter's classic algorithm by introducing a family of MR* algorithms, namely MRGanter and MRGanter+ where the prefix denotes the algorithm's lineage. To evaluate the factors that impact distributed algorithm performance, we compare our MR* algorithms with the state-of-the-art. Experiments conducted on real datasets demonstrate that MRGanter+ is efficient, scalable and an appealing algorithm for distributed problems.Comment: 17 pages, ICFCA 201, Formal Concept Analysis 201

Electrostatic Patch Effect in Cylindrical Geometry. I. Potential and Energy between Slightly Non-Coaxial Cylinders

We study the effect of any uneven voltage distribution on two close cylindrical conductors with parallel axes that are slightly shifted in the radial and by any length in the axial direction. The investigation is especially motivated by certain precision measurements, such as the Satellite Test of the Equivalence Principle (STEP). By energy conservation, the force can be found as the energy gradient in the vector of the shift, which requires determining potential distribution and energy in the gap. The boundary value problem for the potential is solved, and energy is thus found to the second order in the small transverse shift, and to lowest order in the gap to cylinder radius ratio. The energy consists of three parts: the usual capacitor part due to the uniform potential difference, the one coming from the interaction between the voltage patches and the uniform voltage difference, and the energy of patch interaction, entirely independent of the uniform voltage. Patch effect forces and torques in the cylindrical configuration are derived and analyzed in the next two parts of this work.Comment: 26 pages, 1 Figure. Submitted to Classical and Quantum Gravit

An Incremental Learning Method to Support the Annotation of Workflows with Data-to-Data Relations

Workflow formalisations are often focused on the representation of a process with the primary objective to support execution. However, there are scenarios where what needs to be represented is the effect of the process on the data artefacts involved, for example when reasoning over the corresponding data policies. This can be achieved by annotating the workflow with the semantic relations that occur between these data artefacts. However, manually producing such annotations is difficult and time consuming. In this paper we introduce a method based on recommendations to support users in this task. Our approach is centred on an incremental rule association mining technique that allows to compensate the cold start problem due to the lack of a training set of annotated workflows. We discuss the implementation of a tool relying on this approach and how its application on an existing repository of workflows effectively enable the generation of such annotations

Effect of heuristics on serendipity in path-based storytelling with linked data

Path-based storytelling with Linked Data on the Web provides users the ability to discover concepts in an entertaining and educational way. Given a query context, many state-of-the-art pathfinding approaches aim at telling a story that coincides with the user's expectations by investigating paths over Linked Data on the Web. By taking into account serendipity in storytelling, we aim at improving and tailoring existing approaches towards better fitting user expectations so that users are able to discover interesting knowledge without feeling unsure or even lost in the story facts. To this end, we propose to optimize the link estimation between - and the selection of facts in a story by increasing the consistency and relevancy of links between facts through additional domain delineation and refinement steps. In order to address multiple aspects of serendipity, we propose and investigate combinations of weights and heuristics in paths forming the essential building blocks for each story. Our experimental findings with stories based on DBpedia indicate the improvements when applying the optimized algorithm

Systemic analysis of production scenarios for bioethanol produced from ligno-cellulosic biomass [abstract]

Defining alternatives for non-renewable energy sources constitutes a priority to the development of our societies. One of these alternatives is biofuels production starting from energy crops, agricultural wastes, forest products or wastes. In this context, a "second generation" biofuels production, aiming at utilizing the whole plant, including ligno-cellulosic (hemicelluloses, cellulose, lignin) fractions (Ogier et al., 1999) that are not used for human food, would allow the reduction of the drawbacks of bioethanol production (Schoeling, 2007). However, numerous technical, economical, ethical and environmental questions are still pending. One of the aims of the BioEtha2 project, directed by the Walloon Agricultural Research Centre, is to define the position of bioethanol produced from ligno-cellulosic biomass among the different renewable energy alternatives that could be developed in Wallonia towards 2020. With this aim, and in order to answer the numerous questions in this field, the project aims at using tools and methods coming from the concept of "forecasting scenarios" (Sebillotte, 2002; Slegten et al., 2007; For-learn, 2008). This concept, based on a contemporary reality, aims to explore different possible scenarios for the future development of alternative sources of energy production. The principle is to evaluate, explore, possible futures of the studied problematic, through the establishment of possible evolution trajectories. We contribute to this prospective through a systemic approach (Vanloqueren, 2007) that allows lightening the existing interactions within the system "ligno-cellulosic biomass chain" without isolating it from its environment. We explain and sketch the two contexts needed to identify primary stakes. The global context includes inter-dependant and auto-regulating fields such as society, politics, technology and economy. These four fields influence each part of the "chain" with specific tools. However, the interest and possible action fields lay within the intermediary context representing the "resources" such as agriculture, forestry, "driving" elements such as mobility, mediation elements such as territories and environment and concurrent elements such as non-cellulosic biomass, the energy mix and the non-energy valorization

Fermat Principle in Finsler Spacetimes

It is shown that, on a manifold with a Finsler metric of Lorentzian signature, the lightlike geodesics satisfy the following variational principle. Among all lightlike curves from a point (emission event) to a timelike curve (worldline of receiver), the lightlike geodesics make the arrival time stationary. Here ``arrival time'' refers to a parametrization of the timelike curve. This variational principle can be applied (i) to the vacuum light rays in an alternative spacetime theory, based on Finsler geometry, and (ii) to light rays in an anisotropic non-dispersive medium with a general-relativistic spacetime as background.Comment: 18 pages, submitted to Gen. Rel. Gra

Generic properties in some classes of automaton groups

We prove, for various important classes of Mealy automata, that almost all generated groups have an element of infinite order. In certain cases, it also implies other results such as exponential growth