Tunneling-percolation origin of nonuniversality: theory and experiments

A vast class of disordered conducting-insulating compounds close to the percolation threshold is characterized by nonuniversal values of transport critical exponent t, in disagreement with the standard theory of percolation which predicts t = 2.0 for all three dimensional systems. Various models have been proposed in order to explain the origin of such universality breakdown. Among them, the tunneling-percolation model calls into play tunneling processes between conducting particles which, under some general circumstances, could lead to transport exponents dependent of the mean tunneling distance a. The validity of such theory could be tested by changing the parameter a by means of an applied mechanical strain. We have applied this idea to universal and nonuniversal RuO2-glass composites. We show that when t > 2 the measured piezoresistive response \Gamma, i. e., the relative change of resistivity under applied strain, diverges logarithmically at the percolation threshold, while for t = 2, \Gamma does not show an appreciable dependence upon the RuO2 volume fraction. These results are consistent with a mean tunneling dependence of the nonuniversal transport exponent as predicted by the tunneling-percolation model. The experimental results are compared with analytical and numerical calculations on a random-resistor network model of tunneling-percolation.Comment: 13 pages, 12 figure

Second waves, social distancing, and the spread of COVID-19 across the USA [version 2; peer review: 2 approved with reservations]

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several instantiations of this (epidemic) model to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new cases that may result from loss of immunity—and the exchange of people between regions—and how mortality rates can be ameliorated under different strategic responses. In particular, we consider hard or soft social distancing strategies predicated on national (Federal) or regional (State) estimates of the prevalence of infection in the population. The modelling is demonstrated using timeseries of new cases and deaths from the United States to estimate the parameters of a factorial (compartmental) epidemiological model of each State and, crucially, coupling between States. Using Bayesian model reduction, we identify the effective connectivity between States that best explains the initial phases of the outbreak in the United States. Using the ensuing posterior parameter estimates, we then evaluate the likely outcomes of different policies in terms of mortality, working days lost due to lockdown and demands upon critical care. The provisional results of this modelling suggest that social distancing and loss of immunity are the two key factors that underwrite a return to endemic equilibrium

Second waves, social distancing, and the spread of COVID-19 across the USA [version 3; peer review: 1 approved, 1 approved with reservations]

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several instantiations of this (epidemic) model to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new cases that may result from loss of immunity—and the exchange of people between regions—and how mortality rates can be ameliorated under different strategic responses. In particular, we consider hard or soft social distancing strategies predicated on national (Federal) or regional (State) estimates of the prevalence of infection in the population. The modelling is demonstrated using timeseries of new cases and deaths from the United States to estimate the parameters of a factorial (compartmental) epidemiological model of each State and, crucially, coupling between States. Using Bayesian model reduction, we identify the effective connectivity between States that best explains the initial phases of the outbreak in the United States. Using the ensuing posterior parameter estimates, we then evaluate the likely outcomes of different policies in terms of mortality, working days lost due to lockdown and demands upon critical care. The provisional results of this modelling suggest that social distancing and loss of immunity are the two key factors that underwrite a return to endemic equilibrium

Dynamic causal modelling of COVID-19 [version 1; peer review: 1 approved, 1 not approved]

This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time. The purpose of this model is to quantify the uncertainty that attends predictions of relevant outcomes. By assuming suitable conditional dependencies, one can model the effects of interventions (e.g., social distancing) and differences among populations (e.g., herd immunity) to predict what might happen in different circumstances. Technically, this model leverages state-of-the-art variational (Bayesian) model inversion and comparison procedures, originally developed to characterise the responses of neuronal ensembles to perturbations. Here, this modelling is applied to epidemiological populations to illustrate the kind of inferences that are supported and how the model per se can be optimised given timeseries data. Although the purpose of this paper is to describe a modelling protocol, the results illustrate some interesting perspectives on the current pandemic; for example, the nonlinear effects of herd immunity that speak to a self-organised mitigation process

Testing and tracking in the UK: A dynamic causal modelling study [version 1; peer review: 1 approved with reservations, 1 not approved]

By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal modelling of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we were able to model the effects of self-isolation consequent on testing and tracking. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by people who believe they might be infected but are asymptomatic—and could only leave if they test negative. We recovered maximum posteriori estimates of the model parameters using time series of new cases, daily deaths, and tests for the UK. These parameters were used to simulate the trajectory of the outbreak in the UK over an 18-month period. Several clear-cut conclusions emerged from these simulations. For example, under plausible (graded) relaxations of social distancing, a rebound of infections is highly unlikely. The emergence of a second wave depends almost exclusively on the rate at which we lose immunity, inherited from the first wave. There exists no testing strategy that can attenuate mortality rates, other than by deferring or delaying a second wave. A testing and tracking policy—implemented at the present time—will defer any second wave beyond a time horizon of 18 months. Crucially, this deferment is within current testing capabilities (requiring an efficacy of tracing and tracking of about 20% of asymptomatic infected cases, with 50,000 tests per day). These conclusions are based upon a dynamic causal model for which we provide some construct and face validation—using a comparative analysis of the United Kingdom and Germany, supplemented with recent serological studies

Testing and tracking in the UK: A dynamic causal modelling study [version 2; peer review: 1 approved with reservations, 1 not approved]

By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal modelling of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we were able to model the effects of self-isolation consequent on testing and tracking. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by people who believe they might be infected but are asymptomatic—and could only leave if they test negative. We recovered maximum posteriori estimates of the model parameters using time series of new cases, daily deaths, and tests for the UK. These parameters were used to simulate the trajectory of the outbreak in the UK over an 18-month period. Several clear-cut conclusions emerged from these simulations. For example, under plausible (graded) relaxations of social distancing, a rebound of infections is highly unlikely. The emergence of a second wave depends almost exclusively on the rate at which we lose immunity, inherited from the first wave. There exists no testing strategy that can attenuate mortality rates, other than by deferring or delaying a second wave. A testing and tracking policy—implemented at the present time—will defer any second wave beyond a time horizon of 18 months. Crucially, this deferment is within current testing capabilities (requiring an efficacy of tracing and tracking of about 20% of asymptomatic infected cases, with 50,000 tests per day). These conclusions are based upon a dynamic causal model for which we provide some construct and face validation—using a comparative analysis of the United Kingdom and Germany, supplemented with recent serological studies

Well dispersed fractal aggregates as filler in polymer-silica nanocomposites: long range effects in rheology

We are presenting a new method of processing polystyrene-silica nanocomposites, which results in a very well-defined dispersion of small primary aggregates (assembly of 15 nanoparticles of 10 nm diameter) in the matrix. The process is based on a high boiling point solvent, in which the nanoparticles are well dispersed, and controlled evaporation. The filler's fine network structure is determined over a wide range of sizes, using a combination of Small Angle Neutron Scattering (SANS) and Transmission Electronic Microscopy (TEM). The mechanical response of the nanocomposite material is investigated both for small (ARES oscillatory shear and Dynamical Mechanical Analysis) and large deformations (uniaxial traction), as a function of the concentration of the particles. We can investigate the structure-property correlations for the two main reinforcement effects: the filler network contribution, and a filler-polymer matrix effect. Above a silica volume fraction threshold, we see a divergence of the modulus correlated to the build up of a connected network. Below the threshold, we obtain a new additional elastic contribution of much longer terminal time than the matrix. Since aggregates are separated by at least 60 nm, this new filler-matrix contribution cannot be described solely with the concept of glassy layer (2nm)

Effective immunity and second waves: a dynamic causal modelling study [version 1; peer review: 1 approved, 1 not approved]

This technical report addresses a pressing issue in the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak; namely, the rate at which effective immunity is lost following the first wave of the pandemic. This is a crucial epidemiological parameter that speaks to both the consequences of relaxing lockdown and the propensity for a second wave of infections. Using a dynamic causal model of reported cases and deaths from multiple countries, we evaluated the evidence models of progressively longer periods of immunity. The results speak to an effective population immunity of about three months that, under the model, defers any second wave for approximately six months in most countries. This may have implications for the window of opportunity for tracking and tracing, as well as for developing vaccination programmes, and other therapeutic interventions

Transcription of toll-like receptors 2, 3, 4 and 9, FoxP3 and Th17 cytokines in a susceptible experimental model of canine Leishmania infantum infection

Canine leishmaniosis (CanL) due to Leishmania infantum is a chronic zoonotic systemic disease resulting from complex interactions between protozoa and the canine immune system. Toll-like receptors (TLRs) are essential components of the innate immune system and facilitate the early detection of many infections. However, the role of TLRs in CanL remains unknown and information describing TLR transcription during infection is extremely scarce. The aim of this research project was to investigate the impact of L. infantum infection on canine TLR transcription using a susceptible model. The objectives of this study were to evaluate transcription of TLRs 2, 3, 4 and 9 by means of quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) in skin, spleen, lymph node and liver in the presence or absence of experimental L. infantum infection in Beagle dogs. These findings were compared with clinical and serological data, parasite densities in infected tissues and transcription of IL-17, IL-22 and FoxP3 in different tissues in non-infected dogs (n = 10), and at six months (n = 24) and 15 months (n = 7) post infection. Results revealed significant down regulation of transcription with disease progression in lymph node samples for TLR3, TLR4, TLR9, IL-17, IL-22 and FoxP3. In spleen samples, significant down regulation of transcription was seen in TLR4 and IL-22 when both infected groups were compared with controls. In liver samples, down regulation of transcription was evident with disease progression for IL-22. In the skin, upregulation was seen only for TLR9 and FoxP3 in the early stages of infection. Subtle changes or down regulation in TLR transcription, Th17 cytokines and FoxP3 are indicative of the silent establishment of infection that Leishmania is renowned for. These observations provide new insights about TLR transcription, Th17 cytokines and Foxp3 in the liver, spleen, lymph node and skin in CanL and highlight possible markers of disease susceptibility in this model