Envisioning present and future land-use change under varying ecological regimes and their influence on landscape stability

7siopenClimate change plays an important role in shaping ecological stability of landscape systems. Increasing weather fluctuations such as droughts threaten the ecological stability of natural and anthropogenic landscapes. Uncertainty exists regarding the validity of traditional landscape assessment schemes under climate change. This commentary debates the main factors that threaten ecological stability, discussing basic approaches to interpret landscape functioning. To address this pivotal issue, the intimate linkage between ecological stability and landscape diversity is explored, considering different approaches to landscape stability assessment. The impact of land-use changes on landscape stability is finally discussed. Assessment methodologies and indicators are reviewed and grouped into homogeneous classes based on a specific nomenclature of stability aspects which include landscape composition, fragmentation and connectivity, thermodynamic and functional issues, biodiversity, soil degradation, and ecological disturbance. By considering land-use change as one of the most important factors underlying climate change, individual components of landscape stability are finally delineated and commented upon. In this regard, specific trajectories of land-use change (including agricultural intensification, land abandonment, and urbanization) are investigated for their effects on ecological stability. A better understanding of land-use impacts on landscape stability is crucial for a better knowledge of processes leading to land degradation.openProkopova M.; Salvati L.; Egidi G.; Cudlin O.; Vcelakova R.; Plch R.; Cudlin P.Prokopova, M.; Salvati, L.; Egidi, G.; Cudlin, O.; Vcelakova, R.; Plch, R.; Cudlin, P

Investigating Metropolitan Hierarchies through a Spatially Explicit (Local) Approach

Assuming a non-neutral impact of space, an explicit assessment of metropolitan hierarchies based on local regression models produces a refined description of population settlement patterns and processes over time. We used Geographically Weighted Regressions (GWR) to provide an enriched interpretation of the density gradient in Greece, estimating a spatially explicit rank–size relationship inspired by Zipf’s law. The empirical results of the GWR models quantified the adherence of real data (municipal population density as a predictor of metropolitan hierarchy) to the operational assumptions of the rank–size relationship. Local deviations from its prediction were explained considering the peculiarity of the metropolitan cycle (1961–2011) in the country. Although preliminary and exploratory, these findings decomposed representative population dynamics in two stages of the cycle (namely urbanization, 1961–1991, and suburbanization, 1991–2011). Being in line with earlier studies, this timing allowed a geographical interpretation of the evolution of a particularly complex metropolitan system with intense (urban) primacy and a weak level of rural development over a sufficiently long time interval. Introducing a spatially explicit estimation of the rank–size relationship at detailed territorial resolutions provided an original contribution to regional science, covering broad geographical scales

Desertification risk fuels spatial polarization in ‘affected’ and ‘unaffected’ landscapes in Italy

Southern Europe is a hotspot for desertification risk because of the intimate impact of soil deterioration, landscape transformations, rising human pressure, and climate change. In this context, large-scale empirical analyses linking landscape fragmentation with desertification risk assume that increasing levels of land vulnerability to degradation are associated with significant changes in landscape structure. Using a traditional approach of landscape ecology, this study evaluates the spatial structure of a simulated landscape based on different levels of vulnerability to land degradation using 15 metrics calculated at three time points (early-1960s, early-1990s, early-2010s) in Italy. While the (average) level of land vulnerability increased over time almost in all Italian regions, vulnerable landscapes demonstrated to be increasingly fragmented, as far as the number of homogeneous patches and mean patch size are concerned. The spatial balance in affected and unaffected areas—typically observed in the 1960s—was progressively replaced with an intrinsically disordered landscape, and this process was more intense in regions exposed to higher (and increasing) levels of land degradation. The spread of larger land patches exposed to intrinsic degradation brings to important consequences since (1) the rising number of hotspots may increase the probability of local-scale degradation processes, and (2) the buffering effect of neighbouring (unaffected) land can be less effective on bigger hotspots, promoting a downward spiral toward desertification

Delineating the Intrinsic, Long-Term Path of Land Degradation: A Spatially Explicit Transition Matrix for Italy, 1960–2010

Vulnerability to land degradation in southern Europe has increased substantially in the last decades because of climate and land-use change, soil deterioration, and rising human pressure. The present work focuses on a quantitative evaluation of changes over time in the level of vulnerability to land degradation of a Mediterranean country (Italy) using a composite indicator, the environmentally sensitive area index (ESAI), which is the final outcome of a complex model conceived to assess land vulnerability on the basis of climate, soil, vegetation, and human pressure. Considering four different levels of vulnerability to land degradation (not affected, potentially affected, fragile, and critical), the main trajectories of this index were highlighted in a long-time perspective (1960–2010), discriminating dynamics over two sub-periods (1960–1990 and 1990–2010). The empirical results at a very detailed spatial scale (1 km2 grid) reflect spatial consolidation of degradation hot-spots over time. However, aggregated trajectories of change indicate an overall improvement in the environmental conditions between 1990 and 2010 compared with what is observed during the first period (1960–1990). Worse environmental conditions concerned southern Italian regions with a dry climate and poor soil conditions in the first time interval, large parts of northern Italy, traditionally recognized as a wet and affluent agricultural region, experienced increasing levels of land vulnerability in the second time interval. Being classified as an unaffected region according with the Italian national action plan (NAP), the expansion of (originally sparse) degradation hot-spots in northern Italy, reflective of an overall increase in critical areas, suggests a substantial re-thinking of the Italian NAP. This may lead to a redesign of individual regional action plans (RAPs) implementing place-specific approaches and comprehensive measures to be adopted to mitigate land degradation

Priority questions in multidisciplinary drought research

Addressing timely and relevant questions across a multitude of spatio-temporal scales, state-of-the-art interdisciplinary drought research will likely increase in importance under projected climate change. Given the complexity of the various direct and indirect causes and consequences of a drier world, scientific tasks need to be coordinated efficiently. Drought-related research endeavors ranging from individual projects to global initiatives therefore require prioritization. Here, we present 60 priority questions for optimizing future drought research. This topical catalogue reflects the experience of 65 scholars from 21 countries and almost 20 fields of research in both natural sciences and the humanities. The set of drought-related questions primarily covers drought monitoring, impacts, forecasting, climatology, adaptation, as well as planning and policy. The questions highlight the increasingly important role of remote sensing techniques in drought monitoring, importance of drought forecasting and understanding the relationships between drought parameters and drought impacts, but also challenges of drought adaptation and preparedness policies

Belowground Biodiversity Relates Positively to Ecosystem Services of European Forests

Environmental Biolog

Latent drivers of landscape transformation in eastern Europe. Past, present and future

6siopenLand-use changes in Europe have been influenced by social forces including economic, demographic, political, technological and cultural factors. Contributing to a refined conceptualization of multifaceted processes of landscape transformation in the European continent, the present study proposes an extensive review of land-use trends in Eastern Europe, focusing on past, present and future conditions that may characterize latent drivers of change. Three time periods with a specific institutional, political and socioeconomic context reflecting distinct processes of land-use change were identified including: (i) the rapid transition to a centralized political system since the early 1950s (up to the late 1980s); (ii) a progressive transition from communist regimes to parliamentary democracy in 1989-1990 (up to the early 2000s); and (iii) the subsequent accession of individual countries to the European Union (2004-2007) up to nowadays. The most recent land-use trends are increasingly influenced by European directives on the environment, while national policies continue to shape economic development in member states.openProkopova M.; Cudlin O.; Vcelakova R.; Lengyel S.; Salvati L.; Cudlin P.Prokopova, M.; Cudlin, O.; Vcelakova, R.; Lengyel, S.; Salvati, L.; Cudlin, P

Are valuable and representative natural habitats sufficiently protected? Application of marxan model in the Czech Republic

6nononeThe joint impact of human activities and climate change on natural resources lead to biodiversity loss. Therefore, it is important to select protected areas through systematic conservation planning. The present study assessed how representative natural habitats are protected under the nature conservation network, and to identify new-but so far insufficiently-protected areas containing these habitats for sustainable management. We used the Marxan model to select the most valuable insufficiently protected natural habitats in the Czech Republic as a representative example for a conservation strategy for Central-Eastern European environments. We set three conservation targets (25%, 50%, and 75%), defining how much percent area of valuable representative natural habitats should be added to the area of the habitats already included in the Nature Protection Network. To implement these conservation targets it is necessary to preserve 22,932 ha, 72,429, ha and 124,363 ha respectively of the conservation targets occurring in the insufficiently protected areas, and 17,255 ha, 51,620 ha, and 84,993 ha respectively of the conservation features in the areas without protection status. Marxan was revealed to be an appropriate tool to select the most valuable and insufficiently protected natural habitats for sustainable management.noneCudlin O.; Pechanec V.; Purkyt J.; Chobot K.; Salvati L.; Cudlin P.Cudlin, O.; Pechanec, V.; Purkyt, J.; Chobot, K.; Salvati, L.; Cudlin, P

Moving toward the north: A country-level classification of land sensitivity to degradation in Czech Republic

Land sensitivity to degradation is a spatially varying attribute of local systems that experience rapid changes in socio-ecological conditions. To answer the increasing demand of quantitative risk assessment of land degradation and desertification - taken as a final stage of land degradation - in non-affected countries, our study estimates land sensitivity to degradation in the Czech Republic at 1:10,000 scale using the Environmental Sensitive Area (ESA) framework. Czech land was classified into four sensitivity levels (‘insensitive’, ‘potentially sensitive’, ‘fragile’, and ‘critical’). ‘Fragile’ and ‘critical’ land concentrated in accessible lowlands with intensive agriculture. Climate and vegetation quality contributed the most to land sensitivity to degradation in the country. Low soil quality and land management quality were causes of land sensitivity in few, sparse agricultural districts. A comparison with Mediterranean and South-Eastern European countries indicates that land sensitivity to degradation in the Czech Republic is only slightly lower than in neighbouring, affected countries (sensu UNCCD, Annex IV), with the same acting drivers (agriculture intensification and urban sprawl). In light of climate change, national and regional policies are required to face with the increase of land sensitivity in ‘formally non-affected’ countries of Central-Eastern Europe, taking stock of the ‘Mediterranean’ experience in assessing and managing land sensitivity to degradation

Conclusion: Land degradation and complex socioecological systems

Ecosystems can be considered as complex systems where different elements (productive, institutional and contextual) act synergistically on environmental conditions and land degradation processes. Soil degradation, drought, poverty, cultural and technological backwardness are the main causes of degradation of both natural and social environments. Such issues usually affect marginal areas, and this happens both in economically-developed countries and in developing regions. In these areas, sustainable land management is recognized as the element on which to act to improve people's living conditions and safeguard the environment (Salvati and Zitti, 2008b; Salvati and Carlucci, 2011, 2014; Salvati et al., 2013a; Zitti et al., 2015; Biasi et al., 2017; Pili et al., 2017). Desertification is the most emblematic case of land degradation, the effects of which were first recognized at the beginning of the 20th century (Kosmas et al., 1999, 2003, 2013; Salvati et al., 2009; Kairis et al., 2013a, 2013b). In 1930, most of the Great Plains of the United States of America suffered a prolonged drought which, together with inappropriate agronomic practices, led to soil degradation, which has gone down in history with the term "dust bowls". Specifically, adverse weather and climate conditions appeared that affected the Central United States and Canada between 1931 and 1939 which, leading to soil deterioration, gave rise to sandstorms. This ecological disaster caused an exodus of more than half a million Americans who left their farms in Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma. Only the adoption of more appropriate cultivation methods and the sustainable management of water resources prevented catastrophic consequences in the event of similar droughts. Unfortunately, this has not remained an isolated episode because adverse climatic conditions and poor land management have led to cases of land degradation in almost all areas worldwide (Moonen et al., 2002; Montanarella, 2007; Salvati et al., 2012a; Colantoni et al., 2015a). Nowadays, global warming, together with the intensification of economic development and population growth, have led to soil degradation, that now affects nearly 40% of the Earth's surface, including some areas of southern Europe (National Committee for the Fight against Desertification, 1998). After experiencing droughts with a general increase in climatic aridity, the Mediterranean basin has in fact been considered one of the most important hotspots for the observation of soil degradation and desertification processes (Kosmas et al., 1999, 2003, 2013; Salvati and Zitti, 2005; Salvati et al., 2009, 2012b; Kairis et al., 2013a, 2013b; Karamesouti et al., 2015; Zambon et al., 2018). It has been widely demonstrated that, in this region, the increasing level of environmental vulnerability is associated with long-term ecological dynamics (e.g., climate aridity, soil deterioration, erosion, salinity and land-use changes) together with socioeconomic, cultural and institutional dynamics that contribute to anthropogenic pressure leading to major landscape transformations (Moonen et al., 2002; Montanarella, 2007; Salvati and Zitti, 2008a; Salvati et al., 2012a; Colantoni et al., 2015a; Di Feliciantonio and Salvati, 2015; Zambon et al., 2017, 2018). All these conditions can be exacerbated by unsustainable land management, especially in fragile areas (Moonen et al., 2002)