Weak noise approach to the logistic map

Using a nonperturbative weak noise approach we investigate the interference of noise and chaos in simple 1D maps. We replace the noise-driven 1D map by an area-preserving 2D map modelling the Poincare sections of a conserved dynamical system with unbounded energy manifolds. We analyze the properties of the 2D map and draw conclusions concerning the interference of noise on the nonlinear time evolution. We apply this technique to the standard period-doubling sequence in the logistic map. From the 2D area-preserving analogue we, in addition to the usual period-doubling sequence, obtain a series of period doubled cycles which are elliptic in nature. These cycles are spinning off the real axis at parameters values corresponding to the standard period doubling events.Comment: 22 pages in revtex and 8 figures in ep

Synchronization Model for Stock Market Asymmetry

The waiting time needed for a stock market index to undergo a given percentage change in its value is found to have an up-down asymmetry, which, surprisingly, is not observed for the individual stocks composing that index. To explain this, we introduce a market model consisting of randomly fluctuating stocks that occasionally synchronize their short term draw-downs. These synchronous events are parameterized by a ``fear factor'', that reflects the occurrence of dramatic external events which affect the financial market.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Dynamical Organization around Turbulent Bursts

The detailed dynamics around intermittency bursts is investigated in turbulent shell models. We observe that the amplitude of the high wave number velocity modes vanishes before each burst, meaning that the fixed point in zero and not the Kolmogorov fixed point determines the intermittency. The phases of the field organize during the burst, and after a burst the field oscillates back to the laminar level. We explain this behavior from the variations in the values of the dissipation and the advection around the zero fixed point.Comment: 4 pages, REVTex, 3 figures in one ps-fil

Comparative Network Analysis of Preterm vs. Full-Term Infant-Mother Interactions

Several studies have reported that interactions of mothers with preterm infants show differential characteristics compared to that of mothers with full-term infants. Interaction of preterm dyads is often reported as less harmonious. However, observations and explanations concerning the underlying mechanisms are inconsistent. In this work 30 preterm and 42 full-term mother-infant dyads were observed at one year of age. Free play interactions were videotaped and coded using a micro-analytic coding system. The video records were coded at one second resolution and studied by a novel approach using network analysis tools. The advantage of our approach is that it reveals the patterns of behavioral transitions in the interactions. We found that the most frequent behavioral transitions are the same in the two groups. However, we have identified several high and lower frequency transitions which occur significantly more often in the preterm or full-term group. Our analysis also suggests that the variability of behavioral transitions is significantly higher in the preterm group. This higher variability is mostly resulted from the diversity of transitions involving non-harmonious behaviors. We have identified a maladaptive pattern in the maternal behavior in the preterm group, involving intrusiveness and disengagement. Application of the approach reported in this paper to longitudinal data could elucidate whether these maladaptive maternal behavioral changes place the infant at risk for later emotional, cognitive and behavioral disturbance

Different paths to the modern state in Europe: the interaction between domestic political economy and interstate competition

Theoretical work on state formation and capacity has focused mostly on early modern Europe and on the experience of western European states during this period. While a number of European states monopolized domestic tax collection and achieved gains in state capacity during the early modern era, for others revenues stagnated or even declined, and these variations motivated alternative hypotheses for determinants of fiscal and state capacity. In this study we test the basic hypotheses in the existing literature making use of the large date set we have compiled for all of the leading states across the continent. We find strong empirical support for two prevailing threads in the literature, arguing respectively that interstate wars and changes in economic structure towards an urbanized economy had positive fiscal impact. Regarding the main point of contention in the theoretical literature, whether it was representative or authoritarian political regimes that facilitated the gains in fiscal capacity, we do not find conclusive evidence that one performed better than the other. Instead, the empirical evidence we have gathered lends supports to the hypothesis that when under pressure of war, the fiscal performance of representative regimes was better in the more urbanized-commercial economies and the fiscal performance of authoritarian regimes was better in rural-agrarian economie