Socio-hydrological modelling: a review asking “why, what and how?”

Interactions between humans and the environment are occurring on a scale that has never previously been seen; the scale of human interaction with the water cycle, along with the coupling present between social and hydrological systems, means that decisions that impact water also impact people. Models are often used to assist in decision-making regarding hydrological systems, and so in order for effective decisions to be made regarding water resource management, these interactions and feedbacks should be accounted for in models used to analyse systems in which water and humans interact. This paper reviews literature surrounding aspects of socio-hydrological modelling. It begins with background information regarding the current state of socio-hydrology as a discipline, before covering reasons for modelling and potential applications. Some important concepts that underlie socio-hydrological modelling efforts are then discussed, including ways of viewing socio-hydrological systems, space and time in modelling, complexity, data and model conceptualisation. Several modelling approaches are described, the stages in their development detailed and their applicability to socio-hydrological cases discussed. Gaps in research are then highlighted to guide directions for future research. The review of literature suggests that the nature of socio-hydrological study, being interdisciplinary, focusing on complex interactions between human and natural systems, and dealing with long horizons, is such that modelling will always present a challenge; it is, however, the task of the modeller to use the wide range of tools afforded to them to overcome these challenges as much as possible. The focus in socio-hydrology is on understanding the human–water system in a holistic sense, which differs from the problem solving focus of other water management fields, and as such models in socio-hydrology should be developed with a view to gaining new insight into these dynamics. There is an essential choice that socio-hydrological modellers face in deciding between representing individual system processes or viewing the system from a more abstracted level and modelling it as such; using these different approaches has implications for model development, applicability and the insight that they are capable of giving, and so the decision regarding how to model the system requires thorough consideration of, among other things, the nature of understanding that is sought

Prognostic value of bcl-2 expression in invasive breast cancer.

Expression of the bcl-2 proto-oncogene was studied immunohistochemically in 251 invasive ductal breast carcinomas (median follow-up time 91 months, range 24-186 months) and the results were correlated with clinicopathological data and prognostic variables. Sixty-three (25%) tumours were scored bcl-2 negative and 188 (75%) tumours were bcl-2 positive. No relationship could be observed between bcl-2 status and tumour grade, pTNM staging or menopausal status. A strong positive relationship was demonstrated between bcl-2 immunoreactivity and oestrogen receptor status (P < 0.001) and progesterone receptor status (P < 0.001). No prognostic value was demonstrated for bcl-2 expression on disease-free survival and overall survival in axillary node-negative breast cancer patients. However, in axillary node-positive breast cancer patients multivariate analysis demonstrated absence of bcl-2 expression to be independently related to shortened disease-free survival (P = 0.003) and shortened overall survival (P < 0.001). Our results suggest a potential important role for bcl-2 expression as a modulator of response to adjuvant therapy in breast cancer

An Open Data and Citizen Science Approach to Building Resilience to Natural Hazards in a Data-Scarce Remote Mountainous Part of Nepal

The citizen science approach has gained momentum in recent years. It can enable both experts and citizen scientists to co-create new knowledge. Better understanding of local environmental, social, and geographical contexts can help in designing appropriate plans for sustainable development. However, a lack of geospatial data, especially in the context of developing countries, often precludes context-specific development planning. This study therefore tests an innovative approach of volunteer citizen science and an open mapping platform to build resilience to natural hazards in the remote mountainous parts of western Nepal. In this study, citizen scientists and mapping experts jointly mapped two districts of Nepal (Bajhang and Bajura) using the OpenStreetMap (OSM) platform. Remote mapping based on satellite imagery, capacity building, and mobilization of citizen scientists was performed to collect the data. These data were then uploaded to OSM and later retrieved in ArcGIS to produce a usable map that could be exploited as a reference resource for evidence-based decision-making. The collected data are freely accessible to community members as well as government and humanitarian actors, and can be used for development planning and risk reduction. By piloting in two communities of western Nepal, we found that using open data platforms for collecting and analyzing location-based data has a mutual benefit for researchers and communities. Such data could be vital in understanding the local landscape, environmental risk, and distribution of resources. Furthermore, they enable both researchers and local people to transfer technical knowledge, collect location-specific data, and use them for better decision-making

Characterisation of Medipix3 Silicon Detectors in a Charged-Particle Beam

While designed primarily for X-ray imaging applications, the Medipix3 ASIC can also be used for charged-particle tracking. In this work, results from a beam test at the CERN SPS with irradiated and non-irradiated sensors are presented and shown to be in agreement with simulation, demonstrating the suitability of the Medipix3 ASIC as a tool for characterising pixel sensors.Comment: 16 pages, 13 figure

Morphology and function of Bast’s valve: additional insight in its functioning using 3D-reconstruction

The utriculo-endolymphatic valve was discovered by Bast in 1928. The function of Bast’s valve is still unclear. By means of orthogonal-plane fluorescence optical sectioning (OPFOS) microscopy 3D-reconstructions of the valve and its surrounding region are depicted. The shape of the duct at the utricular side is that of a flattened funnel. In the direction of the endolymphatic duct and sac this funnel runs into a very narrow duct. The valve itself has a rigid ‘arch-like’ configuration. The opposing thin, one cell-layer thick, utricular membrane is highly compliant. We propose that opening and closure of the valve occurs through movement of the flexible base/utricular membrane away from and toward the relatively rigid valve lip

Projected increases in the annual flood pulse of the Western Amazon

The impact of a changing climate on the Amazon basin is a subject of intensive research because of its rich biodiversity and the significant role of rainforests in carbon cycling. Climate change has also a direct hydrological impact, and increasing efforts have focused on understanding the hydrological dynamics at continental and subregional scales, such as the Western Amazon. New projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 ensemble indicate consistent climatic warming and increasing seasonality of precipitation in the Peruvian Amazon basin. Here we use a distributed land surface model to quantify the potential impact of this change in the climate on the hydrological regime of the upper Amazon river. Using extreme value analysis, historical and future projections of the annual minimum, mean, and maximum river flows are produced for a range of return periods between 1 and 100 yr. We show that the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of climate change project an increased severity of the wet season flood pulse (7.5% and 12% increases respectively for the 100 yr return floods). These findings agree with previously projected increases in high extremes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios climate projections, and are important to highlight due to the potential consequences on reproductive processes of in-stream species, swamp forest ecology, and socio-economy in the floodplain, amidst a growing literature that more strongly emphasises future droughts and their impact on the viability of the rainforest system over greater Amazonia

First results from NA60 on low mass muon pair production in In-In collisions at 158 GeV/nucleon

The NA60 experiment at the CERN SPS studies dimuon production in proton-nucleus and nucleus-nucleus collisions. The combined information from a novel vertex telescope made of radiation-tolerant silicon pixel detectors and from the muon spectrometer previously used in NA50 allows for a precise measurement of the muon vertex and a much improved dimuon mass resolution. We report on first results from the data taken for Indium-Indium collisions at 158 AGeV/nucleon in 2003, concentrating on a subsample of about 370 000 muon pairs in the mass range $<1.2$ GeV/$c^{2}$. The light vector mesons $\omega$ and $\phi$ are completely resolved, with a mass resolution of about 23 MeV/$c^{2}$ at the $\phi$. The transverse momentum spectra of the $\phi$ are measured over the continuous range $0<p_{\rm T}<2.5$ GeV/c; the inverse slope parameter of the spectra is found to increase with centrality, with an average value of $T=252\pm3$ MeV.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures. Plenary talk, SQM2004 conference, Cape Town, South Africa 15-20 September, 2004. To be published in Journal of Physics G: Nuclear and Particle Physic

First results from the NA60 experiment at CERN

Since 1986, several heavy ion experiments have studied some signatures of the formation of the quark-gluon plasma and a few exciting results have been found. However, some important questions are still unanswered and require new measurements. The NA60 experiment, with a new detector concept that vastly improves dimuon detection in proton-nucleus and heavy-ion collisions, studies several of those open questions, including the production of open charm. This paper presents the experiment and some first results from data collected in 2002.Comment: Paper presented at the XXXVIII Rencontres de Moriond, QCD and High Energy Hadronic Interactions, Les Arcs, March 22-29, 2003. 4 pages, 6 figure

Comparative predictions of discharge from an artificial catchment (Chicken Creek) using sparse data

Ten conceptually different models in predicting discharge from the artificial Chicken Creek catchment in North-East Germany were used for this study. Soil texture and topography data were given to the modellers, but discharge data was withheld. We compare the predictions with the measurements from the 6 ha catchment and discuss the conceptualization and parameterization of the models. The predictions vary in a wide range, e.g. with the predicted actual evapotranspiration ranging from 88 to 579 mm/y and the discharge from 19 to 346 mm/y. The predicted components of the hydrological cycle deviated systematically from the observations, which were not known to the modellers. Discharge was mainly predicted as subsurface discharge with little direct runoff. In reality, surface runoff was a major flow component despite the fairly coarse soil texture. The actual evapotranspiration (AET) and the ratio between actual and potential ET was systematically overestimated by nine of the ten models. None of the model simulations came even close to the observed water balance for the entire 3-year study period. The comparison indicates that the personal judgement of the modellers was a major source of the differences between the model results. The most important parameters to be presumed were the soil parameters and the initial soil-water content while plant parameterization had, in this particular case of sparse vegetation, only a minor influence on the results