1,550 research outputs found

    The Status of Judicial Reform in Russia

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    The Status of Judicial Reform in Russia

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    Reproducibility in forecasting research

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    The importance of replication has been recognised across many scientific disciplines. Reproducibility is a necessary condition for replicability, because an inability to reproduce results implies that the methods have not been specified sufficiently, thus precluding replication. This paper describes how two independent teams of researchers attempted to reproduce the empirical findings of an important paper, ‘‘Shrinkage estimators of time series seasonal factors and their effect on forecasting accuracy’’ (Miller & Williams, 2003). The two teams proceeded systematically, reporting results both before and after receiving clarifications from the authors of the original study. The teams were able to approximately reproduce each other’s results, but not those of Miller and Williams. These discrepancies led to differences in the conclusions as to the conditions under which seasonal damping outperforms classical decomposition. The paper specifies the forecasting methods employed using a flowchart. It is argued that this approach to method documentation is complementary to the provision of computer code, as it is accessible to a broader audience of forecasting practitioners and researchers. The significance of this research lies not only in its lessons for seasonal forecasting but also, more generally, in its approach to the reproduction of forecasting research

    Environmental Quenching of Low-Mass Field Galaxies

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    In the local Universe, there is a strong division in the star-forming properties of low-mass galaxies, with star formation largely ubiquitous amongst the field population while satellite systems are predominantly quenched. This dichotomy implies that environmental processes play the dominant role in suppressing star formation within this low-mass regime (M105.58 M{M}_{\star} \sim 10^{5.5-8}~{\rm M}_{\odot}). As shown by observations of the Local Volume, however, there is a non-negligible population of passive systems in the field, which challenges our understanding of quenching at low masses. By applying the satellite quenching models of Fillingham et al. (2015) to subhalo populations in the Exploring the Local Volume In Simulations (ELVIS) suite, we investigate the role of environmental processes in quenching star formation within the nearby field. Using model parameters that reproduce the satellite quenched fraction in the Local Group, we predict a quenched fraction -- due solely to environmental effects -- of 0.52±0.26\sim 0.52 \pm 0.26 within 1<R/Rvir<21< R/R_{\rm vir} < 2 of the Milky Way and M31. This is in good agreement with current observations of the Local Volume and suggests that the majority of the passive field systems observed at these distances are quenched via environmental mechanisms. Beyond 2 Rvir2~R_{\rm vir}, however, dwarf galaxy quenching becomes difficult to explain through an interaction with either the Milky Way or M31, such that more isolated, field dwarfs may be self-quenched as a result of star-formation feedback.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, MNRAS accepted version, comments welcome - RIP Ducky...gone but never forgotte

    Taking Care of Business in a Flash: Constraining the Timescale for Low-Mass Satellite Quenching with ELVIS

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    The vast majority of dwarf satellites orbiting the Milky Way and M31 are quenched, while comparable galaxies in the field are gas-rich and star-forming. Assuming that this dichotomy is driven by environmental quenching, we use the ELVIS suite of N-body simulations to constrain the characteristic timescale upon which satellites must quench following infall into the virial volumes of their hosts. The high satellite quenched fraction observed in the Local Group demands an extremely short quenching timescale (~ 2 Gyr) for dwarf satellites in the mass range Mstar ~ 10^6-10^8 Msun. This quenching timescale is significantly shorter than that required to explain the quenched fraction of more massive satellites (~ 8 Gyr), both in the Local Group and in more massive host halos, suggesting a dramatic change in the dominant satellite quenching mechanism at Mstar < 10^8 Msun. Combining our work with the results of complementary analyses in the literature, we conclude that the suppression of star formation in massive satellites (Mstar ~ 10^8 - 10^11 Msun) is broadly consistent with being driven by starvation, such that the satellite quenching timescale corresponds to the cold gas depletion time. Below a critical stellar mass scale of ~ 10^8 Msun, however, the required quenching times are much shorter than the expected cold gas depletion times. Instead, quenching must act on a timescale comparable to the dynamical time of the host halo. We posit that ram-pressure stripping can naturally explain this behavior, with the critical mass (of Mstar ~ 10^8 Msun) corresponding to halos with gravitational restoring forces that are too weak to overcome the drag force encountered when moving through an extended, hot circumgalactic medium.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures; resubmitted to MNRAS after referee report (August 25, 2015
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