Orographic effects on convective precipitation and space-time rainfall variability: preliminary results

International audienceIn the EFFS Project, an attempt has been made to develop a general framework to study the predictability of severe convective rainfall events in the presence of orography. Convective activity is embedded in orographic rainfall and can be thought as the result of several physical mechanisms. Quantifying its variability on selected area and time scales requires choosing the best physical representation of the rainfall variability on these scales. The main goal was (i) to formulate a meaningful set of experiments to compute the oscillation of variance due to convection inside model forecasts in the presence of orography and (ii) to give a statistical measure of it that might be of value in the operational use of atmospheric data. The study has been limited to atmospheric scales that span the atmosphere from 2 to 200 km and has been focused on extreme events with deep convection. Suitable measures of the changing of convection in the presence of orography have been related to the physical properties of the rainfall environment. Preliminary results for the statistical variability of the convective field are presented

An intercomparison between low-frequency variability indices

Possible connections between spatial patterns, of limited regional extent and identified in teleconnectionpatterns and in blocking climatology studies, with hemispheric planetary-wave activitymodes defined by the wave amplitude index (WAI) are investigated. The WAI probabilitydensity function (PDF) for the northern extratropics winter fields is estimated and the sensitivityof the WAI distribution to the presence of low-frequency variability modes is evaluated bystratifying the available dataset according to the sign of blocking and teleconnection indices.It is found that low-frequency variability modes affect both the mean and the variance of thewave amplitude index. Both the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) andthe negative phase of the Pacific North American pattern (PNA) are associated with anenhanced frequency of very large amplitude planetary waves. Furthermore, distributions characterisedby a maximum corresponding to high WAI values also exhibit a large variance. NegativeNAO and positive PNA influence the mean and the variance of WAI PDF in the oppositesense. Similar results are found when the blocking index is considered. WAI PDFs relative tohighly blocked months are broader with a secondary maximum corresponding to very highWAI values. DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.1999.00016.

The variable link between PNA and NAO in observations and in multi-century CGCM simulations

The link between the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated in reanalysis data (NCEP, ERA40) and multi-century CGCM runs for present day climate using three versions of the ECHAM model. PNA and NAO patterns and indices are determined via rotated principal component analysis on monthly mean 500 hPa geopotential height fields using the varimax criteria. On average, the multi-century CGCM simulations show a significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO. Further, multi-decadal periods with significantly enhanced (high anti-correlation, active phase) or weakened (low correlations, inactive phase) coupling are found in all CGCMs. In the simulated active phases, the storm track activity near Newfoundland has a stronger link with the PNA variability than during the inactive phases. On average, the reanalysis datasets show no significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO indices, but during the sub-period 1973–1994 a significant anti-correlation is detected, suggesting that the present climate could correspond to an inactive period as detected in the CGCMs. An analysis of possible physical mechanisms suggests that the link between the patterns is established by the baroclinic waves forming the North Atlantic storm track. The geopotential height anomalies associated with negative PNA phases induce an increased advection of warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and cold air from Canada. Both types of advection contribute to increase baroclinicity over eastern North America and also to increase the low level latent heat content of the warm air masses. Thus, growth conditions for eddies at the entrance of the North Atlantic storm track are enhanced. Considering the average temporal development during winter for the CGCM, results show an enhanced Newfoundland storm track maximum in the early winter for negative PNA, followed by a downstream enhancement of the Atlantic storm track in the subsequent months. In active (passive) phases, this seasonal development is enhanced (suppressed). As the storm track over the central and eastern Atlantic is closely related to the NAO variability, this development can be explained by the shift of the NAO index to more positive values

Orographic effects on convective precipitation and space-time rainfall variability: preliminary results

In the EFFS Project, an attempt has been made to develop a general framework to study the predictability of severe convective rainfall events in the presence of orography. Convective activity is embedded in orographic rainfall and can be thought as the result of several physical mechanisms. Quantifying its variability on selected area and time scales requires choosing the best physical representation of the rainfall variability on these scales. The main goal was (i) to formulate a meaningful set of experiments to compute the oscillation of variance due to convection inside model forecasts in the presence of orography and (ii) to give a statistical measure of it that might be of value in the operational use of atmospheric data. The study has been limited to atmospheric scales that span the atmosphere from 2 to 200 km and has been focused on extreme events with deep convection. Suitable measures of the changing of convection in the presence of orography have been related to the physical properties of the rainfall environment. Preliminary results for the statistical variability of the convective field are presented

Competing Effect of Radiative and Moisture Feedback in Convective Aggregation States in Two CRMs

Abstract The radiative‐convective equilibrium (RCE) of two models exhibiting convective aggregation has been compared. The goal of the work, following the suggestion from the RCE Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP), is to identify key parameters controlling self‐aggregation in RCE for both models, to discuss the processes controlled by these parameters and to underline the models similarities and differences. The two cloud resolving models studied, the SAM (System for Atmospheric Modeling) and the ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System), present similar statistics concerning precipitation, but different warming, and drying of the atmosphere, within the spread of the RCEMIP values. On the other hand, the two models show different strengths of the moisture feedback, due to the different saturation of the sub‐cloud layer. A saturated sub‐cloud layer in ARPS (which was not artificially imposed in the numerical setup) allows the localization of convection in moist regions, by weakening the negative influence of cold pools. Such a mechanism leads to a lower degree of aggregation (based on three organization metrics) and a weaker effect of the organized state on the average domain statistics in ARPS. Stronger cold pools in SAM, instead, help the creation of shallow clouds in dry regions, increasing the longwave feedback responsible for their expansion; while delocalizing convection in moist regions and therefore opposing high‐cloud radiative‐feedback. Further experiments are needed to generalize such findings to other RCEMIP models, also investigating the role of microphysics and turbulence schemes in regulating such mechanisms