Supporting the externalisation of thinking in criminal intelligence analysis

At the end of the criminal intelligence analysis process there are relatively well established and understood approaches to explicit externalisation and representation of thought that include theories of argumentation, narrative and hybrid approaches that include both of these. However the focus of this paper is on the little understood area of how to support users in the process of arriving at such representations from an initial starting point where little is given. The work is based on theoretical considerations and some initial studies with end users. In focusing on process we discuss the requirements of fluidity and rigor and how to gain traction in investigations, the processes of thinking involved including abductive, deductive and inductive reasoning, how users may use thematic sorting in early stages of investigation and how tactile reasoning may be used to externalize and facilitate reasoning in a productive way. In the conclusion section we discuss the issues raised in this work and directions for future work

How analysts think: how do criminal intelligence analysts recognise and manage significant information?

The Criminal Intelligence Analyst's role is to create exhibits which are relevant, accurate and unbiased. Exhibits can be used as input to assist decision-making in intelligence-led policing. It may also be used as evidence in a court of law. The aim of this study was to determine how Criminal Intelligence Analysts recognise and manage significant information as a method to determine what is relevant for their attention and for the creation of exhibits. This in turn may provide guidance on how to design and incorporate loose and flexible argumentation schemas into sense-making software. The objective is to be informed on how to design software, which affords Criminal Intelligence Analysts with the ability to effortlessly determine the relevance of information, which subsequently could assist with the process of assessing and defending the quality of exhibits

Quality of cause of death certification at an academic hospital in Cape Town, South Africa

Objectives. To investigate the quality of cause of deathcertification and assess the level of under-reporting of HIV/AIDS as a cause of death at an academic hospital.Design. Cross-sectional descriptive retrospective review ofdeath notification forms (DNFs) of deaths due to naturalcauses in an academic hospital in Cape Town during 2004.Errors in cause of death certification and ability to code causesof death according to the 10th revision of the InternationalStatistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems(ICD-10) were assessed. The association between seriouserrors and age, gender, cause of death and hospital ward wasanalysed. A sample of DNFs (N=243) was assessed for level ofunder-reporting of HIV/AIDS.Results. A total of 983 death certificates were evaluated.Almost every DNF had a minor error; serious errors werefound in 32.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) 29.3 - 35.1%).Errors increased with patient age, and cause of death wasthe most important factor associated with serious errors.Compared with neoplasms, which had the lowest error rate,the odds ratios for errors in endocrine and metabolic diseasesand genito-urinary diseases were 17.2 (95% CI 8.7 - 34.0) and17.3 (95% CI 7.8 - 38.2), respectively. Based on the sub-sample,the minimum prevalence of HIV among the deceased patientswas 15.7% (95% CI 11.1 - 20.3%) and the under-reporting ofdeaths due to AIDS was 53.1% (95% CI 35.8 - 70.4%).Conclusion. Errors were sufficiently serious to affectidentification of underlying cause of death in almost a thirdof the DNFs, confirming the need to improve the quality ofmedical certification

How analysts think: navigating uncertainty – aspirations, considerations and strategies

While there has been considerable research in understanding the process of sense making in criminal intelligence analysis as well as the formulation of arguments in the domain of law, there remain gaps in our understanding of how to move seamlessly from the fluidity of the sense making activities to the rigour of argumentation construction. This matter is complicated further with high uncertainty which accompanies sense making and which propagates through to the rigour that accompanies argumentation. This paper attempts to understand how Criminal Intelligence Analysts navigate uncertainty from fluidity to rigour constructs and outlines some of the considerations and strategies deployed by the Criminal Intelligence Analyst to reach, or increase, certainty at a given point in time during the analysis process. This paper concludes by proposing preliminary suggestions with the aim to narrow the gaps in this journey from fluidity to rigour, at least, marginall

How can we design tactile interactive software for argument construction in criminal intelligence analysis?

Argumentation construction refers to the different ways in which people can formulate a well defined argument that can withstand scrutiny in a court of law. Different domains have enhanced the research on argumentation construction, but each enhancement relates either to ‘evidence’ or to the ‘relevance of evidence’, thus making these elements the corner stone elements of argumentation construction. By attempting to understand how Criminal Intelligence Analysts understand and manage these corner stone elements, as well as how these elements differ to the law domain counterparts, we aspire to formulate design guidelines for a software program that is tailored to how Criminal Intelligence Analysts think and argue during sense-making activities. This paper outlines the relevant literature and why the researchers consider ‘evidence’ and the ‘relevance of evidence’ as the corner stone elements of argumentation construction. The results section summarises the outcomes of two qualitative studies. The first study aims to understand how Criminal Intelligence Analysts perceive and manage uncertain information and how this eventually leads to the creation of evidence (as exhibits) for a court of law. The second study aims to understand how Criminal Intelligence Analysts know which information is relevant for the task at hand, especially when uncertainty is high. The results of the two studies still need to be combined and put into practise (as design guidelines) to test the effectiveness and validity of the results obtained in the two studies. This is listed as future work in the conclusion section

Understanding 3D mid-air hand gestures with interactive surfaces and displays: a systematic literature review

3D gesture based systems are becoming ubiquitous and there are many mid-air hand gestures that exist for interacting with digital surfaces and displays. There is no well defined gesture set for 3D mid-air hand gestures which makes it difficult to develop applications that have consistent gestures. To understand what gestures exist we conducted the first comprehensive systematic literature review on mid-air hand gestures following existing research methods. The results of the review identified 65 papers where the mid-air hand gestures supported tasks for selection, navigation, and manipulation. We also classified the gestures according to a gesture classification scheme and identified how these gestures have been empirically evaluated. The results of the review provide a richer understanding of what mid-air hand gestures have been designed, implemented, and evaluated in the literature which can help developers design better user experiences for digital interactive surfaces and displays

Microcyclospora and Microcyclosporella: novel genera accommodating epiphytic fungi causing sooty blotch on apple

Recent studies have found a wide range of ascomycetes to be associated with sooty blotch and flyspeck (SBFS) blemishes on the surfaces of pomaceous fruits, specifically apples. Based on collections of such fungi from apple orchards in Germany and Slovenia we introduce two novel genera according to analyses of morphological characters and nuclear ribosomal DNA sequences (large subunit and internal transcribed spacer regions). Microcyclosporella is represented by a single species, M. mali, and is presently known from Germany and Slovenia. Microcyclosporella is Pseudocercosporella-like in morphology, but genetically and morphologically distinct from Pseudocercosporella s.str., for which an epitype is designated based on a fresh collection of P. bakeri from Laos. Furthermore, Pseudocercosporella is shown to be paraphyletic within the Capnodiales. Microcyclospora gen. nov. is Pseudocercospora-like in morphology, but is genetically and morphologically distinct from Pseudocercospora s.str., which is based on P. vitis. Three species, Microcyclospora malicola, M. pomicola (both collected in Germany), and M. tardicrescens (collected in Slovenia) are described. Finally, a new species of Devriesia, D. pseudoamericana, is described from pome fruit surfaces collected in Germany. Devriesia is shown to be paraphyletic, and to represent several lineages of which only Devriesia s.str. is thermotolerant. Further collections are required, however, before the latter generic complex can be resolved

Peel and peel again

Aim: To determine if the internal limiting membrane (ILM) was present in the epiretinal membrane (ERM) when we deliberately tried to perform a "double peel" for macular pucker. Methods: Pars-plana vitrectomy and a "double peel" were carried out. The ERM and ILM were stained with Trypan Blue and peeled separately over the same area. The amount of ERM present in ILM specimens and the amount of ILM present in ERM specimens were evaluated by histological examination. Results: Seventeen eyes in 17 patients were included. It was possible to double peel in all cases. Five of 17 ERM specimens (29%) contained ILM fragments. When ILM was present on the ERM, it represented less than 50% of the sample. One ILM specimen was lost as result of an administrative error; of the remaining 16 specimens, residual ERM was found in six, and cellular remnants were observed on the vitreous surface in a further six of the ILMs. Clinically, no recurrence of ERM was found. Conclusion: ILM was present in some ERM specimens seemingly over the same area that an intact ILM was subsequently peel. We speculate that the ILM in the ERM represent a secondary basement membrane and that the surgical plane of dissection for most ERM peel is between the ERM and the native ILM, making it feasible to double peel routinely.published_or_final_versio

Emerging trends in non-communicable disease mortality in South Africa, 1997 - 2010

Objectives. National trends in age-standardised death rates (ASDRs) for non communicable diseases (NCDs) in South Africa (SA) were identified between 1997 and 2010.Methods. As part of the second National Burden of Disease Study, vital registration data were used after validity checks, proportional redistribution of missing age, sex and population group, demographic adjustments for registration incompleteness, and identification of misclassified AIDS deaths. Garbage codes were redistributed proportionally to specified codes by age, sex and population group. ASDRs were calculated using mid-year population estimates and the World Health Organization world standard.Results. Of 594 071 deaths in 2010, 38.9% were due to NCDs (42.6% females). ASDRs were 287/100 000 for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), 114/100 000 for cancers (malignant neoplasms), 58/100 000 for chronic respiratory conditions and 52/100 000 for diabetes mellitus. An overall annual decrease of 0.4% was observed resulting from declines in stroke, ischaemic heart disease, oesophageal and lung cancer, asthma and chronic respiratory disease, while increases were observed for diabetes mellitus, renal disease, endocrine and nutritional disorders, and breast and prostate cancers. Stroke was the leading NCD cause of death, accounting for 17.5% of total NCD deaths. Compared with those for whites, NCD mortality rates for other population groups were higher at 1.3 for black Africans, 1.4 for Indians and 1.4 for coloureds, but varied by condition.Conclusions. NCDs contribute to premature mortality in SA, threatening socioeconomic development. While NCD mortality rates have decreased slightly, it is necessary to strengthen prevention and healthcare provision and monitor emerging trends in cause-specific mortality to inform these strategies if the target of 2% annual decline is to be achieved

Lost in translation? Standardising the terminology used in marine invasion biology and updating South African alien species lists

Confusion between terms and ambiguities among definitions have long plagued the field of invasion biology. One result is disruption in flow of information from researchers to policy-makers and managers who rely on science to inform regulatory frameworks and management actions. We reviewed the South African marine biology literature to quantify the current usage of terminology describing marine invasions and found a variety of terms in use, few of which are defined when used. In response, we propose standard terminology that aligns with international practice. We then interpreted the Blackburn unified framework for biological invasions within the marine context and used this as a transparent way to apply the standardised terms to an updated list of marine alien species for the country. This resulted in the recognition of 36 alien and 53 invasive species within South Africa. Most notably, follow-up research is required to confirm the status of at least 11 listed species, the majority of which have been recorded only once, or not in the past 25 years. It is hoped that by standardising terminology, marine science in South Africa will better support authorities charged with managing the threat posed by marine alien species