Efficient Methods to Assimilate Satellite Retrievals Based on Information Content

One of the outstanding problems in data assimilation has been and continues to be how best to utilize satellite data while balancing the tradeoff between accuracy and computational cost. A number of weather prediction centers have recently achieved remarkable success in improving their forecast skill by changing the method by which satellite data are assimilated into the forecast model from the traditional approach of assimilating retrievals to the direct assimilation of radiances in a variational framework. The operational implementation of such a substantial change in methodology involves a great number of technical details, e.g., pertaining to quality control procedures, systematic error correction techniques, and tuning of the statistical parameters in the analysis algorithm. Although there are clear theoretical advantages to the direct radiance assimilation approach, it is not obvious at all to what extent the improvements that have been obtained so far can be attributed to the change in methodology, or to various technical aspects of the implementation. The issue is of interest because retrieval assimilation retains many practical and logistical advantages which may become even more significant in the near future when increasingly high-volume data sources become available. The central question we address here is: how much improvement can we expect from assimilating radiances rather than retrievals, all other things being equal? We compare the two approaches in a simplified one-dimensional theoretical framework, in which problems related to quality control and systematic error correction are conveniently absent. By assuming a perfect radiative transfer model and perfect knowledge of radiance and background error covariances, we are able to formulate a nonlinear local error analysis for each assimilation method. Direct radiance assimilation is optimal in this idealized context, while the traditional method of assimilating retrievals is suboptimal because it ignores the cross-covariances between background errors and retrieval errors. We show that interactive retrieval assimilation (where the same background used for assimilation is also used in the retrieval step) is equivalent to direct assimilation of radiances with suboptimal analysis weights. We illustrate and extend these theoretical arguments with several one-dimensional assimilation experiments, where we estimate vertical atmospheric profiles using simulated data from both the High-resolution InfraRed Sounder 2 (HIRS2) and the future Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS)

Sex Ratio is Variable and Increasingly Male Biased at Two Colonies of Magellanic Penguins

Sex ratios are commonly skewed and variable in wild populations, but few studies track temporal trends in this demographic parameter. We examined variation in the operational sex ratio at two protected and declining breeding colonies of Magellanic Penguins (Spheniscus magellanicus) in Chubut, Argentina. Penguins from the two colonies, separated by 105 km, migrate north in the non‐breeding season and have overlapping distributions at sea. Conditions during the non‐breeding season can impact long‐term trends in operational sex ratio (i.e., through sex‐specific survival) and interannual variation in operational sex ratio (i.e., through sex‐specific breeding decisions). We found an increasingly male‐biased operational sex ratio at the two disparate colonies of Magellanic Penguins, which may contribute to continued population decline. We also found that the two colonies showed synchronous interannual variation in operational sex ratio, driven by variation in the number of females present each year. This pattern may be linked to sex‐specific overwintering effects that cause females to skip breeding, i.e., to remain at sea rather than returning to the colony to breed, more often than males. Contrary to our predictions, colony‐wide reproductive success was not lower in years with a more male‐biased operational sex ratio. We did find that males showed more evidence of fighting and were less likely to pair when the operational sex ratio was more male biased. Our results highlight an indirect mechanism through which variation in the operational sex ratio can influence populations, through a higher incidence of fighting among the less abundant sex. Because biased sex ratios can reduce the size of the breeding population and influence rates of conflict, tracking operational sex ratio is critical for conservation

Embedded library services : beyond chance encounters for students from low SES backgrounds

This paper reports research that examined how the embedding of library services through the learning management system contributed to the experience of students from low socio-economic status (SES) backgrounds. To evaluate the embedded practice, the researchers used a mixed-method approach involving surveys with students and interviews with library and academic staff. Survey results showed gains in students\u27 awareness of library resources and in their confidence and satisfaction using them. Staff participants reported benefits to students from the improved visibility of the library and involvement of students in conversations about information literacy. The teacher derived personal benefits in learning more about digital information resources while library staff benefitted from the research-driven nature of the practice which strengthened their collaborative partnership with academic staff. Based on the evaluation, an embedded approach has been adopted at the university in additional courses which have similar student profiles. The outcomes are relevant more widely in demonstrating both the potential benefits of embedded practice for supporting diverse student populations and how libraries can target their activities more effectively to national and university agendas for improving student outcomes

New exact fronts for the nonlinear diffusion equation with quintic nonlinearities

We consider travelling wave solutions of the reaction diffusion equation with quintic nonlinearities $u_t = u_{xx} + \mu u (1 -u ) ( 1 +\alpha u + \beta u^2 +\gamma u^3)$. If the parameters $\alpha , \beta$ and $\gamma$ obey a special relation, then the criterion for the existence of a strong heteroclinic connection can be expressed in terms of two of these parameters. If an additional restriction is imposed, explicit front solutions can be obtained. The approach used can be extended to polynomials whose highest degree is odd.Comment: Revtex, 5 page

Renormalization Group Theory And Variational Calculations For Propagating Fronts

We study the propagation of uniformly translating fronts into a linearly unstable state, both analytically and numerically. We introduce a perturbative renormalization group (RG) approach to compute the change in the propagation speed when the fronts are perturbed by structural modification of their governing equations. This approach is successful when the fronts are structurally stable, and allows us to select uniquely the (numerical) experimentally observable propagation speed. For convenience and completeness, the structural stability argument is also briefly described. We point out that the solvability condition widely used in studying dynamics of nonequilibrium systems is equivalent to the assumption of physical renormalizability. We also implement a variational principle, due to Hadeler and Rothe, which provides a very good upper bound and, in some cases, even exact results on the propagation speeds, and which identifies the transition from ` linear'- to ` nonlinear-marginal-stability' as parameters in the governing equation are varied.Comment: 34 pages, plain tex with uiucmac.tex. Also available by anonymous ftp to gijoe.mrl.uiuc.edu (128.174.119.153), file /pub/front_RG.tex (or .ps.Z

On the validity of the linear speed selection mechanism for fronts of the nonlinear diffusion equation

We consider the problem of the speed selection mechanism for the one dimensional nonlinear diffusion equation $u_t = u_{xx} + f(u)$. It has been rigorously shown by Aronson and Weinberger that for a wide class of functions $f$, sufficiently localized initial conditions evolve in time into a monotonic front which propagates with speed $c^*$ such that $2 \sqrt{f'(0)} \leq c^* < 2 \sqrt{\sup(f(u)/u)}$. The lower value $c_L = 2 \sqrt{f'(0)}$ is that predicted by the linear marginal stability speed selection mechanism. We derive a new lower bound on the the speed of the selected front, this bound depends on $f$ and thus enables us to assess the extent to which the linear marginal selection mechanism is valid.Comment: 9 pages, REVTE

Multiple Front Propagation Into Unstable States

The dynamics of transient patterns formed by front propagation in extended nonequilibrium systems is considered. Under certain circumstances, the state left behind a front propagating into an unstable homogeneous state can be an unstable periodic pattern. It is found by a numerical solution of a model of the Fr\'eedericksz transition in nematic liquid crystals that the mechanism of decay of such periodic unstable states is the propagation of a second front which replaces the unstable pattern by a another unstable periodic state with larger wavelength. The speed of this second front and the periodicity of the new state are analytically calculated with a generalization of the marginal stability formalism suited to the study of front propagation into periodic unstable states. PACS: 47.20.Ky, 03.40.Kf, 47.54.+rComment: 12 page

Preferences and skills of Indian public sector teachers

With a sample of 700 future public sector primary teachers in India, a Discrete Choice Experiment is used to measure job preferences, particularly regarding location. General skills are also tested. Urban origin teachers and women are more averse to remote locations than rural origin teachers and men respectively. Women would require a 26-73 percent increase in salary for moving to a remote location. The results suggest that existing caste and gender quotas can be detrimental for hiring skilled teachers willing to work in remote locations. The most preferred location is home, which supports decentralised hiring, although this could compromise skills