Reproducibility of the Oxford classification of immunoglobulin A nephropathy, impact of biopsy scoring on treatment allocation and clinical relevance of disagreements: Evidence from the VALidation of IGA study cohort

Background: The VALidation of IGA (VALIGA) study investigated the utility of the Oxford Classification of immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) in 1147 patients from 13 European countries. Methods. Biopsies were scored by local pathologists followed by central review in Oxford. We had two distinct objectives: to assess how closely pathology findings were associated with the decision to give corticosteroid/immunosuppressive (CS/IS) treatments, and to determine the impact of differences in MEST-C scoring between central and local pathologists on the clinical value of the Oxford Classification. We tested for each lesion the associations between the type of agreement (local and central pathologists scoring absent, local present and central absent, local absent and central present, both scoring present) with the initial clinical assessment, as well as long-term outcomes in those patients who did not receive CS/IS. Results: All glomerular lesions (M, E, C and S) assessed by local pathologists were independently associated with the decision to administer CS/IS therapy, while the severity of tubulointerstitial lesions was not. Reproducibility between local and central pathologists was moderate for S (segmental sclerosis) and T (tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis), and poor for M (mesangial hypercellularity), E (endocapillary hypercellularity) and C (crescents). Local pathologists found statistically more of each lesion, except for the S lesion, which was more frequent with central review. Disagreements were more likely to occur when the proportion of glomeruli affected was low. The M lesion, assessed by central pathologists, correlated better with the severity of the disease at presentation and discriminated better with outcomes. In contrast, the E lesion, evaluated by local pathologists, correlated better with the clinical presentation and outcomes when compared with central review. Both C and S lesions, when discordant between local and central pathologists, had a clinical phenotype intermediate to double absent lesions (milder disease) and double present (more severe). Conclusion: We conclude that differences in the scoring of MEST-C criteria between local pathologists and a central reviewer have a significant impact on the prognostic value of the Oxford Classification. Since the decision to offer immunosuppressive therapy in this cohort was intimately associated with the MEST-C score, this study indicates a need for a more detailed guidance for pathologists in the scoring of IgAN biopsies

Is there long-term value of pathology scoring in immunoglobulin A nephropathy? A validation study of the Oxford Classification for IgA Nephropathy (VALIGA) update

Background: It is unknown whether renal pathology lesions in immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) correlate with renal outcomes over decades of follow-up. Methods: In 1130 patients of the original Validation Study of the Oxford Classification for IgA Nephropathy (VALIGA) cohort, we studied the relationship between the MEST score (mesangial hypercellularity, M; endocapillary hypercellularity, E; segmental glomerulosclerosis, S; tubular atrophy/interstitial fibrosis, T), crescents (C) and other histological lesions with both a combined renal endpoint [50% estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) loss or kidney failure] and the rate of eGFR decline over a follow-up period extending to 35 years [median 7 years (interquartile range 4.1-10.8)]. Results: In this extended analysis, M1, S1 and T1-T2 lesions as well as the whole MEST score were independently related with the combined endpoint (P < 0.01), and there was no effect modification by age for these associations, suggesting that they may be valid in children and in adults as well. Only T lesions were associated with the rate of eGFR loss in the whole cohort, whereas C showed this association only in patients not treated with immunosuppression. In separate prognostic analyses, the whole set of pathology lesions provided a gain in discrimination power over the clinical variables alone, which was similar at 5 years (+2.0%) and for the whole follow-up (+1.8%). A similar benefit was observed for risk reclassification analyses (+2.7% and +2.4%). Conclusion: Long-term follow-up analyses of the VALIGA cohort showed that the independent relationship between kidney biopsy findings and the risk of progression towards kidney failure in IgAN remains unchanged across all age groups and decades after the renal biopsy

Evidence from the large VALIGA cohort validates the subclassification of focal segmental glomerulosclerosis in IgA nephropathy

Evidence from the Oxford IgA nephropathy (IgAN) cohort supports the clinical value of subclassifying focal segmental glomerulosclerosis lesions (S1). Using the larger Validation in IgA (VALIGA) study cohort, we investigated the association between podocytopathic changes and higher proteinuria, kidney outcome and response to immunosuppressive therapy. All biopsies were evaluated for glomeruli with segmental capillary occlusion by matrix (“not otherwise specified”, NOS lesion), simple capsular adhesion without capillary occlusion (Adh), tip lesions, and podocyte hypertrophy (PH). S1 required a NOS lesion and/or Adh. A Chi-Squared Automatic Interaction Detection method was used to identify subgroups of FSGS lesions associated with distinctive proteinuria at biopsy. We assessed survival from a combined event (kidney failure or 50% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate). Finally, we evaluated within each subgroup if immunosuppression was associated with a favorable outcome using propensity analysis. In 1147 patients, S1 was found in 70% of biopsies. Subclassification found NOS lesions in 44%, Adh in 59%, PH in 13%, and tip lesions in 3%, with much overlap. Four subgroups were identified with progressively higher proteinuria: from lowest, S1 without NOS, S1 with NOS but without Adh/PH, to highest, S1 with NOS and Adh but without PH, and S1 with NOS and PH. These four subgroups showed progressively worse kidney survival. Immunosuppression was associated with a better outcome only in the two highest proteinuria subgroups. Propensity analysis in these two groups, adjusted for clinical and pathological findings, found a significantly reduced time-dependent hazard of combined outcome with corticosteroids. Podocyte hypertrophy and glomeruli with simple adhesions appeared to reflect active lesions associated with a response to corticosteroids, while other S1 lesions defined chronicity. Thus, our findings support subclassifying S1 lesions in IgAN

Development and testing of an artificial intelligence tool for predicting end-stage kidney disease in patients with immunoglobulin A nephropathy

We have developed an artificial neural network prediction model for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in patients with primary immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) using a retrospective cohort of 948 patients with IgAN. Our tool is based on a two-step procedure of a classifier model that predicts ESKD, and a regression model that predicts development of ESKD over time. The classifier model showed a performance value of 0.82 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) in patients with a follow-up of five years, which improved to 0.89 at the ten-year follow-up. Both models had a higher recall rate, which indicated the practicality of the tool. The regression model showed a mean absolute error of 1.78 years and a root mean square error of 2.15 years. Testing in an independent cohort of 167patients with IgAN found successful results for 91% of the patients. Comparison of our system with other mathematical models showed the highest discriminant Harrell C index at five- and ten-years follow-up (81% and 86%, respectively), paralleling the lowest Akaike information criterion values (355.01 and 269.56, respectively). Moreover, our system was the best calibrated model indicating that the predicted and observed outcome probabilities did not significantly differ. Finally, the dynamic discrimination indexes of our artificial neural network, expressed as the weighted average of time-dependent areas under the curve calculated at one and two years, were 0.80 and 0.79, respectively. Similar results were observed over a 25-year follow-up period. Thus, our tool identified individuals who were at a high risk of developing ESKD due to IgAN and predicted the time-to-event endpoint. Accurate prediction is an important step toward introduction of a therapeutic strategy for improving clinical outcomes

Development and testing of an artificial intelligence tool for predicting end-stage kidney disease in patients with immunoglobulin A nephropathy

We have developed an artificial neural network prediction model for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in patients with primary immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) using a retrospective cohort of 948 patients with IgAN. Our tool is based on a two-step procedure of a classifier model that predicts ESKD, and a regression model that predicts development of ESKD over time. The classifier model showed a performance value of 0.82 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) in patients with a follow-up of five years, which improved to 0.89 at the ten-year follow-up. Both models had a higher recall rate, which indicated the practicality of the tool. The regression model showed a mean absolute error of 1.78 years and a root mean square error of 2.15 years. Testing in an independent cohort of 167patients with IgAN found successful results for 91% of the patients. Comparison of our system with other mathematical models showed the highest discriminant Harrell C index at five- and ten-years follow-up (81% and 86%, respectively), paralleling the lowest Akaike information criterion values (355.01 and 269.56, respectively). Moreover, our system was the best calibrated model indicating that the predicted and observed outcome probabilities did not significantly differ. Finally, the dynamic discrimination indexes of our artificial neural network, expressed as the weighted average of time-dependent areas under the curve calculated at one and two years, were 0.80 and 0.79, respectively. Similar results were observed over a 25-year follow-up period. Thus, our tool identified individuals who were at a high risk of developing ESKD due to IgAN and predicted the time-to-event endpoint. Accurate prediction is an important step toward introduction of a therapeutic strategy for improving clinical outcomes

Heart failure in Europe: Guideline-directed medical therapy use and decision making in chronic and acute, pre-existing and de novo, heart failure with reduced, mildly reduced, and preserved ejection fraction – the ESC EORP Heart Failure III Registry

Aims We analysed baseline characteristics and guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) use and decisions in theEuropean Society of Cardiology (ESC) Heart Failure (HF) III Registry. Methods and results Between1November 2018and31December 2020,10162 patients with acute HF (AHF, 39%, age 70 [62-79],36% women) or outpatient visit for HF (61%, age 66 [58-75], 33% women), with HF with reduced (HFrEF, 57%),mildly reduced (HFmrEF,17%) or preserved (HFpEF, 26%) ejection fraction were enrolled from 220 centres in 41European or ESC-affiliated countries. With AHF, 97% were hospitalized, 2.2% received intravenous treatment in theemergency department, and 0.9% received intravenous treatment in an outpatient clinic. AHF was seen by most bya general cardiologist (51%) and outpatient HF most by a HF specialist (48%). A majority had been hospitalized forHF before, but 26% of AHF and 6.1% of outpatient HF had de novo HF. Baseline use, initiation and discontinuation ofGDMT varied according to AHF versus outpatient HF, de novo versus pre-existing HF, and by ejection fraction. Afterthe AHF event or outpatient HF visit, use of any renin-angiotensin system inhibitor, angiotensin receptor-neprilysininhibitor, beta-blocker, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist and loop diuretics was 89%, 29%, 92%, 78%, and 85%in HFrEF; 89%, 9.7%, 90%, 64%, and 81% in HFmrEF; and 77%, 3.1%, 80%, 48%, and 80% in HFpEF. ConclusionUse and initiation of GDMT was high in cardiology centres in Europe, compared to previous reports from cohortsand registries including more primary care and general medicine and regions more local or outside of Europe andESC-affiliated countries....................................

Quantifying duration of proteinuria remission and association with clinical outcome in IgA nephropathy

Background On the basis of findings of observational studies and a meta-analysis, proteinuria reduction has been proposed as a surrogate outcome in IgA nephropathy. How long a reduction in proteinuria needs to be maintained to mitigate the long-term risk of disease progression is unknown. Methods In this retrospective multiethnic cohort of adult patients with IgA nephropathy, we defined proteinuria remission as a $25% reduction in proteinuria from the peak value after biopsy, and an absolute reduction in proteinuria to,1 g/d. The exposure of interest was the total duration of first remission, treated as a time-varying covariate using longitudinal proteinuria measurements. We used time-dependent Cox proportional hazards regression models to quantify the association between the duration of remission and the primary outcome (ESKD or a 50% reduction in eGFR). Results During a median follow-up of 3.9 years, 274 of 1864 patients (14.7%) experienced the primary outcome. The relationship between duration of proteinuria remission and outcome was nonlinear. Each 3 months in sustained remission up to approximately 4 years was associated with an additional 9% reduction in the risk of disease progression (hazard ratio [HR], 0.91; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.89 to 0.93). Thereafter, each additional 3 months in remission was associated with a smaller, nonsignificant risk reduction (HR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.96 to 1.03). These findings were robust to multivariable adjustment and consistent across clinical and histologic subgroups. Conclusions Our findings support the use of proteinuria as a surrogate outcome in IgA nephropathy, but additionally demonstrate the value of quantifying the duration of proteinuria remission when estimating the risk of hard clinical endpoints