Excess open solar magnetic flux from satellite data: 1. Analysis of the third perihelion Ulysses pass

We use the third perihelion pass by the Ulysses spacecraft to illustrate and investigate the “flux excess” effect, whereby open solar flux estimates from spacecraft increase with increasing heliocentric distance. We analyze the potential effects of small-scale structure in the heliospheric field (giving fluctuations in the radial component on timescales smaller than 1 h) and kinematic time-of-flight effects of longitudinal structure in the solar wind flow. We show that the flux excess is explained by neither very small-scale structure (timescales 1 day) solar wind speed variations on the frozen-in heliospheric field. We show that averaging over an interval T (that is long enough to eliminate structure originating in the heliosphere yet small enough to avoid cancelling opposite polarity radial field that originates from genuine sector structure in the coronal source field) is only an approximately valid way of allowing for these effects and does not adequately explain or account for differences between the streamer belt and the polar coronal holes

Excess open solar magnetic flux from satellite data: 2. A survey of kinematic effects

We investigate the “flux excess” effect, whereby open solar flux estimates from spacecraft increase with increasing heliocentric distance. We analyze the kinematic effect on these open solar flux estimates of large-scale longitudinal structure in the solar wind flow, with particular emphasis on correcting estimates made using data from near-Earth satellites. We show that scatter, but no net bias, is introduced by the kinematic “bunching effect” on sampling and that this is true for both compression and rarefaction regions. The observed flux excesses, as a function of heliocentric distance, are shown to be consistent with open solar flux estimates from solar magnetograms made using the potential field source surface method and are well explained by the kinematic effect of solar wind speed variations on the frozen-in heliospheric field. Applying this kinematic correction to the Omni-2 interplanetary data set shows that the open solar flux at solar minimum fell from an annual mean of 3.82 × 1016 Wb in 1987 to close to half that value (1.98 × 1016 Wb) in 2007, making the fall in the minimum value over the last two solar cycles considerably faster than the rise inferred from geomagnetic activity observations over four solar cycles in the first half of the 20th century

An adaptive, hanging-node, discontinuous isogeometric analysis method for the first-order form of the neutron transport equation with discrete ordinate (SN) angular discretisation

In this paper a discontinuous, hanging-node, isogeometric analysis (IGA) method is developed and applied to the first-order form of the neutron transport equation with a discrete ordinate (SN) angular discretisation in two-dimensional space. The complexities involved in upwinding across curved element boundaries that contain hanging-nodes have been addressed to ensure that the scheme remains conservative. A robust algorithm for cycle-breaking has also been introduced in order to develop a unique sweep ordering of the elements for each discrete ordinates direction. The convergence rate of the scheme has been verified using the method of manufactured solutions (MMS) with a smooth solution. Heuristic error indicators have been used to drive an adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) algorithm to take advantage of the hanging-node discretisation. The effectiveness of this method is demonstrated for three test cases. The first is a homogeneous square in a vacuum with varying mean free path and a prescribed extraneous unit source. The second test case is a radiation shielding problem and the third is a 3×3 “supercell” featuring a burnable absorber. In the final test case, comparisons are made to the discontinuous Galerkin finite element method (DGFEM) using both straight-sided and curved quadratic finite elements

The Rapidly Fading Optical Afterglow of GRB 980519

GRB 980519 had the most rapidly fading of the well-documented GRB afterglows, consistent with t^{-2.05 +/- 0.04} in BVRI as well as in X-rays during the two days in which observations were made. We report VRI observations from the MDM 1.3m and WIYN 3.5m telescopes, and we synthesize an optical spectrum from all of the available photometry. The optical spectrum alone is well fitted by a power law of the form nu^{-1.20 +/- 0.25}, with some of the uncertainty due to the significant Galactic reddening in this direction. The optical and X-ray spectra together are adequately fitted by a single power law nu^{-1.05 +/- 0.10}. This combination of steep temporal decay and flat broad-band spectrum places a severe strain on the simplest afterglow models involving spherical blast waves in a homogeneous medium. Instead, the rapid observed temporal decay is more consistent with models of expansion into a medium of density n(r) proportional to r^{-2}, or with predictions of the evolution of a jet after it slows down and spreads laterally. The jet model would relax the energy requirements on some of the more extreme GRBs, of which GRB 980519 is likely to be an example because of its large gamma-ray fluence and faint host galaxy.Comment: 13 pages, submitted to ApJ Letter

Adaption of evolutionary programming to the prediction of solar flares

Adapting evolutionary programming to prediction of solar flare

Predicting space climate change

The recent decline in the open magnetic flux of the Sun heralds the end of the Grand Solar Maximum (GSM) that has persisted throughout the space age, during which the largest‐fluence Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events have been rare and Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) fluxes have been relatively low. In the absence of a predictive model of the solar dynamo, we here make analogue forecasts by studying past variations of solar activity in order to evaluate how long‐term change in space climate may influence the hazardous energetic particle environment of the Earth in the future. We predict the probable future variations in GCR flux, near‐Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), sunspot number, and the probability of large SEP events, all deduced from cosmogenic isotope abundance changes following 24 GSMs in a 9300‐year record

Observational Prospects for Afterglows of Short Duration Gamma-ray Bursts

If the efficiency for producing $\gamma$-rays is the same in short duration (\siml 2 s) Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs) as in long duration GRBs, then the average kinetic energy of short GRBs must be $\sim 20$ times less than that of long GRBs. Assuming further that the relativistic shocks in short and long duration GRBs have similar parameters, we show that the afterglows of short GRBs will be on average 10--40 times dimmer than those of long GRBs. We find that the afterglow of a typical short GRB will be below the detection limit (\siml 10 \microJy) of searches at radio frequencies. The afterglow would be difficult to observe also in the optical, where we predict R \simg 23 a few hours after the burst. The radio and optical afterglow would be even fainter if short GRBs occur in a low-density medium, as expected in NS-NS and NS-BH merger models. The best prospects for detecting short-GRB afterglows are with early (\siml 1 day) observations in X-rays.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, submitted to ApJ lette

Precision Timing of Two Anomalous X-Ray Pulsars

We report on long-term X-ray timing of two anomalous X-ray pulsars, 1RXS J170849.0-400910 and 1E 2259+586, using the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer. In monthly observations made over 1.4 yr and 2.6 yr for the two pulsars, respectively, we have obtained phase-coherent timing solutions which imply that these objects have been rotating with great stability throughout the course of our observations. For 1RXS J170849.0-400910, we find a rotation frequency of 0.0909169331(5) Hz and frequency derivative -15.687(4) x 10^(-14) Hz/s, for epoch MJD 51215.931. For 1E 2259+586, we find a rotation frequency of 0.1432880613(2)Hz, and frequency derivative -1.0026(7) x 10^(-14) Hz/s, for epoch MJD 51195.583. RMS phase residuals from these simple models are only about 0.01 cycles for both sources. We show that the frequency derivative for 1E 2259+586 is inconsistent with that inferred from incoherent frequency observations made over the last 20 yr. Our observations are consistent with the magnetar hypothesis and make binary accretion scenarios appear unlikely.Comment: 12 pages including 3 figures. To appear in ApJ Letter

Spectral Transition and Torque Reversal in X-ray Pulsar 4U 1626-67

The accretion-powered, X-ray pulsar 4U 1626-67 has recently shown an abrupt torque reversal accompanied by a dramatic spectral transition and a relatively small luminosity change. The time-averaged X-ray spectrum during spin-down is considerably harder than during spin-up. The observed torque reversal can be explained by an accretion flow transition triggered by a gradual change in the mass accretion rate. The sudden transition to spin-down is caused by a change in the accretion flow rotation from Keplerian to sub-Keplerian. 4U 1626-67 is estimated to be near spin equilibrium with a mass accretion rate Mdot~2x10**16 g/s, Mdot decreasing at a rate ~6x10**14 g/s/yr, and a polar surface magnetic field of ~2b_p**{-1/2} 10^**12G where b_p is the magnetic pitch. During spin-up, the Keplerian flow remains geometrically thin and cool. During spin-down, the sub-Keplerian flow becomes geometrically thick and hot. Soft photons from near the stellar surface are Compton up-scattered by the hot accretion flow during spin-down while during spin-up such scattering is unlikely due to the small scale-height and low temperature of the flow. This mechanism accounts for the observed spectral hardening and small luminosity change. The scattering occurs in a hot radially falling column of material with a scattering depth ~0.3 and a temperature ~10^9K. The X-ray luminosity at energies >5keV could be a poor indicator of the mass accretion rate. We briefly discuss the possible application of this mechanism to GX 1+4, although there are indications that this system is significantly different from other torque-reversal systems.Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure, ApJ