A Dynamic Model of Differential Human Capital and Criminal Activity

This paper presents a new, dynamic economic model of criminal activity. Individuals are endowed with legal and criminal human capital. Potential incomes in legal and criminal sectors depend on the level of the relevant human capital, the rate of return, and random shocks. Both types of human capital can be enhanced by participating in the relevant sector. Legal human capital can also be enhanced through savings. Each type of human capital is subject to depreciation. Individuals maximize expected discounted lifetime utility, which depends on consumption. In this two-stage dynamic stochastic model, in each period the individual decides in which sector to participate (legal or illegal), and after the realization of income in that period, he decides on the optimal amount of consumption. A particular decision (e.g. participation in the criminal sector) has implications both for future decisions as well as the choices available to the individual in later periods. The model allows analyses of the effects of recessions, neighborhood effects, various imprisonment/rehabilitation scenarios, risk aversion, and time preferences on criminal behavior. It provides new insights, which are different from existing models, and it is able to explain the declining propensity of individuals to commit crimes over time.

Opportunities and challenges for GeoBIM in Europe: developing a building permits use-case to raise awareness and examine technical interoperability challenges

The integration of geoinformation with BIM (GeoBIM) is critical to underpin solutions to many city-related challenges. However, to achieve an effective integration it is necessary to consider not only data and technical options but also current practice and users’ needs. This paper describes work carried out within the EuroSDR-GeoBIM project to address this challenge. After investigating potential uses for GeoBIM and existing challenges, we address a planning permits for buildings use case, to help bridging the gap between theory and practice. The resultshighlights a high-level harmonised workflow envisaging the use of GeoBIM information for automating the planning permits process

Arctic sea-ice change: a grand challenge of climate science

Over the period of modern satellite observations, Arctic sea-ice extent at the end of the melt season (September) has declined at a rate of >11% per decade, and there is evidence that the rate of decline has accelerated during the last decade.While climate models project further decreases in seaice mass and extent through the 21st century, the model ensemble mean trend over the period of instrumental records is smaller than observed. Possible reasons for the apparent discrepancy between observations and model simulations include observational uncertainties, vigorous unforced climate variability in the high latitudes, and limitations and shortcomings of the models stemming in particular from gaps in understanding physical process. The economic significance of a seasonally sea-ice-free future Arctic, the increased connectivity of a warmer Arctic with changes in global climate, and large uncertainties in magnitude and timing of these impacts make the problem of rapid sea-ice loss in the Arctic a grand challenge of climate science. Meaningful prediction/projection of the Arctic sea-ice conditions for the coming decades and beyond requires determining priorities for observations and model development, evaluation of the ability of climate models to reproduce the observed sea-ice behavior as a part of the broader climate system, improved attribution of the causes of Arctic sea-ice change, and improved understanding of the predictability of sea-ice conditions on seasonal through centennial timescales in the wider context of the polar climate predictability

Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature via the DOI in this record.The Arctic region has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average — a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification. The rapid Arctic warming has contributed to dramatic melting of Arctic sea ice and spring snow cover, at a pace greater than that simulated by climate models. These profound changes to the Arctic system have coincided with a period of ostensibly more frequent extreme weather events across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, including severe winters. The possibility of a link between Arctic change and mid-latitude weather has spurred research activities that reveal three potential dynamical pathways linking Arctic amplification to mid-latitude weather: changes in storm tracks, the jet stream, and planetary waves and their associated energy propagation. Through changes in these key atmospheric features, it is possible, in principle, for sea ice and snow cover to jointly influence mid-latitude weather. However, because of incomplete knowledge of how high-latitude climate change influences these phenomena, combined with sparse and short data records, and imperfect models, large uncertainties regarding the magnitude of such an influence remain. We conclude that improved process understanding, sustained and additional Arctic observations, and better coordinated modelling studies will be needed to advance our understanding of the influences on mid-latitude weather and extreme events

Identification of the factors associated with outcomes in a condition management programme

<p>Background: A requirement of the Government’s Pathways to Work (PtW) agenda was to introduce a Condition Management Programme (CMP). The aim of the present study was to identify the differences between those who engaged and made progress in this telephone-based biopsychosocial intervention, in terms of their health, and those who did not and to determine the client and practitioner characteristics and programme elements associated with success in a programme aimed at improving health.</p> <p>Methods: Data were obtained from the CMP electronic spreadsheets and clients paper-based case records. CMP standard practice was that questionnaires were administered during the pre- and post-assessment phases over the telephone. Each client’s record contains their socio-demographic data, their primary health condition, as well as the pre- and post-intervention scores of the health assessment tool administered. Univariate and multivariate statistical analysis was used to investigate the relationships between the database variables. Clients were included in the study if their records were available for analysis from July 2006 to December 2007.</p> <p> Results: On average there were 112 referrals per month, totalling 2016 referrals during the evaluation period. The majority (62.8%) of clients had a mental-health condition. Successful completion of the programme was 28.5% (575 “completers”; 144 “discharges”). Several factors, such as age, health condition, mode of contact, and practitioner characteristics, were significant determinants of participation and completion of the programme. The results showed that completion of the CMP was associated with a better mental-health status, by reducing the number of clients that were either anxious, depressed or both, before undertaking the programme, from 74% to 32.5%.</p> <p>Conclusions: Our findings showed that an individual's characteristics are associated with success in the programme, defined as completing the intervention and demonstrating an improved health status. This study provides some evidence that the systematic evaluation of such programmes and interventions could identify ways in which they could be improved.</p&gt

Opportunities and challenges for GeoBIM in Europe: developing a building permits use-case to raise awareness and examine technical interoperability challenges

The integration of geoinformation with BIM (GeoBIM) is critical to underpin solutions to many city-related challenges. However, to achieve an effective integration it is necessary to consider not only data and technical options but also current practice and users’ needs. This paper describes work carried out within the EuroSDR-GeoBIM project to address this challenge. After investigating potential uses for GeoBIM and existing challenges, we address a planning permits for buildings use case, to help bridging the gap between theory and practice. The resultshighlights a high-level harmonised workflow envisaging the use of GeoBIM information for automating the planning permits process

Selecting CMIP5 GCMs for downscaling over multiple regions

The unprecedented availability of 6-hourly data from a multi-model GCM ensemble in the CMIP5 data archive presents the new opportunity to dynamically downscale multiple GCMs to develop high-resolution climate projections relevant to detailed assessment of climate vulnerability and climate change impacts. This enables the development of high resolution projections derived from the same set of models that are used to characterise the range of future climate changes at the global and large-scale, and as assessed in the IPCC AR5. However, the technical and human resource required to dynamically-downscale the full CMIP5 ensemble are significant and not necessary if the aim is to develop scenarios covering a representative range of future climate conditions relevant to a climate change risk assessment. This paper illustrates a methodology for selecting from the available CMIP5 models in order to identify a set of 8–10 GCMs for use in regional climate change assessments. The selection focuses on their suitability across multiple regions—Southeast Asia, Europe and Africa. The selection (a) avoids the inclusion of the least realistic models for each region and (b) simultaneously captures the maximum possible range of changes in surface temperature and precipitation for three continental-scale regions. We find that, of the CMIP5 GCMs with 6-hourly fields available, three simulate the key regional aspects of climate sufficiently poorly that we consider the projections from those models ‘implausible’ (MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and IPSL-CM5B-LR). From the remaining models, we demonstrate a selection methodology which avoids the poorest models by including them in the set only if their exclusion would significantly reduce the range of projections sampled. The result of this process is a set of models suitable for using to generate downscaled climate change information for a consistent multi-regional assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation

A Global Portrait of Counselling Psychologists’ Characteristics, Perspectives, and Professional Behaviors

Counselling psychologists in eight countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) responded to survey questions that focused on their demographics as well as their professional identities, roles, settings and activities. As well, they were asked about satisfaction with the specialty and the extent to which they endorsed 10 core counselling psychology values. This article reports those results, focusing both on areas in which there were between-country similarities as well as on those for which there were differences. These data provide is a snapshot of counselling psychology globally and establish a foundation for the other articles in this special issue of the journal