Multi-timescale Solar Cycles and the Possible Implications

Based on analysis of the annual averaged relative sunspot number (ASN) during 1700 -- 2009, 3 kinds of solar cycles are confirmed: the well-known 11-yr cycle (Schwabe cycle), 103-yr secular cycle (numbered as G1, G2, G3, and G4, respectively since 1700); and 51.5-yr Cycle. From similarities, an extrapolation of forthcoming solar cycles is made, and found that the solar cycle 24 will be a relative long and weak Schwabe cycle, which may reach to its apex around 2012-2014 in the vale between G3 and G4. Additionally, most Schwabe cycles are asymmetric with rapidly rising-phases and slowly decay-phases. The comparisons between ASN and the annual flare numbers with different GOES classes (C-class, M-class, X-class, and super-flare, here super-flare is defined as $\geq$ X10.0) and the annal averaged radio flux at frequency of 2.84 GHz indicate that solar flares have a tendency: the more powerful of the flare, the later it takes place after the onset of the Schwabe cycle, and most powerful flares take place in the decay phase of Schwabe cycle. Some discussions on the origin of solar cycles are presented.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure

Synergistic roles of climate warming and human occupation in Patagonian megafaunal extinctions during the Last Deglaciation.

The causes of Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions (60,000 to 11,650 years ago, hereafter 60 to 11.65 ka) remain contentious, with major phases coinciding with both human arrival and climate change around the world. The Americas provide a unique opportunity to disentangle these factors as human colonization took place over a narrow time frame (~15 to 14.6 ka) but during contrasting temperature trends across each continent. Unfortunately, limited data sets in South America have so far precluded detailed comparison. We analyze genetic and radiocarbon data from 89 and 71 Patagonian megafaunal bones, respectively, more than doubling the high-quality Pleistocene megafaunal radiocarbon data sets from the region. We identify a narrow megafaunal extinction phase 12,280 ± 110 years ago, some 1 to 3 thousand years after initial human presence in the area. Although humans arrived immediately prior to a cold phase, the Antarctic Cold Reversal stadial, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until the stadial finished and the subsequent warming phase commenced some 1 to 3 thousand years later. The increased resolution provided by the Patagonian material reveals that the sequence of climate and extinction events in North and South America were temporally inverted, but in both cases, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until human presence and climate warming coincided. Overall, metapopulation processes involving subpopulation connectivity on a continental scale appear to have been critical for megafaunal species survival of both climate change and human impacts

Synergistic roles of climate warming and human occupation in Patagonian megafaunal extinctions during the Last Deglaciation

The causes of Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions (60,000 to 11,650 years ago, hereafter 60 to 11.65 ka) remain contentious, with major phases coinciding with both human arrival and climate change around the world. The Americas provide a unique opportunity to disentangle these factors as human colonization took place over a narrow time frame (~15 to 14.6 ka) but during contrasting temperature trends across each continent. Unfortunately, limited data sets in South America have so far precluded detailed comparison. We analyze genetic and radiocarbon data from 89 and 71 Patagonian megafaunal bones, respectively, more than doubling the high-quality Pleistocene megafaunal radiocarbon data sets from the region.We identify a narrowmegafaunal extinction phase 12,280 ± 110 years ago, some 1 to 3 thousand years after initial human presence in the area. Although humans arrived immediately prior to a cold phase, the Antarctic Cold Reversal stadial, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until the stadial finished and the subsequent warming phase commenced some 1 to 3 thousand years later. The increased resolution provided by the Patagonian material reveals that the sequence of climate and extinction events in North and South America were temporally inverted, but in both cases, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until human presence and climate warming coincided. Overall, metapopulation processes involving subpopulation connectivity on a continental scale appear to have been critical for megafaunal species survival of both climate change and human impacts.Fil: Metcalf, Jessica L.. University of Adelaide; Australia. State University of Colorado Boulder; Estados UnidosFil: Turney, Chris. University of New South Wales; AustraliaFil: Barnett, Ross. University of Oxford; Reino Unido. Universidad de Copenhagen; DinamarcaFil: Martin, Fabiana. Universidad de Magallanes. Instituto de la Patagonia. Centro de Estudios del Hombre Austral; ChileFil: Bray, Sarah C.. University of Adelaide; Australia. University of South Australia; AustraliaFil: Vilstrup, Julia T.. Universidad de Copenhagen; DinamarcaFil: Orlando, Ludovic. Universidad de Copenhagen; DinamarcaFil: Salas-Gismondi, Rodolfo. Université de Montpellier. Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution; Francia. Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos; PerúFil: Loponte, Daniel Marcelo. Secretaría de Cultura de la Nación. Dirección Nacional de Cultura y Museos. Instituto Nacional de Antropología y Pensamiento Latinoamericano; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Medina, Matias Eduardo. Centro de Estudios Históricos ; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: de Nigris, Mariana Eleonor. Secretaría de Cultura de la Nación. Dirección Nacional de Cultura y Museos. Instituto Nacional de Antropología y Pensamiento Latinoamericano; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Civalero, Maria Teresa. Secretaría de Cultura de la Nación. Dirección Nacional de Cultura y Museos. Instituto Nacional de Antropología y Pensamiento Latinoamericano; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Fernández, Pablo Marcelo. Secretaría de Cultura de la Nación. Dirección Nacional de Cultura y Museos. Instituto Nacional de Antropología y Pensamiento Latinoamericano; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Gasco, Alejandra Valeria. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Laboratorio de Paleoecología Humana; ArgentinaFil: Duran, Victor Alberto. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Laboratorio de Paleoecología Humana; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Seymour, Kevin L.. Royal Ontario Museum. Department of Natural History; CanadáFil: Otaola, Clara. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Saavedra 15. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Historia y Ciencias Humanas; ArgentinaFil: Gil, Adolfo Fabian. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Museo de Historia Natural de San Rafael - Ianigla | Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Museo de Historia Natural de San Rafael - Ianigla | Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Museo de Historia Natural de San Rafael - Ianigla; ArgentinaFil: Paunero, Rafael. Universidad Nacional de La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Prevosti, Francisco Juan. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Regional de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia Tecnológica de La Rioja. - Universidad Nacional de La Rioja. Centro Regional de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia Tecnológica de La Rioja. - Universidad Nacional de Catamarca. Centro Regional de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia Tecnológica de La Rioja. - Secretaría de Industria y Minería. Servicio Geológico Minero Argentino. Centro Regional de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia Tecnológica de La Rioja. - Provincia de La Rioja. Centro Regional de Investigaciones Científicas y Transferencia Tecnológica de La Rioja; ArgentinaFil: Bradshaw, Corey J. A.. University of Adelaide; AustraliaFil: Wheeler, Jane C.. Instituto de Investigación y Desarrollo de Camélidos Sudamericanos; PerúFil: Borrero, Luis Alberto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Saavedra 15. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Historia y Ciencias Humanas; ArgentinaFil: Austin, Jeremy J.. University of Adelaide; AustraliaFil: Cooper, Alan. University of Adelaide; Australia. University of Oxford; Reino Unid

Human biogeography and faunal exploitation in Diamante River basin, central western Argentina

A biogeographic model used to describe human peopling of southern Mendoza, central western Argentina, proposed an intensification process activated by an increase in population growth rate during the Late Holocene. During this process, high-ranked resources at the surroundings of residential camps were depleted, and hunter–gatherers broadened their diet by incorporating a larger number of low-ranked prey and domesticated plant resources. In this paper, we evaluate an alternative hypothesis, focusing on zooarchaeological data from the Diamante River basin. The results show that faunal resource intensification does not appear to have occurred in the Diamante River basin during the Late Holocene. Faunal consumption in Diamante River basin mainly reflects the local fauna in each ecological zone. The data do not show a lack of higher ranked resources. We suggest it is more likely that the demographic increase was not significant enough to cause an impact on the faunal resources. The archaeological evidence should be improved and analysed in smaller scales to continue with the intensification debate.Fil: Otaola, Clara. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Giardina, Miguel Angel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Franchetti, Fernando Ricardo. University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown; Estados Unidos. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

Synergistic roles of climate warming and human occupation in Patagonian megafaunal extinctions during the Last Deglaciation

The causes of Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions (60,000 to 11,650 years ago, hereafter 60 to 11.65 ka) remain contentious, with major phases coinciding with both human arrival and climate change around the world. The Americas provide a unique opportunity to disentangle these factors as human colonization took place over a narrow time frame (~15 to 14.6 ka) but during contrasting temperature trends across each continent. Unfortunately, limited data sets in South America have so far precluded detailed comparison. We analyze genetic and radiocarbon data from 89 and 71 Patagonian megafaunal bones, respectively, more than doubling the high-quality Pleistocene megafaunal radiocarbon data sets from the region. We identify a narrow megafaunal extinction phase 12,280 ± 110 years ago, some 1 to 3 thousand years after initial human presence in the area. Although humans arrived immediately prior to a cold phase, the Antarctic Cold Reversal stadial, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until the stadial finished and the subsequent warming phase commenced some 1 to 3 thousand years later. The increased resolution provided by the Patagonian material reveals that the sequence of climate and extinction events in North and South America were temporally inverted, but in both cases, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until human presence and climate warming coincided. Overall, metapopulation processes involving subpopulation connectivity on a continental scale appear to have been critical for megafaunal species survival of both climate change and human impacts.Jessica L. Metcalf, Chris Turney, Ross Barnett, Fabiana Martin, Sarah C. Bray, Julia T. Vilstrup, Ludovic Orlando, Rodolfo Salas-Gismondi, Daniel Loponte, Matías Medina, Mariana De Nigris, Teresa Civalero, Pablo Marcelo Fernández, Alejandra Gasco, Victor Duran, Kevin L. Seymour, Clara Otaola, Adolfo Gil, Rafael Paunero, Francisco J. Prevosti, Corey J. A. Bradshaw, Jane C. Wheeler, Luis Borrero, Jeremy J. Austin, Alan Coope

The IDENTIFY study: the investigation and detection of urological neoplasia in patients referred with suspected urinary tract cancer - a multicentre observational study

Objective To evaluate the contemporary prevalence of urinary tract cancer (bladder cancer, upper tract urothelial cancer [UTUC] and renal cancer) in patients referred to secondary care with haematuria, adjusted for established patient risk markers and geographical variation. Patients and Methods This was an international multicentre prospective observational study. We included patients aged ≥16 years, referred to secondary care with suspected urinary tract cancer. Patients with a known or previous urological malignancy were excluded. We estimated the prevalence of bladder cancer, UTUC, renal cancer and prostate cancer; stratified by age, type of haematuria, sex, and smoking. We used a multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression to adjust cancer prevalence for age, type of haematuria, sex, smoking, hospitals, and countries. Results Of the 11 059 patients assessed for eligibility, 10 896 were included from 110 hospitals across 26 countries. The overall adjusted cancer prevalence (n = 2257) was 28.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 22.3–34.1), bladder cancer (n = 1951) 24.7% (95% CI 19.1–30.2), UTUC (n = 128) 1.14% (95% CI 0.77–1.52), renal cancer (n = 107) 1.05% (95% CI 0.80–1.29), and prostate cancer (n = 124) 1.75% (95% CI 1.32–2.18). The odds ratios for patient risk markers in the model for all cancers were: age 1.04 (95% CI 1.03–1.05; P < 0.001), visible haematuria 3.47 (95% CI 2.90–4.15; P < 0.001), male sex 1.30 (95% CI 1.14–1.50; P < 0.001), and smoking 2.70 (95% CI 2.30–3.18; P < 0.001). Conclusions A better understanding of cancer prevalence across an international population is required to inform clinical guidelines. We are the first to report urinary tract cancer prevalence across an international population in patients referred to secondary care, adjusted for patient risk markers and geographical variation. Bladder cancer was the most prevalent disease. Visible haematuria was the strongest predictor for urinary tract cancer

Risco de los Indios: ocupaciones humanas de altura en la cuenca del río Diamante

This paper presents the results of fieldwork at Risco de los Indios, an archaeological site situated at 2.400 m elevation in the upper Diamante River watershed. The site contains twenty nine stacked-rock residential structures and dates to ca. 500 cal BP. Recovered faunal and macrobotanical remains indicate the site focused mainly on hunting camelids, underwritten by exploitation of local plants as well as transport and consumption of domestic beans (Phaseolus vulgaris). Extralocal ceramics and obsidian sourcing indicates substantial mobility and contact with other groups within and across the southern Andes. These results are discussed in the context of the other high-altitude residential sites in the southern Mendoza region.Se presentan los resultados de los trabajos de campo en el sitio arqueológico Risco de los Indios, localizado en la cuenca alta del río Diamante a unos 2.400 m s.n.m. El sitio reúne un total de veintinueve estructuras habitacionales pircadas y fue fechado en ca. 500 años AP. Las características generales de Risco de los Indios sugieren que es un sitio de caza, con una fuerte dependencia en el consumo de camélidos, complementado con la explotación de plantas domésticas (Phaseolus vulgaris) y silvestres. Algunos de los tipos cerámicos recuperados en el lugar, al igual que los instrumentos de obsidiana y la mayor parte de las especies de plantas y animales identificadas, muestran una importante circulación de bienes. Los resultados presentados son discutidos en el contexto del resto de los sitios arqueológicos de altura del sur de Mendoza

Impact of maedi-visna in intensively managed dairy sheep

6 páginas, 3 tablas, 2 figuras.Maedi-visna (MV) is a slow lentiviral disease of sheep that has a significant economic impact in many sheep-producing regions although there remains a paucity of data relating to actual production losses resulting from this disease. The objective of this study was to evaluate direct losses, through death or culling, from two dairy sheep flocks with high seroprevalences of infection over a 2 year period. Maedi-visna was found, either alone or in combination with other diseases, to be the most common disease diagnosed in these sheep, and the major cause of direct animal losses in the two flocks. Moderate to severe lesions associated with MV were found in 52% and 80% of the sheep, respectively, affecting the lungs, brain and/or mammary glands. Despite the similarity of the two flocks under study in terms of breed, number of animals, geographical proximity, and inter-change of rams, a striking difference was observed regarding the clinical presentation of the disease: in one flock the respiratory form was dominant while in the other 70% of animals died or were culled because of neurological signs.Julio Benavides was supported by the programme Junta para la Ampliación de Estudios (CSIC-European Social Fund) through a JAE-Doc post-doctoral contract.Peer Reviewe

Tiempo y movilidad en el área de Los Antiguos-Monte Zeballos y Paso Roballos, Noroeste de Santa Cruz, Argentina

El derrotero de la arqueología de los cazadores-recolectores de la Patagonia ha estado, en muchos aspectos, guiado por un acercamiento ecológico-sistémico. Bajo esta perspectiva, la variabilidad del registro arqueológico ha sido interpretada de manera sincrónica, empleando categorías definidas funcionalmente. El carácter de las ocupaciones, su continuidad en el tiempo y la presencia de vacíos ocupacionales en diferentes escalas no han recibido la debida atención, lo que ha limitado la visión que tenemos del desarrollo de los pueblos que ocuparon esa vasta región. Aquí proponemos discutir las variaciones en el uso del espacio y algunos recursos en una escala microrregional, a fin de examinar su direccionalidad. Analizamos la relación entre el carácter de las ocupaciones y la movilidad en el largo plazo, a partir de los trabajos realizados en el área de Los Antiguos-Monte Zeballos y Paso Roballos (Santa Cruz, Argentina) y su comparación con las áreas inmediatamente vecinas.The archaeology of the hunter-gatherers of Patagonia in many aspects has been guided by an ecologic-systemic approach. Archaeological variability has been interpreted synchronically by using functional categories. The character of the occupations, their continuity, and the presence of gaps has not deserved too much attention. This has limited our vision of the dynamics of the people that lived in that vast region. Here we discuss the variation in use of space and lithic resources at a microregional scale, in order to evaluate its directionality along time. We analyze the relation between the character of the occupations and long term mobility based on our research at Los Antiguos-Monte Zeballos and Paso Roballos area (Santa Cruz, Argentina).Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Muse