Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension

This study systematically analyzes the complete IPCC AR4 (CMIP3) ensemble of GCM simulations with respect to changes in extreme event characteristics at the end of the 21st century compared to present-day conditions. It complements previous studies by investigating a more comprehensive database and considering seasonal changes beside the annual time scale. Confirming previous studies, the agreement between the GCMs is generally high for temperature-related extremes, indicating increases of warm day occurrences and heatwave lengths, and decreases of cold extremes. However, we identify issues with the choice of indices used to quantify heatwave lengths, which do overall not affect the sign of the changes, but strongly impact the magnitude and patterns of projected changes in heatwave characteristics. Projected changes in precipitation and dryness extremes are more ambiguous than those in temperature extremes, despite some robust features, such as increasing dryness over the Mediterranean and increasing heavy precipitation over the Northern high latitudes. We also find that the assessment of projected changes in dryness depends on the index choice, and that models show less agreement regarding changes in soil moisture than in the commonly used ‘consecutive dry days' index, which is based on precipitation data only. Finally an analysis of the scaling of changes of extreme temperature quantiles with global, regional and seasonal warming shows that much of the extreme quantile changes are due to a seasonal scaling of the regional annual-mean warming. This emphasizes the importance of the seasonal time scale also for extremes. Changes in extreme quantiles of temperature on land scale with changes in global annual mean temperature by a factor of more than 2 in some regions and seasons, implying large changes in extremes in several countries, even for the commonly discussed global 2°C-warming targe

Today's virtual water consumption and trade under future water scarcity

The populations of most nations consume products of both domestic and foreign origin, importing together with the products the water which is expended abroad for their production (termed 'virtual water'). Therefore, any investigation of the sustainability of present-day water consumption under future climate change needs to consider the effects of potentially reduced water availability both on domestic water resources and on the trades of virtual water. Here we use combinations of Global Climate and Global Impact Models from the ISI–MIP ensemble to derive patterns of future water availability under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations scenarios. We assess the effects of reduced water availability in these scenarios on national water consumptions and virtual water trades through a simple accounting scheme based on the water footprint concept. We thereby identify countries where the water footprint within the country area is reduced due to a reduced within-area water availability, most prominently in the Mediterranean and some African countries. National water consumption in countries such as Russia, which are non-water scarce by themselves, can be affected through reduced imports from water scarce countries. We find overall stronger effects of the higher GHG concentrations scenario, although the model range of climate projections for single GHG concentrations scenarios is in itself larger than the differences induced by the GHG concentrations scenarios. Our results highlight that, for both investigated GHG concentration scenarios, the current water consumption and virtual water trades cannot be sustained into the future due to the projected patterns of reduced water availability

Silvertone

These poems both celebrate and question the psychological existence we give to the objects that define our lives: the silver spoon from which the speaker sips, during each Epiphany, the sacred Borscht which she later catches her mother, after guests have left, pouring down the drain; the acoustic guitar on which the speaker’s father strums his minor-keyed songs from Ukraine; or the granite bust of a national poet that, in the hot sun, fails to inspire. With heart and humor the speaker examines what stays, goes, and how every object, once illuminated by the past, has the ability to take on new meaning. Or, as Miles Davis put it, “I’ll play it first then tell you what it is later.

Edge of House

Joseph Brodsky, in one of the essays in On Grief and Reason, writes that the twentieth century is the century of the displaced person. Writers in this century more than any other—from James Joyce and Ernest Hemingway to Paul Celan and Czeslaw Milosz to Seamus Heaney and Brodsky himself—have explored the ordeal of abandoning, voluntarily or involuntarily, a home that had become culturally or socially oppressive. Ukrainian-American poet Dzvinia Orlowsky, in Edge of House and Cuban-American poet Aleida Rodriguez, in Garden of Exile, while eschewing the political concerns of many of these writers, similarly draw on the impact of displacement and relocation in their lives to create an art deeply concerned with psychological and emotional boundaries and the sense of a divided self and world that they create. Though Orlowsky’s parents emigrated from Ukraine rather than herself, the legacy of displacement deeply informs Edge of House, her second collection. Orlowsky sees life as constituted by many kinds of boundaries and sees living as consisting in transgressing or respecting these boundaries. – Robert Levine, Poet Lor

Convertible Night, Flurry of Stones

Gertrude Stein writes: Pink looks as pink, pink looks as pink, as pink as pink supposes, suppose. Dzvinia Orlowsky\u27s poems in her new book are strung along the tension of a black thread stretched to near snapping as her tenacious, feisty speaker refuses for all women the typecast as another breast cancer statistic, another bumper sticker pink bow. Equal parts shepherd, punk, and auburn-wigged angel, Orlowsky, with torches in her hand, illuminates this dark passage with images of startling originality and honesty. The clear voice in this book joins those whose lives have been and continue to be altered by this disease

Bad Harvest

This powerful sixth collection of poetry is like some kind of new world Genesis singing its stories with lyric, grace, comic intuition and tragic force. The poet leads us over the remains of drought, along empty riverbeds that run parallel to failure and death, but then twists to capture a more elusive truth, pluck one last grain to hold, redeeming a bad harvest to sow hope in this soiled world. Bad Harvest burns like revelation