Analysis of the Bayesian Cramer-Rao lower bound in astrometry: Studying the impact of prior information in the location of an object

Context. The best precision that can be achieved to estimate the location of a stellar-like object is a topic of permanent interest in the astrometric community. Aims. We analyse bounds for the best position estimation of a stellar-like object on a CCD detector array in a Bayesian setting where the position is unknown, but where we have access to a prior distribution. In contrast to a parametric setting where we estimate a parameter from observations, the Bayesian approach estimates a random object (i.e., the position is a random variable) from observations that are statistically dependent on the position. Methods. We characterize the Bayesian Cramer-Rao (CR) that bounds the minimum mean square error (MMSE) of the best estimator of the position of a point source on a linear CCD-like detector, as a function of the properties of detector, the source, and the background. Results. We quantify and analyse the increase in astrometric performance from the use of a prior distribution of the object position, which is not available in the classical parametric setting. This gain is shown to be significant for various observational regimes, in particular in the case of faint objects or when the observations are taken under poor conditions. Furthermore, we present numerical evidence that the MMSE estimator of this problem tightly achieves the Bayesian CR bound. This is a remarkable result, demonstrating that all the performance gains presented in our analysis can be achieved with the MMSE estimator. Conclusions The Bayesian CR bound can be used as a benchmark indicator of the expected maximum positional precision of a set of astrometric measurements in which prior information can be incorporated. This bound can be achieved through the conditional mean estimator, in contrast to the parametric case where no unbiased estimator precisely reaches the CR bound.Comment: 17 pages, 12 figures. Accepted for publication on Astronomy & Astrophysic

Performance analysis of the Least-Squares estimator in Astrometry

We characterize the performance of the widely-used least-squares estimator in astrometry in terms of a comparison with the Cramer-Rao lower variance bound. In this inference context the performance of the least-squares estimator does not offer a closed-form expression, but a new result is presented (Theorem 1) where both the bias and the mean-square-error of the least-squares estimator are bounded and approximated analytically, in the latter case in terms of a nominal value and an interval around it. From the predicted nominal value we analyze how efficient is the least-squares estimator in comparison with the minimum variance Cramer-Rao bound. Based on our results, we show that, for the high signal-to-noise ratio regime, the performance of the least-squares estimator is significantly poorer than the Cramer-Rao bound, and we characterize this gap analytically. On the positive side, we show that for the challenging low signal-to-noise regime (attributed to either a weak astronomical signal or a noise-dominated condition) the least-squares estimator is near optimal, as its performance asymptotically approaches the Cramer-Rao bound. However, we also demonstrate that, in general, there is no unbiased estimator for the astrometric position that can precisely reach the Cramer-Rao bound. We validate our theoretical analysis through simulated digital-detector observations under typical observing conditions. We show that the nominal value for the mean-square-error of the least-squares estimator (obtained from our theorem) can be used as a benchmark indicator of the expected statistical performance of the least-squares method under a wide range of conditions. Our results are valid for an idealized linear (one-dimensional) array detector where intra-pixel response changes are neglected, and where flat-fielding is achieved with very high accuracy.Comment: 35 pages, 8 figures. Accepted for publication by PAS

Optimality of the Maximum Likelihood estimator in Astrometry

The problem of astrometry is revisited from the perspective of analyzing the attainability of well-known performance limits (the Cramer-Rao bound) for the estimation of the relative position of light-emitting (usually point-like) sources on a CCD-like detector using commonly adopted estimators such as the weighted least squares and the maximum likelihood. Novel technical results are presented to determine the performance of an estimator that corresponds to the solution of an optimization problem in the context of astrometry. Using these results we are able to place stringent bounds on the bias and the variance of the estimators in close form as a function of the data. We confirm these results through comparisons to numerical simulations under a broad range of realistic observing conditions. The maximum likelihood and the weighted least square estimators are analyzed. We confirm the sub-optimality of the weighted least squares scheme from medium to high signal-to-noise found in an earlier study for the (unweighted) least squares method. We find that the maximum likelihood estimator achieves optimal performance limits across a wide range of relevant observational conditions. Furthermore, from our results, we provide concrete insights for adopting an adaptive weighted least square estimator that can be regarded as a computationally efficient alternative to the optimal maximum likelihood solution. We provide, for the first time, close-form analytical expressions that bound the bias and the variance of the weighted least square and maximum likelihood implicit estimators for astrometry using a Poisson-driven detector. These expressions can be used to formally assess the precision attainable by these estimators in comparison with the minimum variance bound.Comment: 24 pages, 7 figures, 2 tables, 3 appendices. Accepted by Astronomy & Astrophysic

Orbits for eighteen visual binaries and two double-line spectroscopic binaries observed with HRCAM on the CTIO SOAR 4m telescope, using a new Bayesian orbit code based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo

We present orbital elements and mass sums for eighteen visual binary stars of spectral types B to K (five of which are new orbits) with periods ranging from 20 to more than 500 yr. For two double-line spectroscopic binaries with no previous orbits, the individual component masses, using combined astrometric and radial velocity data, have a formal uncertainty of ~0.1 MSun. Adopting published photometry, and trigonometric parallaxes, plus our own measurements, we place these objects on an H-R diagram, and discuss their evolutionary status. These objects are part of a survey to characterize the binary population of stars in the Southern Hemisphere, using the SOAR 4m telescope+HRCAM at CTIO. Orbital elements are computed using a newly developed Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm that delivers maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters, as well as posterior probability density functions that allow us to evaluate the uncertainty of our derived parameters in a robust way. For spectroscopic binaries, using our approach, it is possible to derive a self-consistent parallax for the system from the combined astrometric plus radial velocity data ("orbital parallax"), which compares well with the trigonometric parallaxes. We also present a mathematical formalism that allows a dimensionality reduction of the feature space from seven to three search parameters (or from ten to seven dimensions - including parallax - in the case of spectroscopic binaries with astrometric data), which makes it possible to explore a smaller number of parameters in each case, improving the computational efficiency of our Markov Chain Monte Carlo code.Comment: 32 pages, 9 figures, 6 tables. Detailed Appendix with methodology. Accepted by The Astronomical Journa

Prognostics

Knowledge discovery, statistical learning, and more specifically an understanding of the system evolution in time when it undergoes undesirable fault conditions, are critical for an adequate implementation of successful prognostic systems. Prognosis may be understood as the generation of long-term predictions describing the evolution in time of a particular signal of interest or fault indicator, with the purpose of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a failing component/subsystem. Predictions are made using a thorough understanding of the underlying processes and factor in the anticipated future usage

Characterizing the degradation process of Lithium-Ion Batteries using a Similarity-Based-Modeling Approach

This article proposes a Similarity-Based-Modeling (SBM) approach capable of characterizing the degradation process of a lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery when discharged under different current rates and different State-of-Charge (SOC) ranges. The degradation process can be represented through a biexponential model. In this regard, it is possible to determine the equivalent cycle-by-cycle efficiency which has low values at the beginning of the degradation process until it reaches a higher and steady value. The lifespan of the batteries is analyzed through the use of Monte Carlo simulations which intends to represent a more realistic way of how the batteries are used.This article proposes a Similarity-Based-Modeling (SBM) approach capable of characterizing the degradation process of a lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery when discharged under different current rates and different State-of-Charge (SOC) ranges. The degradation process can be represented through a biexponential model. In this regard, it is possible to determine the equivalent cycle-by-cycle efficiency which has low values at the beginning of the degradation process until it reaches a higher and steady value. The lifespan of the batteries is analyzed through the use of Monte Carlo simulations which intends to represent a more realistic way of how the batteries are used

An approach to Prognosis-Decision-Making for route calculation of an electric vehicle considering stochastic traffic information

International audienceWe present a Prognosis-Decision-Making (PDM) methodology to calculate the best route for an Electric Vehicle (EV) in a street network when incorporating stochastic traffic information. To achieve this objective, we formulate an optimization problem that aims at minimizing the expectation of an objective function that incorporates information about the time and energy spent to complete the route. The proposed method uses standard path optimization algorithms to generate a set of initial candidates for the solution of this routing problem. We evaluate all possible paths by incorporating information about the traffic, elevation and distance profiles, as well as the battery State-of-Charge (SOC), in a prognostic algorithm that computes the SOC at the end of the route. In this regard, the solution of the optimization problem provides a balance between time an energy consumption in the EV. The method is verified in simulation using an artificial street network

Procedure for Selecting a Transmission Mode Dependent on the State-of-Charge and State-of-Health of a Lithium-ion Battery in Wireless Sensor Networks with Energy Harvesting Devices

Diverse methods and considerations have been proposed to manage the available energy in an efficient manner in Wireless Sensor Networks. By incorporating Energy Harvesting Devices in these type of networks it is possible to reduce the dependency of the availability of the Energy Storage Devices, particularly the lithium-ion battery. Recently, the State-of-Charge and State-of-Health of the battery have been considered as inputs for the design of the Medium- Access-Control protocols for Wireless Sensor Networks. In this article, different guidelines are proposed for the design of Medium-Access-Control protocols used in Wireless Sensor Networks with Energy Harvesting Devices considering the State-of-Charge and State-of-Health as indicators for the estimation of the transmission time of the sensor node. The proposed guidelines consider different currents used during the transmission to estimate the State-of-Charge and Stateof- Health of the battery. The incorporation of these indicators aim to improve the decision-making process of the sensor node when transmitting.Diverse methods and considerations have been proposed to manage the available energy in an efficient manner in Wireless Sensor Networks. By incorporating Energy Harvesting Devices in these type of networks it is possible to reduce the dependency of the availability of the Energy Storage Devices, particularly the lithium-ion battery. Recently, the State-of-Charge and State-of-Health of the battery have been considered as inputs for the design of the Medium- Access-Control protocols for Wireless Sensor Networks. In this article, different guidelines are proposed for the design of Medium-Access-Control protocols used in Wireless Sensor Networks with Energy Harvesting Devices considering the State-of-Charge and State-of-Health as indicators for the estimation of the transmission time of the sensor node. The proposed guidelines consider different currents used during the transmission to estimate the State-of-Charge and Stateof- Health of the battery. The incorporation of these indicators aim to improve the decision-making process of the sensor node when transmitting

An approach to Prognosis-Decision-Making for route calculation of an electric vehicle considering stochastic traffic information

We present a Prognosis-Decision-Making (PDM) methodology to calculate the best route for an Electric Vehicle (EV) in a street network when incorporating stochastic traffic information. To achieve this objective, we formulate an optimization problem that aims at minimizing the expectation of an objective function that incorporates information about the time and energy spent to complete the route. The proposed method uses standard path optimization algorithms to generate a set of initial candidates for the solution of this routing problem. We evaluate all possible paths by incorporating information about the traffic, elevation and distance profiles, as well as the battery State-of-Charge (SOC), in a prognostic algorithm that computes the SOC at the end of the route. In this regard, the solution of the optimization problem provides a balance between time an energy consumption in the EV. The method is verified in simulation using an artificial street network