Spline regression for zero-inflated models

We propose a regression model for count data when the classical generalized linear model approach is too rigid due to a high outcome of zero counts and a nonlinear influence of continuous covariates. Zero-Inflation is applied to take into account the presence of excess zeros with separate link functions for the zero and the nonzero component. Nonlinearity in covariates is captured by spline functions based on B-splines. Our algorithm relies on maximum-likelihood estimation and allows for adaptive box-constrained knots, thus improving the goodness of the spline fit and allowing for detection of sensitivity changepoints. A simulation study substantiates the numerical stability of the algorithm to infer such models. The AIC criterion is shown to serve well for model selection, in particular if nonlinearities are weak such that BIC tends to overly simplistic models. We fit the introduced models to real data of children's dental sanity, linking caries counts with the so-called Body-Mass-Index (BMI) and other socioeconomic factors. This reveals a puzzling nonmonotonic influence of BMI on caries counts which is yet to be explained by clinical experts

Everyone Likes to Be Liked: Experimental Evidence from Matching Markets

Matching markets can be unstable when individuals prefer to be matched to a partner who also wants to be matched with them. Through a pre-registered and theory-guided laboratory experiment, we provide evidence that such reciprocal preferences exist, significantly decrease stability in matching markets, and are driven both by belief-based and preference-based motives. Participants expect partners who want to be matched with them to be more cooperative, and are more altruistic themselves. This leads to higher cooperation and larger profits when participants can consider each other's preferences

High pCO 2 levels affect metabolic rate, but not feeding behavior and fitness, of farmed giant mussel Choromytilus chorus

Indexación: Scopus.Acknowledgements. We thank Luisa Saavedra and Araceli Rodriguez-Romero for their help in the field and during laboratory activities. We also acknowledge Laura Ramajo for help with AT estimations. Emily Giles Neill provided valuable comments that greatly improved the manuscript. Special thanks are due to the reviewers and the editor for very constructive comments on the manuscript. This study was supported by the Millennium Nucleus Center for the Study of Multiple drivers on Marine Socio-Ecological Systems (MUSELS) funded by MINECON NC120086, PIA CONICYT ACT-172037 and FONDECYT grant nos. 1140938 and 1140092 to N.A.L. and M.A.L.Mar Ecol Prog Ser 454: 65−74 Findlay HS, Wood HL, Kendall MA, Spicer JI, Twitchett RJ, Widdicombe S (2009) Calcification, a physiological pro-cess to be considered in the context of the whole organ-ism. Biogeosciences 6: 2267−2284 Fitzer SC, Zhu W, Tanner KE, Phoenix VR, Kamenos NA, Cusack M (2015) Ocean acidification alters the material properties of Mytilus edulis shells. J R Soc Interface 12: 214−227 Freitas R, De Marchi L, Bastos M, Moreira A and others (2017) Effects of seawater acidification and salinity alter-ations on metabolic, osmoregulation and oxidative stress markers in Mytilus galloprovincialis. Ecol Indic 79: 54−62 Gattuso JP, Magnan A, Billé R, Cheung WWL and others (2015) Contrasting futures for ocean and society from dif-ferent anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios. Science 349: aac4722 Gazeau F, Urbini L, Cox TE, Alliouane S, Gattuso JP (2015) Comparison of the alkalinity and calcium anomaly tech-niques to estimate rates of net calcification. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 527: 1−12 Gray MW, Langdon CJ, Waldbusser GG, Hales B, Kramer S (2017) Mechanistic understanding of ocean acidification impacts on larval feeding physiology and energy budg-ets of the mussel Mytilus californianus. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 563: 81−94 Griffiths CL, Griffiths RJ (1987) Animal energetics, Vol 2: Bivalvia through Reptilia. In: Pandian TJ, Vernberg FJ (eds) Bivalvia. Academic Press, New York, NY, p 1−88 Harvey BP, Dwynn-Jones D, Moore PJ (2013) Meta-analysis reveals complex marine biological responses to the inter-active effects of ocean acidification and warming. Ecol Evol 3: 1016−1030 Hiebenthal C, Philipp EER, Eisenhauer A, Wahl M (2013) Effects of seawater pCO2 and temperature on shell growth, shell stability, condition and cellular stress of western Baltic Sea Mytilus edulis (L.) and Arctica is - landica (L.). Mar Biol 160: 2073−2087 Ibarrola I, Arambalza U, Navarro JM, Urrutia MB, Navarro E (2012) Allometric relationships in feeding and diges-tion in the Chilean mytilids Mytilus chilensis (Hupé), Choromytilus chorus (Molina) and Aulacomya ater (Mo - lina): a comparative study. J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 426-427: 18−27 Lagos NA, Benítez S, Duarte C, Lardies MA and others (2016) Effects of temperature and ocean acidification on shell characteristics of Argopecten purpuratus: implica-tions for scallop aquaculture in an upwelling-influenced area. Aquacult Environ Interact 8: 357−370 Lardies MA, Arias MB, Poupin MJ, Manríquez PH and oth-ers (2014) Differential response to ocean acidification in physiological traits of Concholepas concholepas popula-tions. J Sea Res 90: 127−134 Lardies MA, Benítez S, Osores S, Vargas CA, Duarte C, Lohrmann KB, Lagos NA (2017) Physiological and histo - pathological impacts of increased carbon dioxide and temperature on the scallops Argopecten purpuratus cultured under upwelling influences in northern Chile. Aquaculture 479: 455−466 Lemasson AJ, Fletcher S, Hall-Spencer JM, Knights AM (2017) Linking the biological impacts of ocean acidifica-tion on oysters to changes in ecosystem services: a review. J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 492: 49−62 Mackenzie CL, Ormondroyd GA, Curling SF, Ball RJ, Whitely NM, Malham SK (2014) Ocean warming, more than acidification, reduces shell strength in a commercial shellfish species during food limitation. PLOS ONE 9: e86764 McElhany P (2017) CO2 sensitivity experiments are not suf-ficient to show an effect of ocean acidification. ICES J Mar Sci 74: 926−928 Mehrbach C, Culberson CH, Hawley JE, Pytkowicz RM (1973) Measurement of the apparent dissociation con-stants of carbonic acid in seawater at atmospheric pres-sure. Limnol Oceanogr 18: 897−907 Melzner F, Thomsen J, Koeve W, Oschlies A and others (2013) Future ocean acidification will be amplified by hypoxia in coastal habitats. Mar Biol 160: 1875−1888 Michaelidis B, Ouzounis C, Paleras A, Pörtner HO (2005) Effects of long-term moderate hypercapnia on acid−base balance and growth rate in marine mussels Mytilus gal-loprovincialis. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 293: 109−118 Miller AW, Reynolds AC, Sobrino C, Riedel GF (2009) Shell-fish face uncertain future in high CO2 world: influence of acidification on oyster larvae calcification and growth in estuaries. PLOS ONE 4: e5661 Navarro JM (1988) The effects of salinity on the physio - logical ecology of Choromytilus chorus (Molina, 1782) (Bivalvia: Mytilidae). J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 122: 19−33 Navarro JM, Torres R, Acuña K, Duarte C and others (2013) Impact of medium-term exposure to elevated pCO2 lev-els on the physiological energetics of the mussel Mytilus chilensis. Chemosphere 90: 1242−1248 Navarro JM, Duarte C, Manríquez PH, Lardies MA and oth-ers (2016) Ocean warming and elevated carbon dioxide: multiple stressor impacts on juvenile mussels from south-ern Chile. ICES J Mar Sci 73: 764−771 Nienhuis S, Palmer AR, Harley CD (2010) Elevated CO2 affects shell dissolution rate but not calcification rate in a marine snail. Proc R Soc B 277: 2553−2558 Orr JC, Fabry VJ, Aumont O, Bopp L and others (2005) Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms. Nature 437: 681−686 Osores SJ, Lagos NA, San Martin V, Manríquez PH and others (2017) Plasticity and inter-population variability in physiological and life-history traits of the mussel Mytilus chilensis: a reciprocal transplant experiment. J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 490: 1−12 Palmer AR (1982) Growth in marine gastropods: a non-destructive technique for independently measuring shell and body weight. Malacologia 23: 63−73 Parker LM, Ross PM, O’Connor WA, Borysko L, Raftos DA, Pörtner HO (2012) Adult exposure influences offspring response to ocean acidification in oysters. Glob Change Biol 18: 82−92 Pierrot D, Lewis E, Wallace DWR (2006) MS Excel program developed for CO2 system calculations. ORNL/CDIAC-105a. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, TN Ramajo L, Marba N, Prado L, Peron S and others (2016) Bio-mineralization changes with food supply confer juvenile scallops (Argopecten purpuratus) resistance to ocean acidification. Glob Change Biol 22: 2025−2037 Range P, Chícharo MA, Ben-Hamadou R, Piló D and others (2014) Impacts of CO2-induced seawater acidification on coastal Mediterranean bivalves and interactions with other climatic stressors. Reg Environ Change 14(Suppl 1): 19−30 Sabine C, Feely RA, Gruber N, Key RM and others (2004) The oceanic sink of anthropogenic CO2. Science 305: 367–371 SERNAPESCA (Servicio Nacional de Pesca y Acuicultura) (2014) Anuarios estadísticos del Servicio Nacional de Pesca y Acuicultura. www.sernapesca.cl Solórzano L (1969) Determination of ammonia in natural waters by the phenolhypochlorite method. Limnol Oce - anogr 14: 799−801 Thomsen J, Melzner F (2010) Moderate seawater acidifica-tion does not elicit long-term metabolic depression in the blue mussel Mytilus edulis. Mar Biol 157: 2667−2676 Thomsen J, Casties I, Pansch C, Körtzinger A, Melzner F (2013) Food availability outweighs ocean acidification effects in juvenile Mytilus edulis: laboratory and field experiments. Glob Change Biol 19: 1017−1027 Thomsen J, Stapp LS, Haynert K, Schade H, Danelli M, Lannig G, Melzner F (2017) Naturally acidified habitat selects for ocean acidification-tolerant mussels. Sci Adv 3: e1602411 Toro B, Navarro JM, Palma-Fleming H (2003) Relationship between bioenergetics responses and organic pollutants in the giant mussel, Choromytilus chorus (Mollusca: Mytilidae). Aquat Toxicol 63: 257−269 Torres R, Pantoja S, Harada N, González HE, Daneri G, Frangopulos M, Fukasawa M (2011) Air-sea CO2 fluxes along the coast of Chile: from CO2 outgassing in central northern upwelling waters to CO2 uptake in southern Patagonian fjords. J Geophys Res 116: C09006 Torres R, Manriquez PH, Duarte C, Navarro JM, Lagos NA, Vargas CA, Lardies MA (2013) Evaluation of a semi - automatic system for long-term seawater carbonate chemistry manipulation. Rev Chil Hist Nat 86: 443−451 Vargas CA, Aguilera V, Martín V, Manríquez P and others (2015) CO2-driven ocean acidification disrupts the filter feeding behavior in Chilean gastropod and bivalve spe-cies from different geographic localities. Estuaries Coasts 38: 1163−1177 Vargas CA, Lagos NA, Lardies MA, Duarte C and others (2017) Species-specific responses to ocean acidification should account for local adaptation and adaptive plasti-city. Nature Ecol Evol 1: 0084 Vargas CA, Cuevas LA, Silva N, Gonzalez HE, Pol-Holz D, Narvaez DA (2018) Influence of glacier melting and river discharges on the nutrient distribution and DIC recycling in the southern Chilean Patagonia. J Geophys Res Bio-geosci 123: 256−270 Velasco LA, Navarro JM (2003) Energetic balance of infau-nal (Mulinia edulis King, 1831) and epifaunal (Mytilus chilensis Hupé, 1854) bivalves in response to wide varia-tions in concentration and quality of seston. J Exp Mar Biol Ecol 296: 79−92 Vihtakari M, Hendriks IE, Holding J, Renaud PE, Duarte CM, Havenhand JN (2013) Effects of ocean acidification and warming on sperm activity and early life stages of the Mediterranean mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis). Water 5: 1890−1915 Wang Y, Li L, Hu M, Lu W (2015) Physiological energetic of the thick shell mussel Mytilus coruscus exposed to sea-water acidification and thermal stress. Sci Total Environ 514: 261−272 White MM, McCorkle DC, Mullineaux LS, Cohen AL (2013)Benthic habitats such as intertidal areas, sandy or rocky shores, upwelling zones, and estuaries are characterized by variable environmental conditions. This high variability of environmental stressors such as temperature, salinity, and pH/pCO 2 levels have been shown to impose restrictions on organismal performance. The giant mussel Choromytilus chorus forms intertidal and subtidal mussel beds in estuarine zones associated with fjords occurring in southern Chile and is an important aquacultural resource in Patagonia. In this study, we estimated the sensitivity of physiological traits and energy balance of C. chorus juveniles exposed to 3 pCO 2 treatments (500, 750, and 1200 μatm) for 30 d. Results showed that in acidified, high pCO 2 conditions, C. chorus juveniles had increased metabolic rates; however, other physiological traits (clearance and ingestion rates, ammonia excretion, absorption efficiency, growth rate, biomass production, net calcification, and dissolution rates) were not affected. These results suggest that when subjected to acidification, the adaptive response of C. chorus triggers tradeoffs among physiological traits that favor sustained feeding and growth in order to combat increased metabolic stress. As has been reported for other marine organisms, chronic exposure to variable pH/pCO 2 in their native habitats, such as estuarine zones, could explain the differential acclimatization capacity of giant mussels to cope with the increase in pCO 2 . Additionally, the fact that the mussels did not suffer from mortality indicates that increased pCO 2 levels may have chronic, but not lethal, effects on this species under these experimental conditions. © The authors 2017.https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/aei/v10/p267-278

Extremal t processes: Elliptical domain of attraction and a spectral representation

The extremal t process was proposed in the literature for modeling spatial extremes within a copula framework based on the extreme value limit of elliptical t distributions (Davison, Padoan and Ribatet (2012)). A major drawback of this max-stable model was the lack of a spectral representation such that for instance direct simulation was infeasible. The main contribution of this note is to propose such a spectral construction for the extremal t process. Interestingly, the extremal Gaussian process introduced by Schlather (2002) appears as a special case. We further highlight the role of the extremal t process as the maximum attractor for processes with finite-dimensional elliptical distributions. All results naturally also hold within the multivariate domain

Exploring functional regression for dynamic modeling of shallow landslides in South Tyrol, Italy

Shallow landslides are ubiquitous hazards in mountainous regions worldwide that arise from an interplay of static predisposing factors and dynamic preparatory and triggering conditions. Modeling shallow landslides at regional scales has leveraged data-driven approaches to separately investigate purely spatial landslide susceptibility and temporally varying conditions. Yet, the joint assessment of shallow landslides in space and time using data-driven methods remains challenging. Furthermore, dynamic factors have been typically included in data-driven landslide models as scalar predictors by employing aggregated descriptors over time (e.g., mean, maximum, or total precipitation over a defined time window), where many choices are possible for the considered time scales and aggregation operators. Therefore, incorporating the time-varying behavior of dynamic factors remains difficult.This study addresses these challenges by exploring Functional Generalized Additive Models (FGAMs) to predict the occurrence of shallow landslides in space and time within the Italian province of South Tyrol (7,400 km²). In contrast to conventional techniques, we test the benefits of using functional predictors to describe dynamic factors (e.g., precipitation and temperature) leading to landslide events. In other words, we evaluate dynamic factors as collections of measurements over time (i.e., time series). To do so, our approach uses a binomial FGAM to analyze the statistical associations between the static factors (scalar predictors), the dynamic weather conditions prior to a potential landslide occurrence (functional predictors), and the occurrence of shallow landslides in space and time.Potential outcomes of this novel approach show an overview of the added value of using functional predictors for space and time shallow landslide modeling. These research findings are positioned within the context of the PROSLIDE project, which has received financial support from the Research Südtirol/Alto Adige 2019 research program of the Autonomous Province of Bozen/Bolzano – Südtirol/Alto Adige

Statistics of counter-streaming solar wind suprathermal electrons at solar minimum : STEREO observations

Previous work has shown that solar wind suprathermal electrons can display a number of features in terms of their anisotropy. Of importance is the occurrence of counter-streaming electron patterns, i.e., with "beams" both parallel and anti-parallel to the local magnetic field, which is believed to shed light on the heliospheric magnetic field topology. In the present study, we use STEREO data to obtain the statistical properties of counter-streaming suprathermal electrons (CSEs) in the vicinity of corotating interaction regions (CIRs) during the period March–December 2007. Because this period corresponds to a minimum of solar activity, the results are unrelated to the sampling of large-scale coronal mass ejections, which can lead to CSE owing to their closed magnetic field topology. The present study statistically confirms that CSEs are primarily the result of suprathermal electron leakage from the compressed CIR into the upstream regions with the combined occurrence of halo depletion at 90° pitch angle. The occurrence rate of CSE is found to be about 15–20% on average during the period analyzed (depending on the criteria used), but superposed epoch analysis demonstrates that CSEs are preferentially observed both before and after the passage of the stream interface (with peak occurrence rate >35% in the trailing high speed stream), as well as both inside and outside CIRs. The results quantitatively show that CSEs are common in the solar wind during solar minimum, but yet they suggest that such distributions would be much more common if pitch angle scattering were absent. We further argue that (1) the formation of shocks contributes to the occurrence of enhanced counter-streaming sunward-directed fluxes, but does not appear to be a necessary condition, and (2) that the presence of small-scale transients with closed-field topologies likely also contributes to the occurrence of counter-streaming patterns, but only in the slow solar wind prior to CIRs

Pulmonary Hypertension in Patients with Chronic Fibrosing Idiopathic Interstitial Pneumonias

Background Pulmonary hypertension (PH) is a common finding in patients with chronic fibrosing idiopathic interstitial pneumonias (IIP). Little is known about the response to pulmonary vasodilator therapy in this patient population. COMPERA is an international registry that prospectively captures data from patients with various forms of PH receiving pulmonary vasodilator therapies. Methods We retrieved data from COMPERA to compare patient characteristics, treatment patterns, response to therapy and survival in newly diagnosed patients with idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension (IPAH) and PH associated with IIP (PH-IIP). Results Compared to patients with IPAH (n = 798), patients with PH-IIP (n = 151) were older and predominantly males. Patients with PH-IIP were treated predominantly with phosphodiesterase-5 inhibitors (88% at entry, 87% after 1 year). From baseline to the first follow-up visit, the median improvement in 6MWD was 30 m in patients with IPAH and 24.5 m in patients with PH-IIP (p = 0.457 for the difference between both groups). Improvements in NYHA functional class were observed in 22.4% and 29.5% of these patients, respectively (p = 0.179 for the difference between both groups). Survival rates were significantly worse in PH-IIP than in IPAH (3-year survival 34.0 versus 68.6%; p<0.001). Total lung capacity, NYHA class IV, and mixed-venous oxygen saturation were independent predictors of survival in patients with PH-IIP. Conclusions Patients with PH-IIP have a dismal prognosis. Our results suggest that pulmonary vasodilator therapy may be associated with short-term functional improvement in some of these patients but it is unclear whether this treatment affects survival