As Omicron Takes Hold and Other New Variants Arise, COVID-19 Testing Remains the Universally Agreed Tool to Effect Transition From Pandemic to Endemic State

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused more than 448 million cases and 6 million deaths worldwide to date. Omicron is now the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant, making up more than 90% of cases in countries reporting sequencing data. As the pandemic continues into its third year, continued testing is a strategic and necessary tool for transitioning to an endemic state of COVID-19. Here, we address three critical topics pertaining to the transition from pandemic to endemic: defining the endemic state for COVID-19, highlighting the role of SARS-CoV-2 testing as endemicity is approached, and recommending parameters for SARS-CoV-2 testing once endemicity is reached. We argue for an approach that capitalizes on the current public health momentum to increase capacity for PCR-based testing and whole genome sequencing to monitor emerging infectious diseases. Strategic development and utilization of testing, including viral panels in addition to vaccination, can keep SARS-CoV-2 in a manageable endemic state and build a framework of preparedness for the next pandemic

Decision Tree Algorithms Predict the Diagnosis and Outcome of Dengue Fever in the Early Phase of Illness

Dengue illness appears similar to other febrile illness, particularly in the early stages of disease. Consequently, diagnosis is often delayed or confused with other illnesses, reducing the effectiveness of using clinical diagnosis for patient care and disease surveillance. To address this shortcoming, we have studied 1,200 patients who presented within 72 hours from onset of fever; 30.3% of these had dengue infection, while the remaining 69.7% had other causes of fever. Using body temperature and the results of simple laboratory tests on blood samples of these patients, we have constructed a decision algorithm that is able to distinguish patients with dengue illness from those with other causes of fever with an accuracy of 84.7%. Another decision algorithm is able to predict which of the dengue patients would go on to develop severe disease, as indicated by an eventual drop in the platelet count to 50,000/mm3 blood or below. Our study shows a proof-of-concept that simple decision algorithms can predict dengue diagnosis and the likelihood of developing severe disease, a finding that could prove useful in the management of dengue patients and to public health efforts in preventing virus transmission

The Early Clinical Features of Dengue in Adults: Challenges for Early Clinical Diagnosis

Dengue infection in adults has become increasingly common throughout the world. As most of the clinical features of dengue have been described in children, we undertook a prospective study to determine the early symptoms and signs of dengue in adults. We show here that, overall, dengue cases presented with high rates of symptoms listed in the WHO 1997 or 2009 classification schemes for probable dengue fever thus resulting in high sensitivities of these schemes when applied for early diagnosis. However, symptoms such as myalgia, arthralgia, retro-orbital pain and mucosal bleeding were less frequently reported in older adults. This trend resulted in reduced sensitivity of the WHO classification schemes in older adults even though they showed increased risks of hospitalization and severe dengue. Instead, we suggest that older adults who present with fever and leukopenia should be tested for dengue, even in the absence of other symptoms. This could be useful for early clinical diagnosis in older adults so that they can be monitored and treated for severe dengue, which is especially important when an antiviral drug becomes available

The Geographic Synchrony of Seasonal Influenza: A Waves across Canada and the United States

BACKGROUND: As observed during the 2009 pandemic, a novel influenza virus can spread globally before the epidemic peaks locally. As consistencies in the relative timing and direction of spread could form the basis for an early alert system, the objectives of this study were to use the case-based reporting system for laboratory confirmed influenza from the Canadian FluWatch surveillance program to identify the geographic scale at which spatial synchrony exists and then to describe the geographic patterns of influenza A virus across Canada and in relationship to activity in the United States (US). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Weekly laboratory confirmations for influenza A were obtained from the Canadian FluWatch and the US FluView surveillance programs from 1997/98 to 2006/07. For the six seasons where at least 80% of the specimens were antigenically similar, we identified the epidemic midpoint of the local/regional/provincial epidemics and analyzed trends in the direction of spread. In three out of the six seasons, the epidemic appeared first in Canada. Regional epidemics were more closely synchronized across the US (3-5 weeks) compared to Canada (5-13 weeks), with a slight gradient in timing from the southwest regions in the US to northeast regions of Canada and the US. Cities, as well as rural areas within provinces, usually peaked within a couple of weeks of each other. The anticipated delay in peak activity between large cities and rural areas was not observed. In some mixed influenza A seasons, lack of synchronization sub-provincially was evident. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: As mixing between regions appears to be too weak to force a consistency in the direction and timing of spread, local laboratory-based surveillance is needed to accurately assess the level of influenza activity in the community. In comparison, mixing between urban communities and adjacent rural areas, and between some communities, may be sufficient to force synchronization

Usefulness and applicability of the revised dengue case classification by disease: multi-centre study in 18 countries

Background In view of the long term discussion on the appropriateness of the dengue classification into dengue fever (DF), dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS), the World Health Organization (WHO) has outlined in its new global dengue guidelines a revised classification into levels of severity: dengue fever with an intermediary group of "dengue fever with warning sings", and severe dengue. The objective of this paper was to compare the two classification systems regarding applicability in clinical practice and surveillance, as well as user-friendliness and acceptance by health staff. Methods A mix of quantitative (prospective and retrospective review of medical charts by expert reviewers, formal staff interviews), semi-quantitative (open questions in staff interviews) and qualitative methods (focus group discussions) were used in 18 countries. Quality control of data collected was undertaken by external monitors. Results The applicability of the DF/DHF/DSS classification was limited, even when strict DHF criteria were not applied (13.7% of dengue cases could not be classified using the DF/DHF/DSS classification by experienced reviewers, compared to only 1.6% with the revised classification). The fact that some severe dengue cases could not be classified in the DF/DHF/DSS system was of particular concern. Both acceptance and perceived user-friendliness of the revised system were high, particularly in relation to triage and case management. The applicability of the revised classification to retrospective data sets (of importance for dengue surveillance) was also favourable. However, the need for training, dissemination and further research on the warning signs was highlighted. Conclusions The revised dengue classification has a high potential for facilitating dengue case management and surveillance

Economic Impact of Dengue Illness and the Cost-Effectiveness of Future Vaccination Programs in Singapore

Dengue illness is a tropical disease transmitted by mosquitoes that threatens more than one third of the worldwide population. Dengue has important economic consequences because of the burden to hospitals, work absenteeism and risk of death of symptomatic cases. Governments attempt to reduce the disease burden using costly mosquito control strategies such as habitat reduction and spraying insecticide. Despite such efforts, the number of cases remains high. Dengue vaccines are expected to be available in the near future and there is an urgent need to evaluate their cost-effectiveness, i.e. whether their cost will be justified by the reduction in disease burden they bring. For such an evaluation, we estimated the economic impacts of dengue in Singapore and the expected vaccine costs for different prices. In this way we estimated price thresholds for which vaccination is not cost-effective. This research provides useful estimates that will contribute to informed decisions regarding the adoption of dengue vaccination programs

Recent Emergence of Dengue Virus Serotype 4 in French Polynesia Results from Multiple Introductions from Other South Pacific Islands

BACKGROUND: Infection by dengue virus (DENV) is a major public health concern in hundreds of tropical and subtropical countries. French Polynesia (FP) regularly experiences epidemics that initiate, or are consecutive to, DENV circulation in other South Pacific Island Countries (SPICs). In January 2009, after a decade of serotype 1 (DENV-1) circulation, the first cases of DENV-4 infection were reported in FP. Two months later a new epidemic emerged, occurring about 20 years after the previous circulation of DENV-4 in FP. In this study, we investigated the epidemiological and molecular characteristics of the introduction, spread and genetic microevolution of DENV-4 in FP. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Epidemiological data suggested that recent transmission of DENV-4 in FP started in the Leeward Islands and this serotype quickly displaced DENV-1 throughout FP. Phylogenetic analyses of the nucleotide sequences of the envelope (E) gene of 64 DENV-4 strains collected in FP in the 1980s and in 2009-2010, and some additional strains from other SPICs showed that DENV-4 strains from the SPICs were distributed into genotypes IIa and IIb. Recent FP strains were distributed into two clusters, each comprising viruses from other but distinct SPICs, suggesting that emergence of DENV-4 in FP in 2009 resulted from multiple introductions. Otherwise, we observed that almost all strains collected in the SPICs in the 1980s exhibit an amino acid (aa) substitution V287I within domain I of the E protein, and all recent South Pacific strains exhibit a T365I substitution within domain III. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study confirmed the cyclic re-emergence and displacement of DENV serotypes in FP. Otherwise, our results showed that specific aa substitutions on the E protein were present on all DENV-4 strains circulating in SPICs. These substitutions probably acquired and subsequently conserved could reflect a founder effect to be associated with epidemiological, geographical, eco-biological and social specificities in SPICs

Application of a targeted-enrichment methodology for full-genome sequencing of Dengue 1-4, Chikungunya and Zika viruses directly from patient samples.

The frequency of epidemics caused by Dengue viruses 1-4, Zika virus and Chikungunya viruses have been on an upward trend in recent years driven primarily by uncontrolled urbanization, mobility of human populations and geographical spread of their shared vectors, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Infections by these viruses present with similar clinical manifestations making them challenging to diagnose; this is especially difficult in regions of the world hyperendemic for these viruses. In this study, we present a targeted-enrichment methodology to simultaneously sequence the complete viral genomes for each of these viruses directly from clinical samples. Additionally, we have also developed a customized computational tool (BaitMaker) to design these enrichment baits. This methodology is robust in its ability to capture diverse sequences and is amenable to large-scale epidemiological studies. We have applied this methodology to two large cohorts: a febrile study based in Colombo, Sri Lanka taken during the 2009-2015 dengue epidemic (n = 170) and another taken during the 2016 outbreak of Zika virus in Singapore (n = 162). Results from these studies indicate that we were able to cover an average of 97.04% ± 0.67% of the full viral genome from samples in these cohorts. We also show detection of one DENV3/ZIKV co-infected patient where we recovered full genomes for both viruses

Involvement of the Efflux Pumps in Chloramphenicol Selected Strains of Burkholderia thailandensis: Proteomic and Mechanistic Evidence

Burkholderia is a bacterial genus comprising several pathogenic species, including two species highly pathogenic for humans, B. pseudomallei and B. mallei. B. thailandensis is a weakly pathogenic species closely related to both B. pseudomallei and B. mallei. It is used as a study model. These bacteria are able to exhibit multiple resistance mechanisms towards various families of antibiotics. By sequentially plating B. thailandensis wild type strains on chloramphenicol we obtained several resistant variants. This chloramphenicol-induced resistance was associated with resistance against structurally unrelated antibiotics including quinolones and tetracyclines. We functionally and proteomically demonstrate that this multidrug resistance phenotype, identified in chloramphenicol-resistant variants, is associated with the overexpression of two different efflux pumps. These efflux pumps are able to expel antibiotics from several families, including chloramphenicol, quinolones, tetracyclines, trimethoprim and some β-lactams, and present a partial susceptibility to efflux pump inhibitors. It is thus possible that Burkholderia species can develop such adaptive resistance mechanisms in response to antibiotic pressure resulting in emergence of multidrug resistant strains. Antibiotics known to easily induce overexpression of these efflux pumps should be used with discernment in the treatment of Burkholderia infections

Characterization of early host responses in adults with dengue disease

BACKGROUND: While dengue-elicited early and transient host responses preceding defervescence could shape the disease outcome and reveal mechanisms of the disease pathogenesis, assessment of these responses are difficult as patients rarely seek healthcare during the first days of benign fever and thus data are lacking. METHODS: In this study, focusing on early recruitment, we performed whole-blood transcriptional profiling on dengue virus PCR positive patients sampled within 72 h of self-reported fever presentation (average 43 h, SD 18.6 h) and compared the signatures with autologous samples drawn at defervescence and convalescence and to control patients with fever of other etiology. RESULTS: In the early dengue fever phase, a strong activation of the innate immune response related genes were seen that was absent at defervescence (4-7 days after fever debut), while at this second sampling genes related to biosynthesis and metabolism dominated. Transcripts relating to the adaptive immune response were over-expressed in the second sampling point with sustained activation at the third sampling. On an individual gene level, significant enrichment of transcripts early in dengue disease were chemokines CCL2 (MCP-1), CCL8 (MCP-2), CXCL10 (IP-10) and CCL3 (MIP-1α), antimicrobial peptide β-defensin 1 (DEFB1), desmosome/intermediate junction component plakoglobin (JUP) and a microRNA which may negatively regulate pro-inflammatory cytokines in dengue infected peripheral blood cells, mIR-147 (NMES1). CONCLUSIONS: These data show that the early response in patients mimics those previously described in vitro, where early assessment of transcriptional responses has been easily obtained. Several of the early transcripts identified may be affected by or mediate the pathogenesis and deserve further assessment at this timepoint in correlation to severe disease