The financial stress index: identification of systemic risk conditions

This paper develops a financial stress index for the United States, the Cleveland Financial Stress Index (CFSI), which provides a continuous signal of financial stress and broad coverage of the areas that could indicate it. The index is based on daily public-market data collected from four sectors of the fi nancial markets—the credit, foreign exchange, equity, and interbank markets. A dynamic weighting method is employed to capture changes in the relative importance of these four sectors as they occur. In addition, the design of the index allows the origin of the stress to be identified. We compare the CFSI to alternative indexes, using a detailed benchmarking methodology, and show how the CFSI can be applied to systemic stress monitoring and early warning system design. To that end, we investigate alternative stress-signaling thresholds and frequency regimes and then establish optimal frequencies for filtering out market noise and idiosyncratic episodes. Finally, we quantify a powerful CFSI-based rating system that assigns a probability of systemic stress to ranges of CFSI outcomes.Systemic risk ; Risk assessment

SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk

This paper builds on existing microprudential and macroprudential early warning systems (EWSs) to develop a new, hybrid class of models for systemic risk, incorporating the structural characteristics of the fi nancial system and a feedback amplification mechanism. The models explain fi nancial stress using both public and proprietary supervisory data from systemically important institutions, regressing institutional imbalances using an optimal lag method. The Systemic Assessment of Financial Environment (SAFE) EWS monitors microprudential information from the largest bank holding companies to anticipate the buildup of macroeconomic stresses in the financial markets. To mitigate inherent uncertainty, SAFE develops a set of medium-term forecasting specifi cations that gives policymakers enough time to take ex-ante policy action and a set of short-term forecasting specifications for verification and adjustment of supervisory actions. This paper highlights the application of these models to stress testing, scenario analysis, and policy.Systemic risk ; Liquidity (Economics)

Magnetic endohedral metallofullerenes with floppy interiors

It is shown that Gd3N@C80 is a highly magnetic and very stable motif that allows enhanced contrast magnetic resonance imaging and electric dipole moment with potential for cancer treatment. Using a synergistic approach combining Stern-Gerlach experiments in beams and first-principles electronic structure studies, it is demonstrated that an isolated Gd3N has a ground state spin moment of 23μBfollowed by a noncollinear state of 17.2μB only 88meV above the ground state. The large moment is largely due to localized f electrons. As a Gd3N is embedded inside a C80 cage, the localized felectrons maintain the magnetic character while the hybridization between the s, d states of isolated Gd3N and p states of C80 leads to a strongly bound motif with an interaction energy of 13.63eV and a large highest-occupied-molecular-orbital–lowest-unoccupied-molecular-orbital gap of 1.48eV. Gd3N@C80 is further shown to possess two isomers corresponding to the location of the N atom on either side of the Gd3 triangle with an appreciable electric dipole moment and a low barrier of 91meVfor transition between them offering potential for a fluctuating dipole

Using the Rosat Catalogue to find Counterparts for Unidentified Objects in the 1st Fermi/LAT Catalogue

There are a total of 1451 gamma-ray emitting objects in the Fermi Large Area Telescope First Source Catalogue. The point source location accuracy of typically a few arcminutes has allowed the counterparts for many of these sources to be found at other wavelengths, but even so there are 630 which are described as having no plausible counterpart at 80% confidence. In order to help identify the unknown objects, we have cross-correlated the positions of these sources with the Rosat All Sky Survey Bright Source Catalogue. In this way, for Fermi sources which have a possible counterpart in soft X-rays, we can use the, much smaller, Rosat error box to search for identifications. We find a strong correlation between the two samples and calculate that there are about 60 sources with a Rosat counterpart. Using the Rosat error boxes we provide tentative associations for half of them, demonstrate that the majority of these are either blazars or blazar candidates and give evidence that most belong to the BL Lac class. Given that they are X-ray selected and most are high synchrotron peaked objects, which indicates the presence of high energy electrons, these sources are also good candidates for TeV emission, and therefore good probes of the extragalactic background light.Comment: 9 pages, 1 figure; Accepted for publication in MNRA

A novel school-based intervention to improve nutrition knowledge in children: cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Improving nutrition knowledge among children may help them to make healthier food choices. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness and acceptability of a novel educational intervention to increase nutrition knowledge among primary school children. METHODS: We developed a card game 'Top Grub' and a 'healthy eating' curriculum for use in primary schools. Thirty-eight state primary schools comprising 2519 children in years 5 and 6 (aged 9-11 years) were recruited in a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial. The main outcome measures were change in nutrition knowledge scores, attitudes to healthy eating and acceptability of the intervention by children and teachers. RESULTS: Twelve intervention and 13 control schools (comprising 1133 children) completed the trial. The main reason for non-completion was time pressure of the school curriculum. Mean total nutrition knowledge score increased by 1.1 in intervention (baseline to follow-up: 28.3 to 29.2) and 0.3 in control schools (27.3 to 27.6). Total nutrition knowledge score at follow-up, adjusted for baseline score, deprivation, and school size, was higher in intervention than in control schools (mean difference = 1.1; 95% CI: 0.05 to 2.16; p = 0.042). At follow-up, more children in the intervention schools said they 'are currently eating a healthy diet' (39.6%) or 'would try to eat a healthy diet' (35.7%) than in control schools (34.4% and 31.7% respectively; chi-square test p < 0.001). Most children (75.5%) enjoyed playing the game and teachers considered it a useful resource. CONCLUSIONS: The 'Top Grub' card game facilitated the enjoyable delivery of nutrition education in a sample of UK primary school age children. Further studies should determine whether improvements in nutrition knowledge are sustained and lead to changes in dietary behaviour.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Vacancy Ordering in O3-Type Layered Metal Oxide Sodium-Ion Battery Cathodes

Current state-of-the-art Na-ion battery cathodes are selected from the broad chemical space of layered first-row transition-metal (TM) oxides. Unlike their lithium-ion counterparts, seven first-row layered TM oxides can intercalate Na ions reversibly. Their voltage curves indicate significant and numerous reversible phase transformations during electrochemical cycling. These transformations are not yet fully understood but arise from Na-ion vacancy ordering and metal oxide slab glide. In this study, we investigate the nature of vacancy ordering within the O3 host lattice framework. We generate predicted electrochemical voltage curves for each of the Na-ion intercalating layered TM oxides by using a high-throughput framework of density-functional-theory calculations. We determine a set of vacancy-ordered phases appearing as ground states in all Na[subscript x]MO[subscript 2] systems and investigate the energy effect of the stacking of adjacent layers.Samsung Advanced Institute of Technolog

Elasticity tailoring of a composite D-Spar: Progress report for calendar year 1998

There are many potential benefits to be gained from the aeroelastic behavior of a wind-turbine blade with bend-twist coupling. However, the ability to manufacture blades with sufficient coupling to provide the desired benefits has yet to be established. This report investigates the feasible (or practical) range of the coupling coefficient that can be obtained on a uniform cross-section composite D-spar, which could be the backbone of a wind-turbine-blade. The most critical parameters are identified and studied across a range of possible values. Various features, such as the geometry, skin thickness, ply distribution, ply materials, and ply orientations, are evaluated for their effect on twist-bend coupling of a D-spar. It is found that sufficient coupling can be built into the D-spar shape, but that carbon-fiber composite plies angled between 15 and 30 degrees to the longitudinal axis may be required