Inferring the dynamics of rising radical right-wing party support using Gaussian processes

The use of classical regression techniques in social science can prevent the discovery of complex, nonlinear mechanisms, and often relies too heavily on both the expertise and prior expectations of the data analyst. In this paper, we present a regression methodology that combines the interpretability of traditional, well used, statistical methods with the full predictability and flexibility of Bayesian statistics techniques. Our modelling approach allow us to find and explain the mechanisms behind the rise of Radical Right-wing Populist parties (RRPs), that we would have been unable to find using traditional methods. Using Swedish municipality level data (2002-2018) we find no evidence that the proportion of foreignborn residents is predictive of increases in RRP support. Instead, education levels and population density are the significant variables that impact the change in support for the RRP, in addition to spatial and temporal control variables. We argue that our methodology, which produces models with considerably better fit of the complexity and nonlinearities often found in social systems, provides a better tool for hypothesis testing and exploration of theories about RRPs and other social movements

Discursive opportunities and the evolution of right-wing violence in Germany

This article explores the link between violence and public discourse. It suggests that media attention to radical right violence and public reactions to violence affect the clustering of targets and the temporal and spatial distribution of violence. The notion of "discursive opportunities" is introduced, and the article argues that it can serve to link political opportunity structure and framing perspectives on collective action. Using a cross-sectional and time-series design to model event counts in states in Germany, this study finds that differential public visibility, resonance, and legitimacy of right-wing violence significantly affected the rate of violence against different target groups