A surface water flooding impact library for flood risk assessment

The growing demand for improved risk-based Surface Water Flooding (SWF) warning systems is evident in EU directives and in the UK Government’s Pitt Review of the 2007 summer floods. This paper presents a novel approach for collating receptor and vulnerability datasets via the concept of an Impact Library, developed by the Health and Safety Laboratory as a depository of pre-calculated impact information on SWF risk for use in a real-time SWF Hazard Impact Model (HIM). This has potential benefits for the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) as the organisation responsible for the issuing of flood guidance information for England and Wales. The SWF HIM takes a pixel-based approach to link probabilistic surface water runoff forecasts produced by CEH’s Grid-to-Grid hydrological model with Impact Library information to generate impact assessments. These are combined to estimate flood risk as a combination of impact severity and forecast likelihood, at 1km pixel level, and summarised for counties and local authorities. The SWF HIM takes advantage of recent advances in operational ensemble forecasting of rainfall by the Met Office and of SWF by the Environment Agency and CEH working together through the FFC. Results are presented for a case study event which affected the North East of England during 2012. The work has been developed through the UK’s Natural Hazards Partnership (NHP), a group of organisations gathered to provide information, research and analysis on natural hazards for civil contingencies, government and responders across the UK

The Importance of Combinatorial Gene Expression in Early Mammalian Thalamic Patterning and Thalamocortical Axonal Guidance

The thalamus is essential for sensory perception. In mammals, work on the mouse has taught us most of what we know about how it develops and connects to the cortex. The mature thalamus of all mammalian species comprises numerous anatomically distinct collections of neurons called nuclei that differ in function, connectivity, and molecular constitution. At the time of its initial appearance as a distinct structure following neural tube closure, the thalamus is already patterned by the regional expression of numerous regulatory genes. This patterning, which lays down the blueprint for later development of thalamic nuclei, predates the development of thalamocortical projections. In this review we apply novel analytical methods to gene expression data available in the Allen Developing Mouse Brain Atlas to highlight the complex organized molecular heterogeneity already present among cells in the thalamus from the earliest stages at which it contains differentiating neurons. This early patterning is likely to invest in axons growing from different parts of the thalamus the ability to navigate in an ordered way to their appropriate area in the cerebral cortex. We review the mechanisms and cues that thalamic axons use, encounter, and interpret to attain the cortex. Mechanisms include guidance by previously generated guidepost cells, such as those in the subpallium that maintain thalamic axonal order and direction, and axons such as those of reciprocal projections from intermediate structures or from the cortex itself back toward the thalamus. We show how thalamocortical pathfinding involves numerous guidance cues operating at a series of steps along their route. We stress the importance of the combinatorial actions of multiple genes for the development of the numerous specific identities and functions of cells in this exquisitely complex system and their orderly innervation of the cortex

Environmental distributions of benzo[a]pyrene in China:current and future emission reduction scenarios explored using a spatially explicit multimedia fate model

SESAMe v3.0, a spatially explicit multimedia fate model with 50 × 50 km(2) resolution, has been developed for China to predict environmental concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) using an atmospheric emission inventory for 2007. Model predictions are compared with environmental monitoring data obtained from an extensive review of the literature. The model performs well in predicting multimedia concentrations and distributions. Predicted concentrations are compared with guideline values; highest values with some exceedances occur mainly in the North China Plain, Mid Inner Mongolia, and parts of three northeast provinces, Xi'an, Shanghai, and south of Jiangsu province, East Sichuan Basin, middle of Guizhou and Guangzhou. Two potential future scenarios have been assessed using SESAMe v3.0 for 2030 as BaP emission is reduced by (1) technological improvement for coal consumption in energy production and industry sectors in Scenario 1 (Sc1) and (2) technological improvement and control of indoor biomass burning for cooking and indoor space heating and prohibition of open burning of biomass in 2030 in Scenario 2 (Sc2). Sc2 is more efficient in reducing the areas with exceedance of guideline values. Use of SESAMe v3.0 provides insights on future research needs and can inform decision making on options for source reduction

Exercise-induced bronchoconstriction in athletes – A qualitative assessment of symptom perception

© 2016Background A poor relationship between perceived respiratory symptoms and objective evidence of exercise-induced bronchoconstriction (EIB) in athletes is often reported; however, the reasons for this disconnect remain unclear. The primary aim of this study was to utilise a qualitative-analytical approach to compare respiratory symptoms in athletes with and without objectively confirmed EIB. Methods Endurance athletes who had previously undergone bronchoprovocation test screening for EIB were divided into sub-groups, based on the presence or absence of EIB ± heightened self-report of dyspnoea: (i) EIB-Dys- (ii) EIB + Dys+ (iii) EIB + Dys- (iv) EIB-Dys+. All athletes underwent a detailed semi-structured interview. Results Twenty athletes completed the study with an equal distribution in each sub-group (n = 5). Thematic analysis of individual narratives resulted in four over-arching themes: 1) Factors aggravating dyspnoea, 2) Exercise limitation, 3) Strategies to control dyspnoea, 4) Diagnostic accuracy. The anatomical location of symptoms varied between EIB + Dys + athletes and EIB-Dys + athletes. All EIB-Dys + reported significantly longer recovery times following high-intensity exercise in comparison to all other sub-groups. Finally, EIB + Dys + reported symptom improvement following beta-2 agonist therapy, whereas EIB-Dys + deemed treatment ineffective. Conclusion A detailed qualitative approach to the assessment of breathlessness reveals few features that distinguish between EIB and non-EIB causes of exertional dyspnoea in athletes. Important differences that may provide value in clinical work-up include (i) location of symptoms, (ii) recovery time following exercise and (iii) response to beta-2 agonist therapy. Overall these findings may inform clinical evaluation and development of future questionnaires to aid clinic-based assessment of athletes with dyspnoea

Expanding the realms of sport psychology in esports: an epilogue

In this epilogue to the special issue, we provide a summary of four case studies in esports. Specifically, we draw attention to (1) interventions with teams and esports athletes, (2) coach support and development, and (3) practitioner development. We explore these areas in relation to the case studies presented in the special issue, providing a structured analysis and discussion of the experiences shared in these case studies and shedding light on how sport psychology is applied in esports. Lastly, we offer future research and practice opportunities for those intending to practice or currently practicing in the realm of esports

Second waves, social distancing, and the spread of COVID-19 across America

We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new cases that may result from loss of immunity--and the exchange of people between regions--and how mortality rates can be ameliorated under different strategic responses. In particular, we consider hard or soft social distancing strategies predicated on national (Federal) or regional (State) estimates of the prevalence of infection in the population. The modelling is demonstrated using timeseries of new cases and deaths from the United States to estimate the parameters of a factorial (compartmental) epidemiological model of each State and, crucially, coupling between States. Using Bayesian model reduction, we identify the effective connectivity between States that best explains the initial phases of the outbreak in the United States. Using the ensuing posterior parameter estimates, we then evaluate the likely outcomes of different policies in terms of mortality, working days lost due to lockdown and demands upon critical care. The provisional results of this modelling suggest that social distancing and loss of immunity are the two key factors that underwrite a return to endemic equilibrium.Comment: Technical report: 35 pages, 14 figures, 1 tabl

Using Empirical Phase Diagrams to Understand the Role of Intramolecular Dynamics in Immunoglobulin G Stability

Understanding the relationship between protein dynamics and stability is of paramount importance to the fields of biology and pharmaceutics. Clarifying this relationship is complicated by the large amount of experimental data that must be generated and analyzed if motions that exist over the wide range of timescales are to be included. To address this issue, we propose an approach that utilizes a multidimensional vector-based empirical phase diagram (EPD) to analyze a set of dynamic results acquired across a temperature-pH perturbation plane. This approach is applied to a humanized immunoglobulin G1 (IgG1), a protein of major biological and pharmaceutical importance whose dynamic nature is linked to its multiple biological roles. Static and dynamic measurements are used to characterize the IgG and to construct both static and dynamic empirical phase diagrams. Between pH 5 and 8, a single, pH-dependent transition is observed that corresponds to thermal unfolding of the IgG. Under more acidic conditions, evidence exists for the formation of a more compact, aggregation resistant state of the immunoglobulin, known as A-form. The dynamics-based EPD presents a considerably more detailed pattern of apparent phase transitions over the temperature-pH plane. The utility and potential applications of this approach are discussed

Effective immunity and second waves: a dynamic causal modelling study

This technical report addresses a pressing issue in the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak; namely, the rate at which effective immunity is lost following the first wave of the pandemic. This is a crucial epidemiological parameter that speaks to both the consequences of relaxing lockdown and the propensity for a second wave of infections. Using a dynamic causal model of reported cases and deaths from multiple countries, we evaluated the evidence models of progressively longer periods of immunity. The results speak to an effective population immunity of about three months that, under the model, defers any second wave for approximately six months in most countries. This may have implications for the window of opportunity for tracking and tracing, as well as for developing vaccination programmes, and other therapeutic interventions.Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures, 3 tables (technical report