Assessing French Inflation Persistence with Impulse Saturation Break Tests and Automatic General-to-Specific Modelling

This paper has three different motivations. Firstly, we wish to contribute to the debate on whether French inflation has been persistent since the mid-eighties. Empirical evidence in this domain has been mixed. We use the standard method of testing for breaks in the mean of the inflation series to conclude whether possible unit root findings are the result of neglected breaks. Then, we build standard autoregressive representations of inflation, using an automatic general-to-specific approach. We conclude against inflation persistence in the sample period, and the point estimates of persistence we obtain are several percentage points below those achieved with other break tests and model selection methods. Moreover, our final model is congruent. Secondly, we provide the first empirical application of the new impulse saturation break test. The resulting estimates of the break dates are in line with other literature findings and have a sound economic meaning, confirming the good performance the test had revealed in theoretical and simulation studies. Finally, we also illustrate the shortcomings of the Bai-Perron test when applied to a small sample with high serial correlation. Indeed, we show the Bai- Perron break dates’ estimates would not allow us to build a congruent autoregressive representation of inflation.Inflation Persistence, Break Tests, Model Selection, General-to-Specific

The impact of gender clues in packaging on consumers’ purchase intentions and the mediating role of brand image

In the highly competitive world of FMCG, firms fight to differentiate their products and make them stand out in the eyes of the consumer. Hence, the packaging assumes an important role in grabbing consumers’ attention and in influencing them to make decisions. In order to study the impact of gender clues in packaging on consumers’ purchase intentions, this dissertation focuses on analyzing products in the wine’s category, namely, rosé wine. The methodology comprises primary data, obtained through qualitative research in the form of in-depth interviews, and quantitative research in the form of an online questionnaire. In fact, the findings illustrate that including gender clues in the packaging of rosé wines has a positive effect on consumers’ purchase intentions. Furthermore, results suggest that there is an indirect effect of brand image on the relationship between the variables. This effect has a positive impact and it is statistically significant, validating that there is partial mediation. Finally, in current times when gender and gender identity is one of the hottest topics, this dissertation opens the door for numerous possibilities regarding research about the role of gender in Consumer Packed Goods.No mundo altamente competitivo dos bens de grande consumo, as empresas lutam para diferenciar os seus produtos e fazê-los destacar-se aos olhos dos consumidores. Assim, a embalagem assume um papel importante na forma como capta a atenção dos consumidores e como os influencia a tomarem decisões. Por forma a estudar o impacto das pistas de género na embalagem nas intenções de compra dos consumidores, a seguinte dissertação foca-se na análise de produtos na categoria dos vinhos, nomeadamente, o vinho rosé. A metodologia inclui dados primários, obtidos através de pesquisa qualitativa na forma de entrevistas, e quantitativa na forma de um questionário online. Os resultados obtidos ilustram que, de facto, a inclusão de pistas de género nas embalagens de vinho rosé tem um efeito positivo nas intenções de compra dos consumidores. Adicionalmente, os resultados sugerem que existe um efeito indireto da variável imagem de marca na relação entre as variáveis. Este efeito é positivo e estatisticamente significante, provando que existe mediação parcial. Concluindo, sendo o género e a identidade de género um dos temas mais falados da atualidade, esta dissertação abre portas a inúmeras possibilidades no que toca a pesquisa sobre o papel do género no setor dos bens de grande consumo

A Arterapia: Os Efeitos Terapêuticos da Expressão Plástica e a sua Influência no Comportamento e Comunicação da Criança

p. 27-33A Arte, particularmente a Expressão Plástica, possui efeitos terapêuticos, daí ser um excelente meio para atenuar, se não resolver, determinados problemas de comportamento e comunicação que algumas crianças apresentam no Jardim de Infância. A Arteterapia defende que a Arte proporciona momentos de interacção óptimos à criança e que esta, em contacto com materiais e técnicas adequadas, ou seja, através de um percurso criativo, desencadeia um processo de recuperação, indispensável ao seu desenvolvimento e crescimento pessoal. Convictos desta realidade, procurámos, partindo do modelo terapêutico, analisar de que modo a Expressão Plástica contribui para a expressão do mundo interior da criança e compreender a forma como é estimulada a sua criatividade, fantasia e imaginação, assim como reflectir sobre a prática pedagógica e artística do educador, com vista a fornecer-lhe pistas orientadoras, enquanto motivador e facilitador do processo artístico

Modelling the German Yield Curve and Testing the Lucas Critique

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Sovereign CDS contagion in the European Union: a multivariate GARCH-in-variables analysis of volatility spill-overs

GARCH-with-variables model is used to assess volatility contagion in the Eurozone Debt Crisis. Credit Default Swaps on sovereign debt with 3 years maturity are used as a reference financial instrument, covering the sample period from 2008-2013. Daily data on Credit Default Swaps is used. We conclude that there is strong statistical evidence of volatility contagion in CDS spreads from the Eurozone periphery to its core. However, the direction of contagion is contingent on the periphery and core countries being assessed. As such, German 3 year CDS on sovereign debt mean equation is to vulnerable to Portuguese and to Greek CDS volatility, whilst German sovereign CDS volatility is vulnerable to greek one day lagged sovereign volatility. Differently, France’s sovereign debt Credit Default Swaps are only exposed to Spanish and Italian sovereign CDS in the mean equation. Exposure to greek lagged one day volatility exists as well.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Public policy, policy-making and social entrepreneurship : the case of Portugal and the UK

This study aims to explain how governments engage in policy-making and construct public policy for social entrepreneurship, based on the experiences of two countries, Portugal, and the UK. Also, it explains how different policy scopes influence the country’s policy. Social entrepreneurship is increasingly drawing attention from researchers, communities, and policy-makers. Government’s support has been key for developing social entrepreneurship in Portugal and UK, which actively implement policy and institutional frameworks regarding this phenomenon. However, research has yet to explain how they engage in public policy and policy-making for social entrepreneurship. We’ve collected and analysed more than 200 policy documents from Portugal and the UK, in order to build a conceptual framework, as well as gather data to determine the policy scope. The findings suggest that public policy and policy-making for social entrepreneurship comprise four dimensions: policy-making, government action, social entrepreneurship legitimacy and social entrepreneurship sustainability. Both countries present different levels of policy development, with the UK on a mature stage, and Portugal on a growing path. Findings also suggested the UK focuses on primary public policy and Portugal on secondary public policy for social entrepreneurship. This study contributes to theory and practice since it establishes for the first time a comprehensive conceptual framework explaining how public policy and policy-making are done at the national level. The conceptual framework also contributes for social entrepreneurs to better understand the process and allows them to do more informed decision-making on the long-term, as well as establishing a starting point for future research.O objectivo deste estudo é explicar como os governos decidem e constroem políticas públicas para empreendedorismo social, assim como o seu âmbito, baseando-se na experiência de Portugal e do Reino Unido. O empreendedorismo social tem atraído atenção de investigadores, comunidades e decisores políticos. Os governos têm sido chave para o desenvolvimento deste fenómeno em Portugal e no Reino Unido, ativos na implementação de quadros institucionais e políticos para empreendedorismo social. Contudo, o trabalho de investigação ainda não explicou como é que estes governos decidem e criam as suas políticas públicas para empreendedorismo social. Foram reunidos e analisados mais de 200 documentos relativos às políticas de Portugal e do Reino Unido, com o objectivo de construir um quadro conceptual, assim como determinar o âmbito destas políticas. Os resultados sugerem que o processo de decisão e criação destas políticas tem quatro dimensões: decisão política, acção governamental, legitimidade e sustentabilidade do empreendedorismo social. Estes países apresentam níveis diferentes de desenvolvimento das políticas públicas, com o Reino Unido numa fase mais madura, e Portugal num caminho de crescimento. Os resultados também sugerem que o Reino Unido se foca mais em políticas públicas primárias e Portugal em políticas secundárias para o empreendedorismo social. Este estudo estabelece pela primeira vez um quadro conceptual abrangente sobre a forma como políticas para empreendedorismo social são formuladas e criadas. Este quadro permite também que aos empreendedores sociais tenham uma melhor compreensão do processo e tomem decisões mais informadas a longo prazo, estabelecendo um ponto de partida para futura investigação

Assessing French inflation persistence with impulse saturation break tests and automatic general-to-specific modelling

This paper has three different motivations. Firstly, we wish to contribute to the debate on whether French inflation has been persistent since the mid-eighties. Empirical evidence in this domain has been mixed. We use the standard method of testing for breaks in the mean of the inflation series to conclude whether possible unit root findings are the result of neglected breaks. Then, we build standard autoregressive representations of inflation, using an automatic general-to-specific approach. We conclude against inflation persistence in the sample period, and the point estimates of persistence we obtain are several percentage points below those achieved with other break tests and model selection methods. Moreover, our final model is congruent. Secondly, we provide the first empirical application of the new impulse saturation break test. The resulting estimates of the break dates are in line with other literature findings and have a sound economic meaning, confirming the good performance the test had revealed in theoretical and simulation studies. Finally, we also illustrate the shortcomings of the Bai-Perron test when applied to a small sample with high serial correlation. Indeed, we show the Bai-Perron break dates’ estimates would not allow us to build a congruent autoregressive representation of inflation

An Overlapping Generations Model of the Savings Rate Decline: The Case of Portugal

Using an overlapping generations model, we argue that a decline in the savings rate, such as the one that has been observed in Portugal over the past 30 years, may be motivated by an increase in the discount factor. This is a standard result for macroeconomic models with agents that live for two periods. However, we innovate in proxying empirically the discount factor by a number of items, such as the fertility rate and the marriage rate. A decline in these suggests that people value the present over the future. As such the discount factor increases. As it turns out, both variables are empirically significant in our econometric analysis and have the correct sign. Furthermore, Ricardian Equivalence effects seem to be absent from the savings behavior of Portuguese households, as increases in public debt are met with decreases in savings by households. Government expenditure is not being perceived as levying higher taxes in the future. Finally, we also show that precautionary saving motivated by the increase in the unemployment rate is only relevant for rates below 6,5%. Above this threshold, the decline in savings due to the decline in income is estimated to be the dominant effect, which becomes dramatic when we consider the current rate of nearly 16%. Portuguese households are simply unable to save currently. The empirical implications of our analysis are staggering, as they question the effectiveness of any austerity program that does rely on higher taxes: these are a tantamount to lower savings rate, which in turn increase country default probabilities, as measured in CDS and bond markets.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Revitalização da Marginal do Mindelo

As relações das cidades com suas frentes de água (waterfront) têm-se tornado tema de grande actualidade do urbanismo contemporâneo. A revitalização de zonas, urbano-portuárias subutilizados é parte desse movimento e elemento paradigmático das políticas urbanísticas mais avançadas das cidades portuárias modernas. Reflectir sobre esses processos buscando parale-los para o contexto da cidade do Mindelo é a base principal desta dissertação. Desta forma, esta dissertação tem como tema de desenvolvimento “os espaços públicos e a revitalização da antiga área portuária e da faixa da marginal”