Effect of round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) invasion on blue mussel (Mytilus edulis trossulus) population and winter diet of the long-tailed duck (Clangula hyemalis)

The invasive round goby has established a viable population within 9 years of its first introduction to Lithuanian coastal waters (SE Baltic Sea). During its expansion phase, abundances increased 23-fold, which led to the near complete eradication of its main prey, the blue mussel, at < 20 m depth. The round goby population showed a stabilizing trend after blue mussel biomass was depleted; however, their abundance has not declined. The round goby feeds efficiently on newly settled mollusks, causing a severe constraint for blue mussel recovery. Changes in blue mussel availability and size structure induced a dietary shift in wintering long-tailed duck towards fish prey. An energetically dense food source sustains a good body condition in long-tailed ducks, however the change in trophic position (from 3.1 to 4.3 trophic level) suggests the potential for a reduction in their carrying capacity. Results from this study also show that coastal habitats with low and unpredictable population dynamics of blue mussel become less attractive wintering sites for long-tailed duck in the Baltic Sea. We also document a cascading effect of invasive species in the food web

Impacts of changing climate on the non-indigenous invertebrates in the northern Baltic Sea by end of the twenty-first century

Biological invasions coupled with climate change drive changes in marine biodiversity. Warming climate and changes in hydrology may either enable or hinder the spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) and little is known about how climate change modifies the richness and impacts of NIS in specific sea areas. We calculated from climate change simulations (RCO-SCOBI model) the changes in summer time conditions which northern Baltic Sea may to go through by the end of the twenty-first century, e.g., 2-5 A degrees C sea surface temperature rise and even up to 1.75 unit decrease in salinity. We reviewed the temperature and salinity tolerances (i.e., physiological tolerances and occurrence ranges in the field) of pelagic and benthic NIS established in-or with dispersal potential to-the northern Baltic Sea, and assessed how climate change will likely affect them. Our findings suggest a future decrease in barnacle larvae and an increase in Ponto-Caspian cladocerans in the pelagic community. In benthos, polychaetes, gastropods and decapods may become less abundant. By contrast, dreissenid bivalves, amphipods and mysids are expected to widen their distribution and increase in abundance in the coastal areas of the northern Baltic Sea. Potential salinity decrease acts as a major driver for NIS biogeography in the northern Baltic Sea, but temperature increase and extended summer season allow higher reproduction success in bivalves, zooplankton, amphipods and mysids. Successful NIS, i.e., coastal crustacean and bivalve species, pose a risk to native biota, as many of them have already demonstrated harmful effects in the Baltic Sea

A global-scale screening of non-native aquatic organisms to identify potentially invasive species under current and future climate conditions

The threat posed by invasive non-native species worldwide requires a global approach to identify which introduced species are likely to pose an elevated risk of impact to native species and ecosystems. To inform policy, stakeholders and management decisions on global threats to aquatic ecosystems, 195 assessors representing 120 risk assessment areas across all six inhabited continents screened 819 non-native species from 15 groups of aquatic organisms (freshwater, brackish, marine plants and animals) using the Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit. This multi-lingual decision-support tool for the risk screening of aquatic organisms provides assessors with risk scores for a species under current and future climate change conditions that, following a statistically based calibration, permits the accurate classification of species into high-, medium- and low-risk categories under current and predicted climate conditions. The 1730 screenings undertaken encompassed wide geographical areas (regions, political entities, parts thereof, water bodies, river basins, lake drainage basins, and marine regions), which permitted thresholds to be identified for almost all aquatic organismal groups screened as well as for tropical, temperate and continental climate classes, and for tropical and temperate marine ecoregions. In total, 33 species were identified as posing a ‘very high risk’ of being or becoming invasive, and the scores of several of these species under current climate increased under future climate conditions, primarily due to their wide thermal tolerances. The risk thresholds determined for taxonomic groups and climate zones provide a basis against which area-specific or climate-based calibrated thresholds may be interpreted. In turn, the risk rankings help decision-makers identify which species require an immediate ‘rapid’ management action (e.g. eradication, control) to avoid or mitigate adverse impacts, which require a full risk assessment, and which are to be restricted or banned with regard to importation and/or sale as ornamental or aquarium/fishery enhancement