The Macro-Economic and Sectoral Impacts of HIV and AIDS in India

The adverse economic impact of HIV and AIDS occurs at three levels : the individual/household, sector, and national or macro-levels. In the early phase of the epidemic, the impacts at the sector and macro-levels are rather mild and, hence, not easily measurable or quantifiable. So far in India, given the low overall prevalence, the focus has been on the effects at the level of the individual and the household. The enlisted study, by Pradhan, Sundar and Singh (2006)1 also focuses on the impact of HIV and AIDS on affected households, which it finds to be seriously adverse, and, therefore, a matter of acute concern. At the same time, the study underplays the adverse economywide impact of AIDS. Given the current prevalence rate, the extrapolation of the household-level impact to the level of the state or the national economy does not reveal a large macro-economic impact. But, this is because the survey, on which the study is based, captures the snapshot of the economy at a given point of time, while the question of the macroeconomic impact of AIDS is essentially a dynamic one. As the HIV epidemic unfolds, its impacts are bound to be deeply compounded. These impacts cannot be assessed in their totality by a mere extrapolation of the household level impact. Furthermore, in 2005, the number of HIV-infected persons exceeds 5 million, and this number is expected to quintuple to between 20 million and 25 million by 2010. With that kind of a jump in the number of HIV cases in the next 5-10 years, there is bound to be a visible impact on the national economy. At present, little or nothing is known about the potential macro-economic impact of HIV and AIDS on the Indian economy. The rough-and-ready estimates of the macro-economic costs of AIDS that are available are of no help in guiding and accelerating the response of the Government of India to the potential threat to the economy imposed by this epidemic. A quantitative assessment of the macro-economic impact of AIDS on the Indian economy, therefore, needs to be undertaken urgently to assist the policy makers. Keeping this in mind, the study analyses the macro-economic and sectoral impacts of HIV and AIDS in India, using a fivesector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.HIV, AIDS, macroeconomic impact of AIDS, computable general equilibrium

Energy variation of free non-linear oscillations

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Turning conflicts into cooperation? The role of adaptive learning and deliberation in managing natural resources conflicts in Nepal

Conflicts over natural resources are likely to escalate under changing socio-economic contexts and climate change. This paper tests the effectiveness of what we term Adaptive Learning and Deliberation (ALD) in understanding and addressing conflicts over the local management of forests and water, drawing on the experimental works in Nepal. Based on a three-year action research, the paper offers policy and practical insights on how complex and protracted conflicts can be addressed through researcher-facilitated inquiry and deliberative process which forms the core of ALD approach. The conflicts included in the study are not solely triggered by climate change but are a result of diverse environmental changes, diverse policy responses to local issues of resource governance, and wider political and economic factors. We analyze experimental practices of ALD implemented in two sites, where our research team facilitated the ALD process, gathering evidence in relation to conflicting institutional issues, all of which was then fed into researcher-mediated and evidence informed deliberations on conflict management. The analysis shows that the ALD process was helpful in rearranging local institutions to accommodate the interests of the conflicting groups and, to some extent, challenge some of the underlying exclusionary provisions of forest and water institutions which have deep social roots in the Nepalese society. We also identify three key limitations of this approach – transaction costs, the need for strong research and facilitative capacity within the research team, and the acceptance of researchers' involvement among the conflicting stakeholders. Finally, we discuss some policy implications of the findings, including potential implications for building climate resilience

Star formation around mid-infrared bubble N37: Evidence of cloud-cloud collision

We have performed a multi-wavelength analysis of a mid-infrared (MIR) bubble N37 and its surrounding environment. The selected 15$' \times$15$'$ area around the bubble contains two molecular clouds (N37 cloud; V$_{lsr}\sim$37-43 km s$^{-1}$, and C25.29+0.31; V$_{lsr}\sim$43-48 km s$^{-1}$) along the line of sight. A total of seven OB stars are identified towards the bubble N37 using photometric criteria, and two of them are spectroscopically confirmed as O9V and B0V stars. Spectro-photometric distances of these two sources confirm their physical association with the bubble. The O9V star is appeared to be the primary ionizing source of the region, which is also in agreement with the desired Lyman continuum flux analysis estimated from the 20 cm data. The presence of the expanding HII region is revealed in the N37 cloud which could be responsible for the MIR bubble. Using the $^{13}$CO line data and photometric data, several cold molecular condensations as well as clusters of young stellar objects (YSOs) are identified in the N37 cloud, revealing ongoing star formation (SF) activities. However, the analysis of ages of YSOs and the dynamical age of the HII region do not support the origin of SF due to the influence of OB stars. The position-velocity analysis of $^{13}$CO data reveals that two molecular clouds are inter-connected by a bridge-like structure, favoring the onset of a cloud-cloud collision process. The SF activities (i.e. the formation of YSOs clusters and OB stars) in the N37 cloud are possibly influenced by the cloud-cloud collision.Comment: 18 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables, Accepted for publication in the Ap

Effect of Hedging-Integrated Rule Curves on the Performance of the Pong Reservoir (India) During Scenario-Neutral Climate Change Perturbations

This study has evaluated the effects of improved, hedging-integrated reservoir rule curves on the current and climate-change-perturbed future performances of the Pong reservoir, India. The Pong reservoir was formed by impounding the snow- and glacial-dominated Beas River in Himachal Pradesh. Simulated historic and climate-change runoff series by the HYSIM rainfall-runoff model formed the basis of the analysis. The climate perturbations used delta changes in temperature (from 0° to +2 °C) and rainfall (from −10 to +10 % of annual rainfall). Reservoir simulations were then carried out, forced with the simulated runoff scenarios, guided by rule curves derived by a coupled sequent peak algorithm and genetic algorithms optimiser. Reservoir performance was summarised in terms of reliability, resilience, vulnerability and sustainability. The results show that the historic vulnerability reduced from 61 % (no hedging) to 20 % (with hedging), i.e., better than the 25 % vulnerability often assumed tolerable for most water consumers. Climate change perturbations in the rainfall produced the expected outcomes for the runoff, with higher rainfall resulting in more runoff inflow and vice-versa. Reduced runoff caused the vulnerability to worsen to 66 % without hedging; this was improved to 26 % with hedging. The fact that improved operational practices involving hedging can effectively eliminate the impacts of water shortage caused by climate change is a significant outcome of this study

Multi-wavelength study of the star-formation in the S237 H II region

We present a detailed multi-wavelength study of observations from X-ray, near-infrared to centimeter wavelengths to probe the star formation processes in the S237 region. Multi-wavelength images trace an almost sphere-like shell morphology of the region, which is filled with the 0.5--2 keV X-ray emission. The region contains two distinct environments - a bell-shaped cavity-like structure containing the peak of 1.4 GHz emission at center, and elongated filamentary features without any radio detection at edges of the sphere-like shell - where {\it Herschel} clumps are detected. Using the 1.4 GHz continuum and $^{12}$CO line data, the S237 region is found to be excited by a radio spectral type of B0.5V star and is associated with an expanding H{\sc ii} region. The photoionized gas appears to be responsible for the origin of the bell-shaped structure. The majority of molecular gas is distributed toward a massive {\it Herschel} clump (M$_{clump}$ $\sim$260 M$_{\odot}$), which contains the filamentary features and has a noticeable velocity gradient. The photometric analysis traces the clusters of young stellar objects (YSOs) mainly toward the bell-shaped structure and the filamentary features. Considering the lower dynamical age of the H\,{\sc ii} region (i.e. 0.2-0.8 Myr), these clusters are unlikely to be formed by the expansion of the H\,{\sc ii} region. Our results also show the existence of a cluster of YSOs and a massive clump at the intersection of filamentary features, indicating that the collisions of these features may have triggered cluster formation, similar to those found in Serpens South region.Comment: 21 pages, 14 figures, 1 table, Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journa