What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Sea levels of different atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (zeta) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a zeta projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of zeta change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and zeta. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the zeta change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic zeta change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.Peer reviewe

Long-term climate change impacts on regional sterodynamic sea level statistics analyzed from the MPI-ESM large ensemble simulation

Statistics of regional sterodynamic sea level variability are analyzed in terms of probability density functions of a 100-member ensemble of monthly mean sea surface height (SSH) timeseries simulated with the low-resolution Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble. To analyze the impact of climate change on sea level statistics, fields of SSH variability, skewness and excess kurtosis representing the historical period 1986-2005 are compared with similar fields from projections for the period 2081-2100 under moderate (RCP4.5) and strong (RCP8.5) climate forcing conditions. Larger deviations of the models SSH statistics from Gaussian are limited to the western and eastern tropical Pacific. Under future climate warming conditions, SSH variability of the western tropical Pacific appear more Gaussian in agreement with weaker zonal easterly wind stress pulses, suggesting a reduced El Nino Southern Oscillation activity in the western warm pool region. SSH variability changes show a complex amplitude pattern with some regions becoming less variable, e.g., off the eastern coast of the north American continent, while other regions become more variable, notably the Southern Ocean. A west (decrease)-east (increase) contrast in variability changes across the subtropical Atlantic under RCP8.5 forcing is related to changes in the gyre circulation and a declining Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in response to external forcing changes. In addition to global mean sea-level rise of 16 cm for RCP4.5 and 24 cm for RCP8.5, we diagnose regional changes in the tails of the probability density functions, suggesting a potential increased in variability-related extreme sea level events under global warmer conditions

Greenhouse-gas forced changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and related worldwide sea-level change

The effect of anthropogenic climate change in the ocean is challenging to project because atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond differently to forcing. This study focuses on changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean heat content (Δ OHC), and the spatial pattern of ocean dynamic sea level (Δ ζ). We analyse experiments following the FAFMIP protocol, in which AOGCMs are forced at the ocean surface with standardised heat, freshwater and momentum flux perturbations, typical of those produced by doubling CO 2. Using two new heat-flux-forced experiments, we find that the AMOC weakening is mainly caused by and linearly related to the North Atlantic heat flux perturbation, and further weakened by a positive coupled heat flux feedback. The quantitative relationships are model-dependent, but few models show significant AMOC change due to freshwater or momentum forcing, or to heat flux forcing outside the North Atlantic. AMOC decline causes warming at the South Atlantic-Southern Ocean interface. It does not strongly affect the global-mean vertical distribution of Δ OHC, which is dominated by the Southern Ocean. AMOC decline strongly affects Δ ζ in the North Atlantic, with smaller effects in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific. The ensemble-mean Δ ζ and Δ OHC patterns are mostly attributable to the heat added by the flux perturbation, with smaller effects from ocean heat and salinity redistribution. The ensemble spread, on the other hand, is largely due to redistribution, with pronounced disagreement among the AOGCMs

Greenhouse-gas forced changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and related worldwide sea-level change

The effect of anthropogenic climate change in the ocean is challenging to project because atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond differently to forcing. This study focuses on changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), ocean heat content (Δ OHC), and the spatial pattern of ocean dynamic sea level (Δ ζ). We analyse experiments following the FAFMIP protocol, in which AOGCMs are forced at the ocean surface with standardised heat, freshwater and momentum flux perturbations, typical of those produced by doubling CO 2. Using two new heat-flux-forced experiments, we find that the AMOC weakening is mainly caused by and linearly related to the North Atlantic heat flux perturbation, and further weakened by a positive coupled heat flux feedback. The quantitative relationships are model-dependent, but few models show significant AMOC change due to freshwater or momentum forcing, or to heat flux forcing outside the North Atlantic. AMOC decline causes warming at the South Atlantic-Southern Ocean interface. It does not strongly affect the global-mean vertical distribution of Δ OHC, which is dominated by the Southern Ocean. AMOC decline strongly affects Δ ζ in the North Atlantic, with smaller effects in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific. The ensemble-mean Δ ζ and Δ OHC patterns are mostly attributable to the heat added by the flux perturbation, with smaller effects from ocean heat and salinity redistribution. The ensemble spread, on the other hand, is largely due to redistribution, with pronounced disagreement among the AOGCMs