Extracting money from causal decision theorists

Newcomb’s problem has spawned a debate about which variant of expected utility maximisation (if any) should guide rational choice. In this paper, we provide a new argument against what is probably the most popular variant: causal decision theory (CDT). In particular, we provide two scenarios in which CDT voluntarily loses money. In the first, an agent faces a single choice and following CDT’s recommendation yields a loss of money in expectation. The second scenario extends the first to a diachronic Dutch book against CDT

Variability of radiation use efficiency in mixed pastures under varying resource availability, defoliation and time scale

Forage productivity is the product between incident radiation, the fraction of radiation absorbed by the canopy (fAPAR) and radiation use efficiency (RUE). The extent to which forage productivity may be estimated through remote sensing depends on the relative effects of stress and defoliation on fAPAR and RUE. In a mixed pasture, we determined the relative impact of resource availability and defoliation on forage productivity, fAPAR and RUE, and we evaluated the impact of time scale on fAPAR and RUE under stress conditions. We conducted a one-year experiment in a temperate-mixed pasture subjected to different resource availability treatments and defoliation management. We measured RUE and fAPAR with different temporal windows. RUE was less responsive than fAPAR to changes in resource availability and defoliation intensity. However, RUE slightly decreased under water stress and increased under severe defoliation. Additionally, RUE variability during regrowth and among treatments depended on the temporal scale of observation: RUE was more variable for 12-day periods than 45- or 90-day periods. Our results reinforce the value of fAPAR as an explanatory variable of the variations in forage productivity due to changes in resource availability and management. In addition, the temporal scale of observation affects RUE variability. Thus, most variations of forage productivity may be captured by monitoring systems based on remote sensing of fAPAR provided that the time scale is coarse enough. However, the contrasting response of RUE and fAPAR to defoliation indicates a potential weakness of such a system when situations with contrasting defoliation regime are compared.Fil: Grigera, Gonzalo. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía; ArgentinaFil: Oesterheld, Martin. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Agronomía. Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiológicas y Ecológicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura; Argentin

Pastos y pastizales : Ciencia, docencia y desarrollo de tecnología

Esta charla relatará tres breves historias, una para cada uno de los tres elementos del título: la ciencia, la docencia y el desarrollo de tecnología. Pretendo contar lo que hago, lo que hacemos quienes nos dedicamos a la vida académica: a la investigación, la docencia y el desarrollo de tecnología.Academia Nacional de Agronomía y Veterinari

Los proyectos legislativos previsionales en Argentina y Chile durante el período 2005-2010. Un estudio comparado

Both Néstor Kirchner’s (2003-2007) and CristinaFernández’s (2007-2015) governemnts in Argentinaand Michelle Bachelet´s (2006-2010) in Chile inher-ited social security systems in crisis; with problems of financing,coverage, level of retirement and, consequently,with poverty problems in older adults. In the absence tocoverage shortcomings programs were launched to facilitateaccess to retirement. This type of measures generatedan intense debate with regard to the overall working ofthe system. Appealing to the perspective of historical sociology,this article focuses on social security strategies anddraft legislation in pensions advanced in both countries in2005-2010. It compares proposals to improve coverage,level of retirement and, consequently, the distribution ofincome and the reduction of poverty.Los gobiernos de Néstor Kirchner (2003-2007) yCristina Fernández (2007-2015) en Argentina y deMichelle Bachelet (2006-2010) en Chile heredaronsistemas previsionales en crisis; con problemasde financiamiento, cobertura y nivel de haberes.Ante la falta de cobertura se lanzaron programaspara facilitar el acceso a la jubilación. Este tipo demedidas generaron debates en torno al funcionamientogeneral del sistema. El presente artículoversa sobre las estrategias y proyectos legislativosen materia previsional propuestos en Argentina yChile durante el período 2005-2010. A partir de laperspectiva de la sociología histórica, compara laspropuestas para mejorar la cobertura y el nivel delos haberes

Vom "Sezessionsgespenst" zum Koalitionspartner - Regionale Parteien im politischen System Indiens

Die Bemerkung von Premierminister Atal Behari Vajpayee am 6. Dezember 2000, dem Jahrestag der Zerstörung der Babri Masjid in Ayodhya, es habe sich bei der Attacke auf die Moschee um einen Ausdruck nationaler Empfindung gehandelt, rief wohl den lautstarken Protest der Opposition (Indian National Congress - INC, linke und andere Parteien) hervor, die von der Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) geführte Regierungskoalition geriet aber deshalb nicht ins Wanken. Diese so genannte Nationaldemokratische Allianz, eine aus 24 Parteien bestehende Koalition, hatte ein Jahr zuvor bei den 13. Wahlen zur Lok Sabha, der politisch gewichtigeren der beiden Kammern des Zentralparlaments in New Delhi, den Sieg über ihre Kontrahenten davongetragen. Das gemeinsame Interesse der beteiligten Parteien an der Fortsetzung der Regierungstätigkeit stand über Befürchtungen, die BJP als die nach Anzahl von Sitz und Stimme führende Kraft der Koalition könnte zur Rhetorik und Politik vergangener Jahre zurückkehren

Ing. Agr. Gino Tomé (1918-2018) : Centésimo aniversario del natalicio

Gino A. Tomé nació en Buenos Aires el 8 de febrero de 1918. Obtuvo el título de Ingeniero Agrónomo de la Universidad de Buenos Aires a los 21 años de edad, con diploma de honor. Se graduó como Master of Science de la Universidad estatal de Iowa, en Estados Unidos, con una tesis sobre genética de Lotus tenuis y Lotus corniculatus que fue publicada en la revista de la Sociedad Norteamericana de Agronomía.Academia Nacional de Agronomía y Veterinari

Incentivizing honest performative predictions with proper scoring rules

Proper scoring rules incentivize experts to accurately report beliefs, assuming predictions cannot influence outcomes. We relax this assumption and investigate incentives when predictions are performative, i.e., when they can influence the outcome of the prediction, such as when making public predictions about the stock market. We say a prediction is a fixed point if it accurately reflects the expert's beliefs after that prediction has been made. We show that in this setting, reports maximizing expected score generally do not reflect an expert's beliefs, and we give bounds on the inaccuracy of such reports. We show that, for binary predictions, if the influence of the expert's prediction on outcomes is bounded, it is possible to define scoring rules under which optimal reports are arbitrarily close to fixed points. However, this is impossible for predictions over more than two outcomes. We also perform numerical simulations in a toy setting, showing that our bounds are tight in some situations and that prediction error is often substantial (greater than 5-10%). Lastly, we discuss alternative notions of optimality, including performative stability, and show that they incentivize reporting fixed points.Comment: Accepted for the 39th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2023