641 research outputs found
Strategies used as spectroscopy of financial markets reveal new stylized facts
We propose a new set of stylized facts quantifying the structure of financial
markets. The key idea is to study the combined structure of both investment
strategies and prices in order to open a qualitatively new level of
understanding of financial and economic markets. We study the detailed order
flow on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China for the whole year of 2003. This
enormous dataset allows us to compare (i) a closed national market (A-shares)
with an international market (B-shares), (ii) individuals and institutions and
(iii) real investors to random strategies with respect to timing that share
otherwise all other characteristics. We find that more trading results in
smaller net return due to trading frictions. We unveiled quantitative power
laws with non-trivial exponents, that quantify the deterioration of performance
with frequency and with holding period of the strategies used by investors.
Random strategies are found to perform much better than real ones, both for
winners and losers. Surprising large arbitrage opportunities exist, especially
when using zero-intelligence strategies. This is a diagnostic of possible
inefficiencies of these financial markets.Comment: 13 pages including 5 figures and 1 tabl
Turnover, account value and diversification of real traders: evidence of collective portfolio optimizing behavior
Despite the availability of very detailed data on financial market,
agent-based modeling is hindered by the lack of information about real trader
behavior. This makes it impossible to validate agent-based models, which are
thus reverse-engineering attempts. This work is a contribution to the building
of a set of stylized facts about the traders themselves. Using the client
database of Swissquote Bank SA, the largest on-line Swiss broker, we find
empirical relationships between turnover, account values and the number of
assets in which a trader is invested. A theory based on simple mean-variance
portfolio optimization that crucially includes variable transaction costs is
able to reproduce faithfully the observed behaviors. We finally argue that our
results bring into light the collective ability of a population to construct a
mean-variance portfolio that takes into account the structure of transaction
costsComment: 26 pages, 9 figures, Fig. 8 fixe
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Information diffusion in the U.S. real estate investment trust market
This study examines the information diffusion process in the U.S. Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) market with a focus on the impacts of changing market environments, information supply, and information demand on the lead-lag effect. The results suggest that a significant lead-lag relationship exists between the lagged returns of big REITs and the current returns of small REITs. This relationship has slightly decreased along with policy and environment changes that occurred in the U.S. REIT market during the study period from 1986 to 2012, while still remaining significant in the most recent REIT market. The process of information diffusion is becoming unstable in recent years and the reverse lead-lag effect from small REITs to big REITs is observed especially when REIT market liquidity and return volatility are high. The lead-lag effect among REITs is driven largely by slow adjustment to negative information, which is magnified by a lack of information supply, especially as demand for such information increases. Finally, information flow from REITs with more media coverage to those with less media coverage becomes even more sluggish than the information flow from big REITs to small REITs
How do risk attitudes affect measured confidence?
We examine the relationship between confidence in own absolute performance and risk attitudes using two confidence elicitation procedures: self-reported (non-incentivised) confidence and an incentivised procedure that elicits the certainty equivalent of a bet based on performance. The former procedure reproduces the “hard-easy effect” (underconfidence in easy tasks and overconfidence in hard tasks) found in a large number of studies using non-incentivised self-reports. The latter procedure produces general underconfidence, which is significantly reduced, but not eliminated when we filter out the effects of risk attitudes. Finally, we find that self-reported confidence correlates significantly with features of individual risk attitudes including parameters of individual probability weighting
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