The healthy beverage index is not associated with insulin resistance, prediabetes and type 2 diabetes risk in the Rotterdam Study

Purpose:Whether beverage quality affects changes in glycaemic traits and type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk is unknown. We examined associations of a previously developed Healthy Beverage Index (HBI) with insulin resistance, and risk of prediabetes and T2D. Methods: We included 6769 participants (59% female, 62.0 ± 7.8 years) from the Rotterdam Study cohort free of diabetes at baseline. Diet was assessed using food-frequency questionnaires at baseline. The HBI included 10 components (energy from beverages, meeting fluid requirements, water, coffee and tea, low-fat milk, diet drinks, juices, alcohol, full-fat milk, and sugar-sweetened beverages), with a total score ranging from 0 to 100. A higher score represents a healthier beverage pattern. Data on study outcomes were available from 1993 to 2015. Multivariable linear mixed models and Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to examine associations of the HBI (per 10 points increment) with two measurements of HOMA-IR (a proxy for insulin resistance), and risk of prediabetes and T2D. Results: During follow-up, we documented 1139 prediabetes and 784 T2D cases. Mean ± SD of the HBI was 66.8 ± 14.4. Higher HBI score was not associated with HOMA-IR (β: 0.003; 95% CI − 0.007, 0.014), or with risk of prediabetes (HR: 1.01; 95% CI 0.97, 1.06), or T2D (HR: 1.01; 95% CI 0.96, 1.07). Conclusion: Our findings suggest no major role for overall beverage intake quality assessed with the HBI in insulin resistance, prediabetes and T2D incidence. The HBI may not be an adequate tool to assess beverage intake quality in our population.</p

Impact of mitigation measures on the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile: preliminary data for the period April 14 to May 14

Objetivo: Modelar el curso de la pandemia COVID-19 en Chile y proyectar la demanda de recursos hospitalarios y letalidad en escenarios simulados: primero, recurriendo a distintas medidas de mitigación para contener la propagación en un mes —desde el 14 de abril hasta el 14 de mayo del 2020— y, segundo, en el supuesto contagio del 70% de la población, se ún edad, sin límite de tiempo. Métodos: Utilizamos como base el número de contagios confirmados con SARS-CoV-2 en Chile hasta el 14 de abril del 2020 (8 273 casos, 94 muertes). Para los distintos escenarios, asumimos un número reproductivo básico que va desde R0=2,5 hasta R0=1,5. La proyección de la demanda hospitalaria y letalidad por edad se fundamentaron en reportes italianos y británicos. Resultados: Estimamos que para el 14 de mayo del 2020 habría en Chile 2 019 775 contagiados y 15 068 fallecidos en ausencia de medidas de mitigación (R0=2,5). Al implementar medidas que reduzcan R0 a 1,5 (detección temprana y aislamiento de casos, cuarentena y distanciamiento social de mayores de 70 años), el número de contagios y letalidad disminuirían a 94 235 y 703 respectivamente. Sin embargo, la demanda hospitalaria aún sobrepasaría la capacidad de respuesta. La población de mayor riesgo la componen los mayores de 60 años. Conclusión: Encontramos evidencia a favor de las medidas de mitigación implementadas por el Gobierno chileno. Sin embargo, medidas más estrictas son necesarias para no colapsar el sistema sanitario, que cuenta con menos recursos hospitalarios que los proyectados. Es esencial aumentar la capacidad hospitalaria en términos de equipamiento y entrenamiento del personal de salud.Objetive: To model disease progression, healthcare demand and case fatality rate attributed to COVID-19 pandemic that may occur in Chile in 1-month time, by simulating different scenarios according to diverse mitigation measures hypothetically implemented. Furthermore, we aimed to estimate the same outcomes assuming that 70% of the population will be infected by SARS-CoV-2, with no time limit assumption. Methods: We based on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Chile up to April 14th 2020 (8 273 cases and 94 deaths). For the simulated scenarios we assumed basic reproduction numbers ranging from R0=2.5 to R0=1.5. The estimation of the number of patients that would require intensive care and the age-specific case fatality rate were based on data provided by the Imperial College of London and the Instituto Superiore di Sanità en Italia. Results: If no mitigation measures were applied (R0=2.5), by May 25, Chile would have 2 019 775 cases and 15 068 deaths. If mitigations measures were implemented to decrease R0 to 1.5 (early detection of cases, quarantine, social distancing of elderly), the number of cases and deaths would importantly decrease. Nonetheless, the demand for in-hospital care including intensive care would exceed the available resources. Our age-specific analysis showed that population over 60 years are at higher risk of needing intensive care and death. Conclusion: Our evidence supports the mitigation measures, implemented by the Chilean government. Nevertheless, more stringent measures are needed to prevent the health care system´s collapse due to shortfall of resources to confront the COVID-19 pandemic

Socioeconomic position, lifestyle habits and biomarkers of epigenetic aging: a multi-cohort analysis

Differences in health status by socioeconomic position (SEP) tend to be more evident at older ages, suggesting the involvement of a biological mechanism responsive to the accumulation of deleterious exposures across the lifespan. DNA methylation (DNAm) has been proposed as a biomarker of biological aging that conserves memory of endogenous and exogenous stress during life. We examined the association of education level, as an indicator of SEP, and lifestyle-related variables with four biomarkers of age-dependent DNAm dysregulation: the total number of stochastic epigenetic mutations (SEMs) and three epigenetic clocks (Horvath, Hannum and Levine), in 18 cohorts spanning 12 countries. The four biological aging biomarkers were associated with education and different sets of risk factors independently, and the magnitude of the effects differed depending on the biomarker and the predictor. On average, the effect of low education on epigenetic aging was comparable with those of other lifestyle-related risk factors (obesity, alcohol intake), with the exception of smoking, which had a significantly stronger effect. Our study shows that low education is an independent predictor of accelerated biological (epigenetic) aging and that epigenetic clocks appear to be good candidates for disentangling the biological pathways underlying social inequalities in healthy aging and longevity

Dairy product consumption in relation to incident prediabetes and longitudinal insulin resistance in the Rotterdam study

Evidence suggests neutral or moderately beneficial effects of dairy intake on type 2 diabetes mellitus risk. Nevertheless, evidence on associations with early phases of type 2 diabetes remains inconsistent. We aimed to examine associations between dairy-type intake with prediabetes risk and longitudinal insulin resistance. The analytic sample consisted of 6770 participants (aged 62 ± 4 years, 59% female) free of (pre-)diabetes at baseline from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study. Dairy intake was measured at baseline using food frequency questionnaires. Data on prediabetes (fasting blood glucose 6.1–6.9 mmol/L or non-fasting 7.7–11.1 mmol/L) and the longitudinal homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) were available from 1993–2015. Associations with these outcomes were analyzed with dairy intake in quartiles (Q4 vs. Q1) and continuous using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models and linear mixed models. During a mean follow-up of 11.3 ± 4.8 years, 1139 incident prediabetes cases were documented (18.8%). In models adjusting for sociodemographic, lifestyle and dietary factors, a higher intake of high-fat yogurt was associated with lower prediabetes risk (HRQ4vsQ1 0.70, 95% CI 0.54–0.91 and HRserving/day 0.67, 0.51–0.89). In addition, a higher intake of high-fat milk was associated with lower prediabetes risk (HRQ4vsQ1 0.81, 0.67–0.97, HRserving/day 0.88, 0.79–0.99). Associations were found for low-fat dairy, low-fat milk and total cheese with a higher prediabetes risk (HRserving/day ranging from 1.05–1.07, not significant in quartiles). Associations with longitudinal HOMA-IR were similar to prediabetes for high-fat yogurt, low-fat dairy and low-fat milk. Fermented dairy, low-fat yogurt, high-fat cheese, cream and ice cream were not associated with the outcomes. In conclusion, a higher intake of high-fat yogurt was associated with a lower prediabetes risk and lower longitudinal insulin resistance. Additionally, high-fat milk was associated with a lower prediabetes risk. Some low-fat dairy types were inconsistently associated with these outcomes. Studies are needed to confirm associations and to examine the influence of confounding by population characteristic

DNA methylation of blood cells is associated with prevalent type 2 diabetes in a meta-analysis of four European cohorts

Background: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a heterogeneous disease with well-known genetic and environmental risk factors contributing to its prevalence. Epigenetic mechanisms related to changes in DNA methylation (DNAm), may also contribute to T2D risk, but larger studies are required to discover novel markers, and to confirm existing ones. Results: We performed a large meta-analysis of individual epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) of prevalent T2D conducted in four European studies using peripheral blood DNAm. Analysis of differentially methylated regions (DMR) was also undertaken, based on the meta-analysis results. We found three novel CpGs associated with prevalent T2D in Europeans at cg00144180 (HDAC4), cg16765088 (near SYNM) and cg24704287 (near MIR23A) and confirmed three CpGs previously identified (mapping to TXNIP, ABCG1 and CPT1A). We also identified 77 T2D associated DMRs, most of them hypomethylated in T2D cases versus controls. In adjusted regressions among diabetic-free participants in ALSPAC, we found that all six CpGs identified in the meta-EWAS were associated with white cell-types. We estimated that these six CpGs captured 11% of the variation in T2D, which was similar to the variation explained by the model including only the common risk factors of BMI, sex, age and smoking (R2 = 10.6%). Conclusions: This study identifies novel loci associated with T2D in Europeans. We also demonstrate associations of the same loci with other traits. Future studies should investigate if our findings are generalizable in non-European populations, and potential roles of these epigenetic markers in T2D etiology or in determining long term consequences of T2D

Phytoestrogen supplementation and body composition in postmenopausal women: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials

Phytoestrogen-based medications are commonly used by menopausal women, and especially by obese postmenopausal women, to relieve menopausal symptoms. Substitution of animal with soy protein is often used in weight loss regimens, yet the effect of phytoestrogens, the main constituent of soy foods, on body composition is not completely understood. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the associations between phytoestrogen supplementation and body weight and the main parameters of body composition in postmenopausal women. A literature search was done using 5 electronic databases from inception to April 2018. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with postmenopausal women comparing phytoestrogen supplementation followed by usual diet and placebo were included in the present meta-analysis. From 5932 references, we identified 23 RCTs that met our inclusion criteria, with a total of 1880 postmenopausal women. No association was observed between phytoestrogen supplementation and body weight, body mass index, waist and hip circumference, total fat mass or percentage of body fat. However, the use of phytoestrogens supplementation was associated with a slight decrease in waist-hip ratio; the pooled mean difference was −0.01 cm (95%CI: −0.01 to −0.006). In subgroup analysis, we found a modest decrease in body weight with phytoestrogens supplementation compared with placebo in healthy postmenopausal women [pooled mean difference of changes −0.28 kg (95%CI: −0.52 to −0.04)] and in RCTs with a median number of participants of 66 or less [pooled mean difference of changes −0.49 kg (95%CI: −0.87 to −0.11)]. In contrast, phytoestrogen supplementation was associated with increased body weight in postmenopausal women with preexisting metabolic disorders (prediabetes, type 2 diabetes, prehypertension and hyperlipidemia) [pooled mean difference of changes: 0.78 kg(95%CI: 0.53–1.03)]. In addition, there were some indications that some types of phytoestrogens, such as daidzein, but not soy products or isoflavone mix, could lead to modest adverse changes in body composition in menopausal women. Therefore, future studies should investigate the potential adverse effects of phytoestrogen supplementation on body composition among postmenopausal women

Phytoestrogen supplementation and body composition in postmenopausal women: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

Phytoestrogen-based medications are commonly used by menopausal women, and especially by obese postmenopausal women, to relieve menopausal symptoms. Substitution of animal with soy protein is often used in weight loss regimens, yet the effect of phytoestrogens, the main constituent of soy foods, on body composition is not completely understood. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the associations between phytoestrogen supplementation and body weight and the main parameters of body composition in postmenopausal women. A literature search was done using 5 electronic databases from inception to April 2018. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with postmenopausal women comparing phytoestrogen supplementation followed by usual diet and placebo were included in the present meta-analysis. From 5932 references, we identified 23 RCTs that met our inclusion criteria, with a total of 1880 postmenopausal women. No association was observed between phytoestrogen supplementation and body weight, body mass index, waist and hip circumference, total fat mass or percentage of body fat. However, the use of phytoestrogens supplementation was associated with a slight decrease in waist-hip ratio; the pooled mean difference was -0.01 cm (95%CI: -0.01 to -0.006). In subgroup analysis, we found a modest decrease in body weight with phytoestrogens supplementation compared with placebo in healthy postmenopausal women [pooled mean difference of changes -0.28 kg (95%CI: -0.52 to -0.04)] and in RCTs with a median number of participants of 66 or less [pooled mean difference of changes -0.49 kg (95%CI: -0.87 to -0.11)]. In contrast, phytoestrogen supplementation was associated with increased body weight in postmenopausal women with preexisting metabolic disorders (prediabetes, type 2 diabetes, prehypertension and hyperlipidemia) [pooled mean difference of changes: 0.78 kg (95%CI: 0.53-1.03)]. In addition, there were some indications that some types of phytoestrogens, such as daidzein, but not soy products or isoflavone mix, could lead to modest adverse changes in body composition in menopausal women. Therefore, future studies should investigate the potential adverse effects of phytoestrogen supplementation on body composition among postmenopausal women

Numero de años con diabetes mellitus tipo 2 y su asociación con la sospecha de deterioro cognitivo en personas mayores chilenas: Un estudio transversal

Introduction: The average life expectancy, as well as the prevalence of Type 2 diabetes (T2D), is increasing worldwide. Population-based studies have demonstrated that the duration of T2D has been associated with cognitive impairment. However, despite the high prevalence of T2D and cognitive impairment in Chile, the association between years with T2D and suspicion of cognitive impairment has not yet been investigated. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between duration of T2D and suspicion of cognitive impairment in Chilean older adults. Material and Methods: 1,040 older adults aged ≥60 years from the Chilean National Health Survey (2009–2010) were included. Suspicion of cognitive impairment was assessed by the abbreviated Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). The number of years with T2D was self-reported and categorised into four groups.  Poisson Regression analysis was used to assess the association between altered MMSE and the number of years with DM2, adjusted by potential confounders including socio-demographic, lifestyle, adiposity and health-related factors. Results: When the analyses were adjusted for socio-demographic factors, people who had T2D for 15 to 24 and ≥25 years had 2.2-times (95% CI: 1.07; 3.33) and 5.8-times (95% CI: 3.81; 11.0) higher relative risk (RR) of cognitive impairment, compared to those without T2D. When the analyses were additionally adjusted for lifestyle and health-related covariates, the RR for cognitive impairment was 1.76-times (95% CI: 1.02; 2.50) and 4.54-times (95% CI: 2.70; 6.38) higher for those who had T2D for 14-24 years and ≥25 years, respectively. Conclusions: Number of years with T2D was associated with suspicion of cognitive impairment. A longer duration of T2D was associated with a higher likelihood of cognitive impairment in the Chilean older population, independently of confounder factors included in the study.Introduction: La esperanza de vida está aumentando en todo el mundo, así como la diabetes tipo 2 (DM2). Estudios poblacionales han demostrado que la duración de la DM2 se ha asociado con el deterioro cognitivo. Sin embargo, a pesar de la alta prevalencia de DM2 y deterioro cognitivo en Chile, aún no se ha investigado la asociación entre años con DM2 y la sospecha de deterioro cognitivo. El objetivo del estudio fue investigar la asociación entre la duración de la diabetes mellitus 2 (DM2) y la sospecha de deterioro cognitivo en personas mayores chilenas. Métodos: Participaron 1.040 personas ≥60 años de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud de Chile (2009-2010). El deterioro cognitivo se evaluó mediante el Mini Examen del Estado Mental abreviado (MMSE). El número de años con DM2 fue categorizado en cuatro grupos. Para valorar la asociación entre MMSE alterado y el número de años con DM2, se utilizó una regresión de  Poisson, ajustados a posibles factores de confusión sociodemograficos, de estilos de vida, adiposidad y salud. Resultados: Cuando se ajustaron los análisis por factores sociodemográficos, las personas con 15 a 24 y ≥25 años con DM2 presentaron 2,2 veces (IC 95%: 1,07; 3,33) y 5,8 veces (IC 95%: 3,81; 11,0) riesgo relativo (RR) de deterioro cognitivo, en comparación con aquellas sin DM2. Luego de ajustar adicionalmente los análisis para las covariables relacionadas con el estilo de vida y la salud, el RR para deterioro cognitivo fue 1,76 veces (IC 95%: 1,02; 2,50) y 4,54 veces (IC 95%: 2,70; 6,38) más alto para aquellas personas con 14-24 y ≥25 años de DM2. Conclusiones: Se asoció el número de años con DM2 con la sospecha de deterioro cognitivo. Una mayor duración de la DM2 se asoció con una mayor probabilidad de deterioro cognitivo en la población mayor chilena

Dynamic interventions to control COVID-19 pandemic: a multivariate prediction modelling study comparing 16 worldwide countries

Daniel Reidpath - ORCID: 0000-0002-8796-0420 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8796-0420To date, non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) have been the mainstay for controlling the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. While NPIs are effective in preventing health systems overload, these long-term measures are likely to have significant adverse economic consequences. Therefore, many countries are currently considering to lift the NPIs—increasing the likelihood of disease resurgence. In this regard, dynamic NPIs, with intervals of relaxed social distancing, may provide a more suitable alternative. However, the ideal frequency and duration of intermittent NPIs, and the ideal “break” when interventions can be temporarily relaxed, remain uncertain, especially in resource-poor settings. We employed a multivariate prediction model, based on up-to-date transmission and clinical parameters, to simulate outbreak trajectories in 16 countries, from diverse regions and economic categories. In each country, we then modelled the impacts on intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths over an 18-month period for following scenarios: (1) no intervention, (2) consecutive cycles of mitigation measures followed by a relaxation period, and (3) consecutive cycles of suppression measures followed by a relaxation period. We defined these dynamic interventions based on reduction of the mean reproduction number during each cycle, assuming a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2.2 for no intervention, and subsequent effective reproduction numbers (R) of 0.8 and 0.5 for illustrative dynamic mitigation and suppression interventions, respectively. We found that dynamic cycles of 50-day mitigation followed by a 30-day relaxation reduced transmission, however, were unsuccessful in lowering ICU hospitalizations below manageable limits. By contrast, dynamic cycles of 50-day suppression followed by a 30-day relaxation kept the ICU demands below the national capacities. Additionally, we estimated that a significant number of new infections and deaths, especially in resource-poor countries, would be averted if these dynamic suppression measures were kept in place over an 18-month period. This multi-country analysis demonstrates that intermittent reductions of R below 1 through a potential combination of suppression interventions and relaxation can be an effective strategy for COVID-19 pandemic control. Such a “schedule” of social distancing might be particularly relevant to low-income countries, where a single, prolonged suppression intervention is unsustainable. Efficient implementation of dynamic suppression interventions, therefore, confers a pragmatic option to: (1) prevent critical care overload and deaths, (2) gain time to develop preventive and clinical measures, and (3) reduce economic hardship globally.https://doi.org/10.1007/s10654-020-00649-w35pubpub