Parameter and model uncertainty in a life-table model for fine particles (PM2.5): a statistical modeling study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The estimation of health impacts involves often uncertain input variables and assumptions which have to be incorporated into the model structure. These uncertainties may have significant effects on the results obtained with model, and, thus, on decision making. Fine particles (PM_2.5) are believed to cause major health impacts, and, consequently, uncertainties in their health impact assessment have clear relevance to policy-making. We studied the effects of various uncertain input variables by building a life-table model for fine particles.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Life-expectancy of the Helsinki metropolitan area population and the change in life-expectancy due to fine particle exposures were predicted using a life-table model. A number of parameter and model uncertainties were estimated. Sensitivity analysis for input variables was performed by calculating rank-order correlations between input and output variables. The studied model uncertainties were (i) plausibility of mortality outcomes and (ii) lag, and parameter uncertainties (iii) exposure-response coefficients for different mortality outcomes, and (iv) exposure estimates for different age groups. The monetary value of the years-of-life-lost and the relative importance of the uncertainties related to monetary valuation were predicted to compare the relative importance of the monetary valuation on the health effect uncertainties.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The magnitude of the health effects costs depended mostly on discount rate, exposure-response coefficient, and plausibility of the cardiopulmonary mortality. Other mortality outcomes (lung cancer, other non-accidental and infant mortality) and lag had only minor impact on the output. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainties associated with cardiopulmonary mortality in the fine particle impact assessment when compared with other uncertainties.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>When estimating life-expectancy, the estimates used for cardiopulmonary exposure-response coefficient, discount rate, and plausibility require careful assessment, while complicated lag estimates can be omitted without this having any major effect on the results.</p

Association between 5-HT2A, TPH1 and GNB3 genotypes and response to typical neuroleptics: a serotonergic approach

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Schizophrenia is a common psychiatric disease affecting about 1% of population. One major problem in the treatment is finding the right the drug for the right patients. However, pharmacogenetic results in psychiatry can seldom be replicated.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We selected three candidate genes associated with serotonergic neurotransmission for the study: serotonin 2A (<it>5-HT2A</it>) receptor gene, tryptophan hydroxylase 1 (<it>TPH1</it>) gene, and G-protein beta-3 subunit (<it>GNB3</it>) gene. We recruited 94 schizophrenia patients representing extremes in treatment response to typical neuroleptics: 43 were good responders and 51 were poor responders. The control group consisted of 392 healthy blood donors.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We do, in part, replicate the association between <it>5-HT2A </it>T102C polymorphism and response to typical neuroleptics. In female patients, C/C genotype was significantly more common in non-responders than in responders [OR = 6.04 (95% Cl 1.67–21.93), p = 0.005] or in the control population [OR = 4.16 (95% CI 1.46–11.84), p = 0.005]. <it>TPH1 </it>A779C C/A genotype was inversely associated with good treatment response when compared with non-responders [OR = 0.59 (95% Cl 0.36–0.98), p = 0.030] or with the controls [OR = 0.44 (95% CI 0.23–0.86, p = 0.016], and <it>GNB3 </it>C825T C/T genotype showed a trend-like positive association among the male patients with a good response compared with non-responders [OR = 3.48 (95% Cl 0.92–13.25), p = 0.061], and a clearer association when compared with the controls [OR = 4.95 (95% CI 1.56–15.70), p = 0.004].</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>More findings on the consequences of functional polymorphisms for the role of serotonin in the development of brain and serotonergic neurotransmission are needed before more detailed hypotheses regarding susceptibility and outcome in schizophrenia can be formulated. The present results may highlight some of the biological mechanisms in different courses of schizophrenia between men and women.</p