A synthesis of evidence for policy from behavioural science during COVID-19

Scientific evidence regularly guides policy decisions1, with behavioural science increasingly part of this process2. In April 2020, an influential paper3 proposed 19 policy recommendations ('claims') detailing how evidence from behavioural science could contribute to efforts to reduce impacts and end the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we assess 747 pandemic-related research articles that empirically investigated those claims. We report the scale of evidence and whether evidence supports them to indicate applicability for policymaking. Two independent teams, involving 72 reviewers, found evidence for 18 of 19 claims, with both teams finding evidence supporting 16 (89%) of those 18 claims. The strongest evidence supported claims that anticipated culture, polarization and misinformation would be associated with policy effectiveness. Claims suggesting trusted leaders and positive social norms increased adherence to behavioural interventions also had strong empirical support, as did appealing to social consensus or bipartisan agreement. Targeted language in messaging yielded mixed effects and there were no effects for highlighting individual benefits or protecting others. No available evidence existed to assess any distinct differences in effects between using the terms 'physical distancing' and 'social distancing'. Analysis of 463 papers containing data showed generally large samples; 418 involved human participants with a mean of 16,848 (median of 1,699). That statistical power underscored improved suitability of behavioural science research for informing policy decisions. Furthermore, by implementing a standardized approach to evidence selection and synthesis, we amplify broader implications for advancing scientific evidence in policy formulation and prioritization

Lossy Joint Source-Channel Coding Using Raptor Codes

The straightforward application of Shannon's separation principle may entail a significant suboptimality in practical systems with limited coding delay and complexity. This is particularly evident when the lossy source code is based on entropy-coded quantization. In fact, it is well known that entropy coding is not robust to residual channel errors. In this paper, a joint source-channel coding scheme is advocated that combines the advantages and simplicity of entropy-coded quantization with the robustness of linear codes. The idea is to combine entropy coding and channel coding into a single linear encoding stage. If the channel is symmetric, the scheme can asymptotically achieve the optimal rate-distortion limit. However, its advantages are more clearly evident under finite coding delay and complexity. The sequence of quantization indices is decomposed into bitplanes, and each bitplane is independently mapped onto a sequence of channel coded symbols. The coding rate of each bitplane is chosen according to the bitplane conditional entropy rate. The use of systematic raptor encoders is proposed, in order to obtain a continuum of coding rates with a single basic encoding algorithm. Simulations show that the proposed scheme can outperform the separated baseline scheme for finite coding length and comparable complexity and, as expected, it is much more robust to channel errors in the case of channel capacity mismatch

The globalizability of temporal discounting

Economic inequality is associated with preferences for smaller, immediate gains over larger, delayed ones. Such temporal discounting may feed into rising global inequality, yet it is unclear whether it is a function of choice preferences or norms, or rather the absence of sufficient resources for immediate needs. It is also not clear whether these reflect true differences in choice patterns between income groups. We tested temporal discounting and five intertemporal choice anomalies using local currencies and value standards in 61 countries (N = 13,629). Across a diverse sample, we found consistent, robust rates of choice anomalies. Lower-income groups were not significantly different, but economic inequality and broader financial circumstances were clearly correlated with population choice patterns